1 00:01:05,214 --> 00:01:07,824 Vinney: Dear friends, Vinney Chopra back again. 2 00:01:07,974 --> 00:01:12,684 Hey, I've got a great friend and a super teacher in financial stock 3 00:01:12,684 --> 00:01:17,204 market and all the, you might have seen a lot of gurus or listened to 4 00:01:17,354 --> 00:01:20,864 and watch you haven't seen anything. 5 00:01:21,074 --> 00:01:23,924 What we are gonna discuss today is gonna blow your mind. 6 00:01:24,224 --> 00:01:26,084 And Amit Chan is here. 7 00:01:26,084 --> 00:01:31,004 My very good friend, a great teacher, so hold on if you're in the car. 8 00:01:31,309 --> 00:01:35,659 Go ahead and listen to it, but come back to your office and open up the YouTube 9 00:01:35,719 --> 00:01:39,049 and look at the whole presentation live. 10 00:01:39,499 --> 00:01:39,889 Thank you. 11 00:01:39,889 --> 00:01:40,369 Chandan. 12 00:01:40,669 --> 00:01:40,789 Chand. 13 00:01:41,089 --> 00:01:42,589 Amit, how are you brother? 14 00:01:42,739 --> 00:01:49,099 You are smell chandan in India is the beautiful wood that gives fragrance, 15 00:01:49,129 --> 00:01:54,949 and I always say that, Amit, you bring so much fragrance in financial terms, 16 00:01:55,309 --> 00:02:00,079 financial, stock market, and how to really grow your money and how to look at. 17 00:02:00,564 --> 00:02:05,064 Everything happening in our country, US is going through some big turmoil, 18 00:02:05,124 --> 00:02:07,154 as so I'm very excited to have you. 19 00:02:07,684 --> 00:02:08,524 God bless you. 20 00:02:08,554 --> 00:02:09,244 Amit: Hello Viji. 21 00:02:09,244 --> 00:02:10,534 Thank you so much for having me here. 22 00:02:10,824 --> 00:02:12,144 That's exactly what I'm gonna do. 23 00:02:12,204 --> 00:02:14,574 As in the past I've done a couple podcasts with you. 24 00:02:14,844 --> 00:02:18,824 So today I am going to discuss what's happening in the markets Yes. 25 00:02:18,944 --> 00:02:22,184 And how it impacts the financial markets for that matter. 26 00:02:22,574 --> 00:02:22,664 Yeah. 27 00:02:22,694 --> 00:02:25,979 And any of your people who wanna learn from me, I run a, a. I 28 00:02:26,369 --> 00:02:27,749 provide the service for free. 29 00:02:27,899 --> 00:02:29,729 There is a free course that I've created. 30 00:02:29,729 --> 00:02:31,169 We have a free telegram community. 31 00:02:31,169 --> 00:02:33,419 Towards the end, I'll share that information, but just go 32 00:02:33,419 --> 00:02:37,349 to www.informedandinvested.com. 33 00:02:37,349 --> 00:02:40,409 Again, www do informed and invested.com. 34 00:02:40,409 --> 00:02:40,499 Yes. 35 00:02:40,809 --> 00:02:44,379 Sign up to our free course and you'll start to learn foundational information 36 00:02:44,409 --> 00:02:48,269 about invest investing in the equity market that you'd be surprised that 37 00:02:48,269 --> 00:02:50,159 many seasoned investors don't even know. 38 00:02:50,759 --> 00:02:52,469 So thank you for having me. 39 00:02:52,469 --> 00:02:55,924 I, your energy's always fantastic and I can't wait to get started. 40 00:02:55,924 --> 00:02:56,794 Vinney: Thank you so much. 41 00:02:56,794 --> 00:03:01,414 I'm so blessed to have you really, and we'll do more of these and I'll 42 00:03:01,414 --> 00:03:05,864 bring to my community, your teachings because they will be informed. 43 00:03:05,864 --> 00:03:10,214 And you just shared with me some of the investors made $150,000. 44 00:03:10,424 --> 00:03:12,539 Somebody made $180,000 that. 45 00:03:12,614 --> 00:03:17,984 Mind blowing, that's like a whole years of salary or maybe even three times 46 00:03:17,984 --> 00:03:20,424 of salary of some people, watching us. 47 00:03:20,574 --> 00:03:22,734 So it's fantastic to have you. 48 00:03:23,574 --> 00:03:23,994 Amit: Wonderful. 49 00:03:23,994 --> 00:03:25,974 It's, my purpose is to share knowledge. 50 00:03:26,334 --> 00:03:27,774 I'm not giving any financial advice. 51 00:03:27,774 --> 00:03:27,894 No. 52 00:03:28,194 --> 00:03:32,914 But based on that knowledge, if people learn it I think it could do wonders 53 00:03:32,914 --> 00:03:36,674 for individuals at the very least, they'll make informed and educated 54 00:03:36,674 --> 00:03:38,999 decisions, because most of the time people are just gambling with their money. 55 00:03:39,499 --> 00:03:40,159 Vinney: Yes. 56 00:03:40,249 --> 00:03:42,649 Amit: So today what I've done, I'm gonna share my screen with you today. 57 00:03:42,649 --> 00:03:46,639 What I've done is I have created a a presentation for you. 58 00:03:47,269 --> 00:03:47,449 Yeah. 59 00:03:47,449 --> 00:03:50,299 And the presentation is on what's happening in the market. 60 00:03:50,299 --> 00:03:51,889 I call it basically market analysis. 61 00:03:51,889 --> 00:03:53,359 So my question is, can you see my screen? 62 00:03:53,869 --> 00:03:54,559 Vinney: Yes, 63 00:03:54,649 --> 00:03:55,009 Amit: totally. 64 00:03:55,014 --> 00:03:55,174 Okay. 65 00:03:55,774 --> 00:03:56,224 Wonderful, Steve. 66 00:03:56,734 --> 00:03:56,884 Yeah. 67 00:03:56,884 --> 00:03:57,334 So perfect. 68 00:03:57,334 --> 00:03:58,054 So let's get going. 69 00:03:58,234 --> 00:04:00,344 So essentially this is just a legal disclaimer. 70 00:04:00,344 --> 00:04:03,734 So before I continue, like I'm not a financial advisor, I'm not giving 71 00:04:03,734 --> 00:04:06,724 any kind of financial recommendation or any kind of advice in this. 72 00:04:06,724 --> 00:04:06,784 Yeah. 73 00:04:06,814 --> 00:04:09,514 So please consult your own financial, 74 00:04:09,564 --> 00:04:11,694 Attorneys, accountants, et cetera for that information. 75 00:04:11,694 --> 00:04:14,304 Or make sure you know what you're investing is wise, 76 00:04:14,334 --> 00:04:15,564 because investments carry risks. 77 00:04:15,564 --> 00:04:15,654 Yes. 78 00:04:15,834 --> 00:04:18,354 Everything we're doing here is for educational purposes only. 79 00:04:18,969 --> 00:04:19,569 Vinney: Yes. 80 00:04:19,659 --> 00:04:19,839 Okay. 81 00:04:20,259 --> 00:04:23,079 Amit: So the very first thing I wanna talk to you guys about is what's 82 00:04:23,169 --> 00:04:24,919 actually happening in the market. 83 00:04:25,129 --> 00:04:30,039 So here's a chart that shows that what has the performance been of the 84 00:04:30,039 --> 00:04:34,929 s and p 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Nasdaq, and the Russell 2000. 85 00:04:35,199 --> 00:04:39,939 So the line chart that you notice here, this is the s and p 500, so s and p 86 00:04:39,939 --> 00:04:41,979 500 since the beginning of this year. 87 00:04:42,144 --> 00:04:48,654 As of yesterday has dipped by minus 4.28%, so s and p 500 has gone down. 88 00:04:48,654 --> 00:04:49,764 And what is s and p 500? 89 00:04:49,764 --> 00:04:53,614 It's a collection of 500 top highest market cap companies that are 90 00:04:53,614 --> 00:04:55,634 tracked in the the, in this index. 91 00:04:55,779 --> 00:04:57,809 I. The second is Dow Jones Industrial. 92 00:04:57,809 --> 00:05:02,099 Dow Jones Industrial has also shown a negative return since the beginning 93 00:05:02,099 --> 00:05:04,049 of this year, which is minus 1.16%. 94 00:05:04,379 --> 00:05:08,069 Nasdaq, which is pro predominantly technology related 95 00:05:08,069 --> 00:05:11,559 companies is down by 6.32%. 96 00:05:11,649 --> 00:05:17,379 And finally, Russell 2000, which is small to companies, are minus 7.73%. 97 00:05:17,469 --> 00:05:18,579 So everything's down. 98 00:05:18,939 --> 00:05:21,049 And and the question is why? 99 00:05:21,379 --> 00:05:22,639 So let's analyze some of that. 100 00:05:22,889 --> 00:05:24,809 And what I think is happening in the markets. 101 00:05:25,519 --> 00:05:29,569 So one of the biggest reasons that the market has dipped recently is that 102 00:05:29,569 --> 00:05:31,849 the trade war is heating up again. 103 00:05:32,209 --> 00:05:32,389 Yeah. 104 00:05:32,419 --> 00:05:36,169 So as on March 4th, 2025, president Donald Trump raised 105 00:05:36,199 --> 00:05:38,269 tariffs, which is what he raised. 106 00:05:38,419 --> 00:05:42,249 He imposed 25% import tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, 107 00:05:42,309 --> 00:05:47,559 and he also doubled the tariffs on Chinese goods from 10% to 20%. 108 00:05:48,404 --> 00:05:50,174 So caution is what happens next? 109 00:05:50,224 --> 00:05:54,274 What happened next immediately was that China hit back on March 10th. 110 00:05:54,484 --> 00:05:59,704 They slapped on us 10 to 15% tariffs on all the US imports that are going there. 111 00:06:00,064 --> 00:06:03,514 Canada also followed suit, and they said, we're gonna charge 25% tariffs 112 00:06:03,844 --> 00:06:07,234 on $155 billion worth of US goods. 113 00:06:07,234 --> 00:06:07,324 Yes. 114 00:06:07,594 --> 00:06:12,404 And Mexico, while they're also joining their plans for counter tariffs and 115 00:06:12,404 --> 00:06:14,504 they're expected to start in early April. 116 00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:18,849 Now let's talk about how this is affecting the US economy. 117 00:06:19,209 --> 00:06:22,599 So first there was a rush to import goods before the tariffs set. 118 00:06:22,959 --> 00:06:23,229 Okay. 119 00:06:23,379 --> 00:06:26,919 So just before the tariffs were hit, which was, 4th of March, the US 120 00:06:26,919 --> 00:06:30,049 importers who were supposed to bring in imports or bring in products from 121 00:06:30,049 --> 00:06:34,219 other countries like Canada, Mexico or China, they increased their imports. 122 00:06:34,924 --> 00:06:36,424 What that did was there was a sudden. 123 00:06:37,039 --> 00:06:41,929 Spike in demand, and that caused a short term jump in inflation. 124 00:06:42,009 --> 00:06:47,079 Because business were trying to beat the clock and then came a stock market drop. 125 00:06:47,319 --> 00:06:49,479 So s and p 500 immediately took a drop. 126 00:06:49,689 --> 00:06:52,029 And the reason is that investors got nervous. 127 00:06:52,089 --> 00:06:54,729 They got nervous because of rising costs. 128 00:06:54,999 --> 00:06:58,749 They got nervous because of shrinking a potential shrinkage in corporate profits 129 00:06:58,989 --> 00:07:04,629 and worries about us, a growth slowdown and all these things start to play a role. 130 00:07:05,259 --> 00:07:07,399 And this doesn't just stop there. 131 00:07:07,399 --> 00:07:11,359 Essentially, higher tariffs mean higher import costs, and that makes 132 00:07:11,419 --> 00:07:15,829 everyday goods more expensive for consumers in the United States. 133 00:07:15,979 --> 00:07:19,249 And when household budgets get squeezed, what do people do? 134 00:07:19,309 --> 00:07:25,189 They start cutting back, especially on non-essentials, and that hits retail 135 00:07:25,669 --> 00:07:28,189 sales and that drags down the GDP. 136 00:07:28,599 --> 00:07:31,239 So for companies, it's essentially a double whammy. 137 00:07:31,299 --> 00:07:35,379 A lot of US businesses depend on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. 138 00:07:35,799 --> 00:07:40,089 Now their costs are up and their profit margins are going to shrink, right? 139 00:07:40,139 --> 00:07:46,769 And that can mean hiring, freezes, wage cuts, and even price hikes to stay afloat. 140 00:07:47,574 --> 00:07:51,144 So these businesses are gonna raise their prices just so they can keep surviving. 141 00:07:51,684 --> 00:07:56,274 Now, when you put it all together, which is rising costs, falling demands, and 142 00:07:56,274 --> 00:07:59,784 investor uncertainty, what do you get? 143 00:08:00,084 --> 00:08:02,124 You get fear of recession. 144 00:08:02,424 --> 00:08:04,044 Now, it's not a guarantee, right? 145 00:08:04,044 --> 00:08:06,114 There's not a guarantee that they're gonna be a recession, but 146 00:08:06,114 --> 00:08:12,144 there is a growing concern for a recession in late 2025 or in 2026. 147 00:08:12,144 --> 00:08:16,134 So let's talk a little about what's really going on in the economy, 148 00:08:16,224 --> 00:08:20,544 because there is a lot of talk about inflation and recession, right? 149 00:08:20,544 --> 00:08:20,634 Yes. 150 00:08:20,664 --> 00:08:22,554 And it's easy to get confused. 151 00:08:22,554 --> 00:08:24,864 So I wanna just take some smog outta that. 152 00:08:25,044 --> 00:08:25,404 Vinney: Yes. 153 00:08:25,644 --> 00:08:25,854 Yes. 154 00:08:25,854 --> 00:08:26,484 So first of all, 155 00:08:26,934 --> 00:08:27,744 Amit: what is inflation? 156 00:08:28,224 --> 00:08:30,864 Inflation just means that prices are going up. 157 00:08:31,284 --> 00:08:37,314 Okay, so grocery cost, gas, cost, rent, everything starts to cost more. 158 00:08:37,584 --> 00:08:40,624 If you were to buy a burger from McDonald's this year, next year, 159 00:08:40,624 --> 00:08:41,974 it's going to get more expensive. 160 00:08:42,034 --> 00:08:43,174 That's inflation. 161 00:08:43,229 --> 00:08:43,499 Okay? 162 00:08:43,739 --> 00:08:47,579 Now, when people and investors start to worry about inflation. 163 00:08:48,104 --> 00:08:50,174 They expect prices are going to keep rising. 164 00:08:50,174 --> 00:08:50,234 Yeah. 165 00:08:50,774 --> 00:08:54,644 And that creates a chain reaction, especially in the bond market. 166 00:08:54,704 --> 00:08:56,924 And I'm gonna talk about the bond market because it's very telling 167 00:08:56,924 --> 00:08:58,004 of what's actually happening. 168 00:08:58,054 --> 00:09:01,934 And few people know how to analyze and understand and understand the correlation 169 00:09:01,934 --> 00:09:05,984 between bond prices, bond deals, and the stock market and how it impacts 170 00:09:05,984 --> 00:09:07,814 recession or economy for that matter. 171 00:09:08,504 --> 00:09:11,889 So here's how this works when inflation is a concern. 172 00:09:12,749 --> 00:09:17,189 Investors want their money to keep up with rising prices. 173 00:09:17,819 --> 00:09:19,049 Yes, obviously. 174 00:09:19,259 --> 00:09:22,199 So what they do is they say, okay, I want a better return for my money. 175 00:09:23,009 --> 00:09:26,519 But what happens is, because a lot of them hold onto older bonds. 176 00:09:26,579 --> 00:09:29,279 So Bond is a safe place where people put money, right? 177 00:09:29,279 --> 00:09:32,129 And Bond is, let's just say US Treasuries, for example. 178 00:09:32,129 --> 00:09:35,609 They're backed by the United States government, which is a very safe, 179 00:09:35,909 --> 00:09:37,559 backer off their investments. 180 00:09:37,769 --> 00:09:38,999 So people put their money in the bonds. 181 00:09:39,059 --> 00:09:42,779 So what happens is when people expect higher returns, but they're 182 00:09:42,779 --> 00:09:46,289 holding bonds that don't provide higher returns from the past, what 183 00:09:46,289 --> 00:09:48,909 they do is they sell those bonds. 184 00:09:49,449 --> 00:09:54,639 They sell those bonds, and they buy newer bonds that have a better yield. 185 00:09:55,239 --> 00:09:59,709 But when lots of people start selling bonds at the same time, and what 186 00:09:59,709 --> 00:10:02,379 that does is it pushes the price down because the supply goes up. 187 00:10:02,379 --> 00:10:02,439 Yeah. 188 00:10:02,454 --> 00:10:02,544 Yes. 189 00:10:02,814 --> 00:10:04,194 And here's something important to know. 190 00:10:04,374 --> 00:10:07,824 When bond prices go down, their yield goes up. 191 00:10:07,824 --> 00:10:08,154 Why? 192 00:10:08,154 --> 00:10:13,674 Because there is an inverse relationship between bond prices and bond yield. 193 00:10:13,674 --> 00:10:18,624 So if I say bond price dollar is inversely proportional to bond yield. 194 00:10:18,624 --> 00:10:19,464 And what is yield? 195 00:10:19,464 --> 00:10:20,934 Yield is basically rate of return. 196 00:10:21,594 --> 00:10:21,924 Yep. 197 00:10:22,344 --> 00:10:22,764 Sure. 198 00:10:22,914 --> 00:10:24,294 So there is an inverse relationship. 199 00:10:24,354 --> 00:10:27,514 So when bond prices go go up, the yield goes down. 200 00:10:27,634 --> 00:10:30,934 And that's just how the bond market works because they move 201 00:10:30,934 --> 00:10:31,774 in the opposite direction. 202 00:10:31,894 --> 00:10:35,794 Now when the inflation really starts to heat up, the federal reserve 203 00:10:35,794 --> 00:10:39,574 usually steps in to control inflation. 204 00:10:39,964 --> 00:10:40,714 And what do they do? 205 00:10:40,714 --> 00:10:43,054 They increase interest rates to cool things off. 206 00:10:43,054 --> 00:10:45,964 And you notice that happened very recently, just when the feds 207 00:10:45,964 --> 00:10:47,044 increased the interest rates. 208 00:10:47,674 --> 00:10:50,374 What that does is it makes borrowing more expensive. 209 00:10:50,374 --> 00:10:53,659 I. Which slows down spending and helps inflation come under control. 210 00:10:53,659 --> 00:10:55,369 And why does it why does borrow come? 211 00:10:55,379 --> 00:10:56,009 Under control? 212 00:10:56,139 --> 00:10:59,649 Because when money becomes expensive, businesses stop taking loans. 213 00:10:59,649 --> 00:11:02,619 Also, people stop taking loans because it gets very expensive. 214 00:11:02,739 --> 00:11:07,839 And hence the flow or the availability of cash in the world or the market reduces. 215 00:11:07,839 --> 00:11:07,899 Yeah. 216 00:11:08,649 --> 00:11:11,379 And then people who would've otherwise taken money, they don't take 217 00:11:11,379 --> 00:11:13,539 money, so they stop buying things. 218 00:11:13,539 --> 00:11:15,009 So the demand of things goes down. 219 00:11:15,009 --> 00:11:15,849 And then, you know what? 220 00:11:15,969 --> 00:11:17,139 Markets start to cool down. 221 00:11:17,139 --> 00:11:21,609 But rising interests also makes new bonds more attractive. 222 00:11:21,609 --> 00:11:21,759 Okay? 223 00:11:21,759 --> 00:11:26,499 So when feds rate raise interest rates, that also means the bond yields go up. 224 00:11:26,679 --> 00:11:31,149 And because bonds are gonna start giving higher interest rates, then 225 00:11:31,149 --> 00:11:35,019 what investors do is they dump old bonds and they buy new bonds. 226 00:11:35,019 --> 00:11:36,759 All right, so that's exactly what I was saying earlier. 227 00:11:37,209 --> 00:11:39,509 So the question is that what is happening right now? 228 00:11:39,539 --> 00:11:40,079 In other words. 229 00:11:40,079 --> 00:11:42,509 Is there a risk of inflation? 230 00:11:43,019 --> 00:11:46,949 Which produces all these side effects and symptoms that I showed talked about. 231 00:11:47,219 --> 00:11:48,239 The answer is no. 232 00:11:48,269 --> 00:11:49,739 That's actually not what is happening. 233 00:11:50,099 --> 00:11:53,369 See, what happened was in early March, if you remember, the stock 234 00:11:53,369 --> 00:11:55,069 market took a big dump, right? 235 00:11:55,729 --> 00:11:59,629 But in early March, the bond deals also dropped. 236 00:11:59,629 --> 00:12:00,404 So here are the bond deals. 237 00:12:01,124 --> 00:12:01,364 Vinney: Yes. 238 00:12:01,364 --> 00:12:01,424 Amit: Wow. 239 00:12:01,424 --> 00:12:03,734 The green line represents a 10 year US bond deal. 240 00:12:04,124 --> 00:12:09,704 So the bond deal started to drop in early March, and it tells us that investors 241 00:12:09,854 --> 00:12:13,334 are buying more bonds, not selling them. 242 00:12:13,334 --> 00:12:15,434 Remember previously I was saying they would sell old bonds with 243 00:12:15,434 --> 00:12:16,874 lower yields and buy newer bonds. 244 00:12:16,934 --> 00:12:18,434 This time they're not selling old bonds. 245 00:12:18,434 --> 00:12:20,384 They're actually just starting to buy new and new bonds. 246 00:12:21,044 --> 00:12:21,914 And how do we know that? 247 00:12:22,064 --> 00:12:25,334 Because the bond prices went up. 248 00:12:25,334 --> 00:12:26,744 Because the demand increased. 249 00:12:26,744 --> 00:12:30,974 So bond prices went up, and when the bond prices go up, the yield goes down. 250 00:12:31,934 --> 00:12:33,704 And where's the money for the bond pro? 251 00:12:33,764 --> 00:12:36,464 Where's the money coming in to buy these bonds? 252 00:12:36,524 --> 00:12:39,674 People are selling people sold stocks and put money in the bonds. 253 00:12:40,214 --> 00:12:40,304 Yeah. 254 00:12:40,304 --> 00:12:43,364 People sold stocks and they put money in the bonds, and why would they sell stocks? 255 00:12:43,364 --> 00:12:47,084 Because they thought if the market is going to cool down or slow down, 256 00:12:47,384 --> 00:12:50,444 then that means these businesses are not going to do that well, and the 257 00:12:50,444 --> 00:12:51,644 business is not gonna do that well. 258 00:12:51,644 --> 00:12:53,474 That means they're losing confidence in businesses. 259 00:12:53,474 --> 00:12:56,054 They're gonna take money outta businesses and put it in bonds, 260 00:12:56,234 --> 00:12:57,344 which is a safer investment. 261 00:12:57,344 --> 00:13:00,944 That means that they're not scared of infl inflation. 262 00:13:00,944 --> 00:13:04,574 What they're actually scared about is a possible economic slowdown 263 00:13:04,814 --> 00:13:07,814 and that slowdown can reach into and and lead to a recession. 264 00:13:08,364 --> 00:13:09,324 But what happened? 265 00:13:09,474 --> 00:13:13,134 So while this happened in, in early May, then s sorry. 266 00:13:13,164 --> 00:13:19,384 In early March, soon after that, the the bond deals started to stabilize and also 267 00:13:19,384 --> 00:13:21,154 the bond prices started to stabilize. 268 00:13:21,889 --> 00:13:22,159 Vinney: Yes. 269 00:13:22,159 --> 00:13:22,369 What does 270 00:13:22,369 --> 00:13:22,849 Amit: that mean? 271 00:13:23,599 --> 00:13:29,209 That means the market is no longer in a panic mode, so people are on the 272 00:13:29,209 --> 00:13:31,729 edge and that we definitely know what they're doing is they're watching 273 00:13:31,729 --> 00:13:35,959 to see whether inflation is going to increase or whether recessionary risks 274 00:13:35,959 --> 00:13:37,879 or fears are gonna become more realistic. 275 00:13:37,879 --> 00:13:39,319 In other words, which is gonna be a bigger threat. 276 00:13:40,069 --> 00:13:40,969 So here's the bottom line. 277 00:13:41,149 --> 00:13:44,609 If the inflation is the fear, so I have a chart here. 278 00:13:44,849 --> 00:13:49,169 If inflation is a fear, what happens is the bond deals increase. 279 00:13:49,509 --> 00:13:51,849 And the bond prices go down because they're inversely related 280 00:13:52,029 --> 00:13:53,439 and interest rates increase. 281 00:13:53,619 --> 00:13:57,909 But if a recession is the fear, then bond deals go down. 282 00:13:58,569 --> 00:14:01,659 Bond prices go up and interest rates also go up. 283 00:14:01,719 --> 00:14:04,089 So we're gonna have to wait and watch what actually happens because 284 00:14:04,089 --> 00:14:05,709 we are right now in that flux. 285 00:14:05,709 --> 00:14:07,089 There was fear earlier. 286 00:14:07,269 --> 00:14:11,444 Now there's markets starting to stop panicking that much I. Yeah, 287 00:14:11,859 --> 00:14:14,289 Vinney: but looks like, isn't it, the Fed is saying they're 288 00:14:14,289 --> 00:14:16,149 not gonna cut the interest rate. 289 00:14:16,299 --> 00:14:20,409 They held it stationary last week and they might do it in 290 00:14:20,889 --> 00:14:22,479 like later part of this year. 291 00:14:22,479 --> 00:14:23,079 I think I 292 00:14:23,084 --> 00:14:25,984 Amit: heard that's right, and I, that's a very good point because after a couple 293 00:14:25,984 --> 00:14:27,544 slides I'm gonna talk exactly about that. 294 00:14:27,784 --> 00:14:31,684 But before I speak about that, I wanna talk to you guys about GDP and what 295 00:14:31,684 --> 00:14:34,804 we are seeing happening in the GDP, which is a gross domestic product. 296 00:14:34,804 --> 00:14:34,894 Yes. 297 00:14:35,394 --> 00:14:38,664 There is a an agency in the US called Atlanta Fed. 298 00:14:39,024 --> 00:14:41,934 So the federal agencies in the us there are several of them. 299 00:14:41,964 --> 00:14:43,134 One of them is Atlanta Fed. 300 00:14:43,134 --> 00:14:49,314 And what Atlanta Fed does different from others, and it's very cool is that it 301 00:14:49,314 --> 00:14:54,294 monitors the real time performance of the GDP, whereas rest of the places. 302 00:14:55,269 --> 00:14:57,519 They will find out, I think a little while after that. 303 00:14:57,519 --> 00:15:00,249 How did the G two select maybe how was the last quarter? 304 00:15:00,519 --> 00:15:02,379 Atlanta Fed monitors it in real time. 305 00:15:02,379 --> 00:15:05,829 So I have figures as of yesterday and I'm gonna show you what they're showing. 306 00:15:06,519 --> 00:15:09,179 So here is and I got, again, here's the source. 307 00:15:09,179 --> 00:15:09,899 So Atlanta Fed. 308 00:15:09,899 --> 00:15:11,069 You guys can go and just check it out. 309 00:15:11,339 --> 00:15:13,349 So here's a chart that shows. 310 00:15:14,129 --> 00:15:18,689 The evolution of of the GDP in the quarter one of 2022. 311 00:15:18,959 --> 00:15:25,689 So you'll notice that the GDP consensus was that it was just north of 2% all 312 00:15:25,689 --> 00:15:28,169 the way until sometime in late February. 313 00:15:28,379 --> 00:15:32,489 And look after that, there was a huge dump, and then prices started 314 00:15:32,489 --> 00:15:34,559 to, or the GDP started to stabilize. 315 00:15:34,889 --> 00:15:36,809 So why did this dump happen? 316 00:15:36,809 --> 00:15:40,549 Which means and here's a chart that also signifies or displays the same thing. 317 00:15:40,789 --> 00:15:47,599 So on 26th of February, the GDP was expected to be at 2.3% annualized. 318 00:15:48,514 --> 00:15:51,184 Okay, so based on the figures that were coming in, there 319 00:15:51,184 --> 00:15:51,874 are a whole bunch of figures. 320 00:15:51,874 --> 00:15:55,264 They look at the consumer price index, their equipment manufacturing 321 00:15:55,544 --> 00:16:00,314 residential yields, import, export, et cetera, et look at all kinds of things 322 00:16:00,674 --> 00:16:04,094 to see or all kinds of variables just to assess what the, what's happening 323 00:16:04,094 --> 00:16:07,364 in the gdp, is it growing and if so, what rate at an annualized basis. 324 00:16:07,724 --> 00:16:12,254 So as of 26th of every three as of 26th of February, everything was hunky dory. 325 00:16:12,619 --> 00:16:17,449 On 28th of February, the GDP started to turn negative minus 1.5. 326 00:16:17,449 --> 00:16:20,929 So it went from 2.3 to minus 1.5, and that's a huge jump. 327 00:16:21,349 --> 00:16:24,709 And then a few days after that, it went to minus 2.8. 328 00:16:25,539 --> 00:16:25,989 Why? 329 00:16:26,619 --> 00:16:29,109 And suddenly, even if you look at right now, the GDP is currently 330 00:16:29,109 --> 00:16:33,039 showing up until 18th of March, which was just a couple days ago, right? 331 00:16:33,399 --> 00:16:33,489 Yes. 332 00:16:33,489 --> 00:16:37,809 So up until 18th of March, it was showing that the GDP is at minus 1.8. 333 00:16:37,809 --> 00:16:37,929 Yes. 334 00:16:37,929 --> 00:16:39,399 So question is what happened? 335 00:16:39,869 --> 00:16:43,709 I'm gonna bring your attention to a point which I also raised earlier on my slide. 336 00:16:44,159 --> 00:16:46,619 If you notice, export the line of exports. 337 00:16:47,429 --> 00:16:48,119 Notice everything. 338 00:16:48,189 --> 00:16:48,609 Positive. 339 00:16:48,609 --> 00:16:50,019 Suddenly minus 2.7. 340 00:16:50,139 --> 00:16:50,949 And when did that happen? 341 00:16:50,949 --> 00:16:54,309 Yes, just on the 3rd of March. 342 00:16:54,819 --> 00:16:54,909 Yes. 343 00:16:55,149 --> 00:16:55,869 So why? 344 00:16:56,349 --> 00:16:57,429 And this is net exports. 345 00:16:57,699 --> 00:17:02,019 Net exports and net exports is import minus export. 346 00:17:02,569 --> 00:17:06,619 So it shows that there, it there became a deficit. 347 00:17:06,799 --> 00:17:11,629 That means in us imported so much suddenly. 348 00:17:11,629 --> 00:17:11,689 Yeah. 349 00:17:12,379 --> 00:17:15,619 That it started to show a negative impact on the GDP, it started to show 350 00:17:15,619 --> 00:17:17,239 that GDPs actually going negatively. 351 00:17:17,739 --> 00:17:18,489 Why did that happen? 352 00:17:19,029 --> 00:17:22,899 The reason that happened, the reason that happened on the 3rd of March is 353 00:17:22,899 --> 00:17:27,399 because on the 4th of March, Donald Trump was going to impose tariffs. 354 00:17:27,669 --> 00:17:32,279 So what the importers in the US did was that anything they had to import, let's 355 00:17:32,279 --> 00:17:35,459 say, a little while in the future, they said, let's just import it right now. 356 00:17:35,609 --> 00:17:38,069 So I don't have to pay that much duty. 357 00:17:38,249 --> 00:17:41,459 Otherwise the things that I'm importing are going to cost more and 358 00:17:41,819 --> 00:17:43,319 my profit margin is gonna go down. 359 00:17:43,319 --> 00:17:47,399 So this suddenly imported a lot, and so the net exports. 360 00:17:48,149 --> 00:17:54,753 Became negative, and that started to show a sudden spike in the G'S degradation. 361 00:17:55,543 --> 00:18:00,403 Now, ever since then, the GDP has now slowly started to go back up. 362 00:18:00,523 --> 00:18:02,953 Now it's still in the negative territory, but slowly started to go back up. 363 00:18:03,073 --> 00:18:04,213 And why has that happened? 364 00:18:04,843 --> 00:18:09,823 Because the, I guess that sudden net negative export. 365 00:18:10,228 --> 00:18:12,958 The net export is not that negative anymore. 366 00:18:12,958 --> 00:18:14,728 So if you have a look, it's, it's started to go down. 367 00:18:14,728 --> 00:18:18,418 So minus 2.2, minus 2.1, 2.6, 0.7, et cetera, et cetera. 368 00:18:18,878 --> 00:18:19,028 Okay. 369 00:18:19,388 --> 00:18:22,208 So that was the sudden effect of what happened. 370 00:18:22,298 --> 00:18:28,748 Now, if the GDP remains negative for two straight quarters, that by book. 371 00:18:29,123 --> 00:18:30,323 It's called a recession. 372 00:18:30,383 --> 00:18:31,523 This recession. 373 00:18:31,523 --> 00:18:31,973 Yes. 374 00:18:31,973 --> 00:18:32,513 Yes. 375 00:18:32,693 --> 00:18:34,133 So we'll wait and see what happens. 376 00:18:34,283 --> 00:18:37,343 If that really happens, then you know, we'll wait and watch what that does. 377 00:18:37,343 --> 00:18:41,973 Now, the question that you asked about the the interest rates going down. 378 00:18:42,033 --> 00:18:43,173 Interest rates, yes. 379 00:18:43,173 --> 00:18:44,253 So we have to discuss that. 380 00:18:44,403 --> 00:18:48,183 So we should turn our attention to feds, because that is a big question. 381 00:18:48,513 --> 00:18:51,513 Will they start cutting interest rates this year? 382 00:18:51,843 --> 00:18:55,013 We know that an, an FOMC meeting was just held last week, and they 383 00:18:55,013 --> 00:18:56,513 decided not to cut interest rates. 384 00:18:57,053 --> 00:18:58,763 Why did they decide not to cut interest rates? 385 00:18:58,883 --> 00:19:00,863 Because they thought everything was still under control. 386 00:19:00,923 --> 00:19:05,423 The inflation hasn't gone up drastically, which means things haven't become 387 00:19:05,633 --> 00:19:09,173 expensive because if things become expensive, they become expensive because 388 00:19:09,173 --> 00:19:11,273 of demand, and the demand is too high. 389 00:19:11,393 --> 00:19:14,093 They have to raise interest rates to bring the demand low. 390 00:19:14,093 --> 00:19:14,363 Why? 391 00:19:14,363 --> 00:19:17,593 Because the flow of money is gonna go, they want the flow of money to reduce. 392 00:19:17,613 --> 00:19:19,143 Yeah, so they didn't do that. 393 00:19:19,143 --> 00:19:21,083 They thought, everything is okay right now. 394 00:19:21,083 --> 00:19:22,223 We don't need to be that worried. 395 00:19:22,733 --> 00:19:25,633 But what is what is the forecast of the FOMC? 396 00:19:25,663 --> 00:19:27,943 So here's a, here's something that I get. 397 00:19:27,943 --> 00:19:31,663 This is these are target rate cuts and this is information as 398 00:19:31,663 --> 00:19:34,003 available freely in CME group.com. 399 00:19:34,063 --> 00:19:36,883 You can just go and download, and I like to look at these very regularly. 400 00:19:37,213 --> 00:19:42,433 So what this shows is, what is the possibility of interest 401 00:19:42,433 --> 00:19:44,203 rate cuts in different. 402 00:19:44,663 --> 00:19:45,923 Times this year. 403 00:19:46,103 --> 00:19:48,983 So the very first one I have here is June. 404 00:19:49,613 --> 00:19:52,793 So currently, as the interest rate is between 4.25 and 4.5%. 405 00:19:52,793 --> 00:19:55,343 Or no, actually, sorry, it's between 404.25%. 406 00:19:55,343 --> 00:19:56,003 This is the current one? 407 00:19:56,003 --> 00:19:56,093 Yeah. 408 00:19:56,393 --> 00:19:59,753 So it's expected that in June the interest rate will remain the same, 409 00:20:00,023 --> 00:20:03,743 but in September it's expected that the interest rates will be cut down 410 00:20:03,743 --> 00:20:07,823 by 25 basis points two, 3.75 and 4%. 411 00:20:08,003 --> 00:20:09,803 And what is the probability of that? 412 00:20:10,028 --> 00:20:12,878 42.8%. Again, these are probabilities. 413 00:20:12,878 --> 00:20:13,478 These can change. 414 00:20:13,658 --> 00:20:16,808 But as of the way things currently stand, this is expectation. 415 00:20:17,138 --> 00:20:21,668 And then in December, again, there is an expectation of a rate cut to 3.5 416 00:20:21,668 --> 00:20:23,828 to 3.75, again, by 25 basis points. 417 00:20:24,263 --> 00:20:24,563 Okay. 418 00:20:24,683 --> 00:20:29,003 So here are the four reasons why I think the feds might cut interest 419 00:20:29,003 --> 00:20:30,503 rates if the falling happen, right? 420 00:20:30,503 --> 00:20:32,393 So number one, GDP stays weak. 421 00:20:32,603 --> 00:20:35,663 So if the economy continues to slow down, and especially if the quarter 422 00:20:35,663 --> 00:20:39,263 two GDP goes negative, the US will technically be in a recession, as I just 423 00:20:39,263 --> 00:20:40,283 mentioned a little while ago, right? 424 00:20:40,643 --> 00:20:43,583 That's when the feds are gonna step in and they're gonna say, okay, let's cut the 425 00:20:43,583 --> 00:20:45,473 interest rates to jumpstart the economy. 426 00:20:45,863 --> 00:20:48,563 And let companies start taking money and start doing investments. 427 00:20:49,133 --> 00:20:54,023 Second if the unemployment jumps, which means if people, more people get laid off. 428 00:20:54,323 --> 00:20:58,223 So right now, most job losses are in tech and government sectors, and I have 429 00:20:58,223 --> 00:20:59,603 a slide that will discuss that as well. 430 00:20:59,813 --> 00:21:04,073 But if the layoff spread across other sectors and the unemployment rises 431 00:21:04,073 --> 00:21:07,623 sharply, then the feds are going to come in the act and, save the labor market. 432 00:21:08,173 --> 00:21:09,853 Next, if the inflation cools down. 433 00:21:10,363 --> 00:21:14,323 So if the inflation continues to ease on its own because of weak demand. 434 00:21:14,323 --> 00:21:16,453 Remember, inflation goes up because their demand is too high. 435 00:21:16,453 --> 00:21:20,533 Higher inflation goes down because there's not enough demand. 436 00:21:20,653 --> 00:21:24,133 Then the feds will have to come in and give some breathing room to the 437 00:21:24,133 --> 00:21:28,183 economy by cutting interest rates, but the inflation stays sticky. 438 00:21:28,333 --> 00:21:29,083 Then they'll hold off. 439 00:21:29,133 --> 00:21:30,123 Now, why did they hold off? 440 00:21:30,123 --> 00:21:34,863 Because inflation fears are there, so they're thinking it's sticky right now. 441 00:21:34,863 --> 00:21:37,023 They're like, okay, we're not gonna raise it, but we're gonna 442 00:21:37,023 --> 00:21:39,093 keep it unchanged at this time. 443 00:21:39,093 --> 00:21:40,443 That's why they didn't change it this time. 444 00:21:40,443 --> 00:21:42,413 Next financial market instability. 445 00:21:42,413 --> 00:21:47,633 So if there's a certain market crash or a surge in panic we've seen before. 446 00:21:47,933 --> 00:21:51,443 So similar to think back, what happened in 2019 with the trade war. 447 00:21:51,803 --> 00:21:54,703 So the feds at that time can step in and. 448 00:21:54,703 --> 00:21:57,133 Cut the sta, cut the interest rates and stabilize economy. 449 00:21:57,133 --> 00:22:00,253 But if, just for your knowledge, for those of you who may have forgotten, 450 00:22:00,403 --> 00:22:05,713 2019 was Mr. Whit when President Donald Trump also had a trade war with the, with 451 00:22:05,713 --> 00:22:07,783 China, and there was a dip in the market. 452 00:22:08,083 --> 00:22:10,783 So they had come in to help out that time too. 453 00:22:10,783 --> 00:22:16,843 So as I mentioned, the first rate cut is expected in June 2nd in September. 454 00:22:17,168 --> 00:22:19,688 And potentially a third one in December, and we'll see what happens. 455 00:22:19,958 --> 00:22:23,738 But if the data keeps pointing towards weakness and inflation keeps falling, 456 00:22:23,978 --> 00:22:26,948 rate cuts would probably come sooner. 457 00:22:26,948 --> 00:22:27,188 Sooner. 458 00:22:27,603 --> 00:22:28,023 Sooner. 459 00:22:28,298 --> 00:22:28,658 Vinney: Yeah. 460 00:22:28,838 --> 00:22:33,398 Amit: But if inflation again proves sticky, or if the growth rebounds, 461 00:22:33,578 --> 00:22:35,408 then these cuts may be delayed. 462 00:22:35,408 --> 00:22:37,598 So we all have to wait and watch what really happens. 463 00:22:37,598 --> 00:22:38,828 Again, nobody has a crystal ball. 464 00:22:38,828 --> 00:22:43,028 This is all, these are all decision based in a very dynamic market movement. 465 00:22:43,078 --> 00:22:46,798 Okay, so now let's talk what actually happens when the feds 466 00:22:46,828 --> 00:22:50,008 start cutting interest rates and there's some good news for a person 467 00:22:50,008 --> 00:22:51,178 like you who's in real estate. 468 00:22:51,208 --> 00:22:52,228 Yes, I'll talk about that. 469 00:22:52,228 --> 00:22:52,438 I love 470 00:22:52,438 --> 00:22:53,038 Vinney: it for sure. 471 00:22:53,038 --> 00:22:54,028 I can't wait. 472 00:22:54,088 --> 00:22:57,748 Can't wait for the market to turn because it's been pretty tough 473 00:22:57,808 --> 00:22:59,368 Amit: last three years, as that's right. 474 00:22:59,368 --> 00:23:01,798 That's, I knew you'd have you'd love what I'm about to say soon. 475 00:23:02,218 --> 00:23:05,338 So here's what, when interest rates get cut this is what 476 00:23:05,338 --> 00:23:06,028 actually starts happening. 477 00:23:06,028 --> 00:23:06,718 So number one. 478 00:23:07,168 --> 00:23:08,548 Stock market tends to rise. 479 00:23:08,848 --> 00:23:09,418 So why? 480 00:23:09,448 --> 00:23:13,888 Yeah, because lower interest rate makes borrowing cheaper. 481 00:23:14,548 --> 00:23:17,338 So now of course not gonna happen in the big giant companies. 482 00:23:17,338 --> 00:23:19,348 They're very resilient essentially. 483 00:23:19,348 --> 00:23:21,418 But of course their stocks are also gonna go up. 484 00:23:21,538 --> 00:23:23,698 But real effect happens in smaller companies. 485 00:23:23,698 --> 00:23:27,568 So the companies that are in Russell 2000, for example, so small to mid-size 486 00:23:27,568 --> 00:23:30,508 companies that depend heavily on debt. 487 00:23:30,508 --> 00:23:34,798 Two run their programs to do our research and development to hire people. 488 00:23:34,958 --> 00:23:38,708 They suddenly get access to money and they start taking that money and restart the 489 00:23:38,708 --> 00:23:40,178 programs that they had paused for a while. 490 00:23:40,448 --> 00:23:41,738 Suddenly there is an uptick there. 491 00:23:41,738 --> 00:23:45,938 So when they start spending, then the expectation is that their profits are 492 00:23:45,938 --> 00:23:47,828 gonna increase and the profit increases. 493 00:23:48,038 --> 00:23:50,378 That increases the fair market value of that stock. 494 00:23:50,378 --> 00:23:52,448 And when that happens, the stock price jumps. 495 00:23:52,568 --> 00:23:55,808 So then that causes a ripple effect in throughout the stock market. 496 00:23:55,808 --> 00:23:57,488 So that's a number one thing that's gonna happen. 497 00:23:57,788 --> 00:24:00,458 Number two, borrow is gonna go up. 498 00:24:00,668 --> 00:24:01,933 So as interest rates fall. 499 00:24:02,713 --> 00:24:03,793 Loans become cheaper. 500 00:24:03,853 --> 00:24:06,943 So consumers start buying more homes, more cars. 501 00:24:07,063 --> 00:24:10,363 And yes, they're also gonna start swiping their credit cards a little more. 502 00:24:10,483 --> 00:24:12,973 And businesses also start boring, as I mentioned earlier, 503 00:24:12,973 --> 00:24:14,563 to invest higher and expand. 504 00:24:14,653 --> 00:24:17,593 And this is all designed to jumpstart the economy. 505 00:24:18,073 --> 00:24:21,703 But there's also a downside when the interest rate is brought down, 506 00:24:21,913 --> 00:24:23,533 the US dollar starts to weaken. 507 00:24:23,863 --> 00:24:24,463 And why? 508 00:24:24,613 --> 00:24:26,653 Because when the interest rate goes down. 509 00:24:26,963 --> 00:24:32,873 That means the yields on the US Treasury also go down, and when the yields go 510 00:24:32,873 --> 00:24:39,863 down, that means this US currency becomes less attractive to foreigners because 511 00:24:39,863 --> 00:24:43,043 they spent, they will invest less, they'll take money out of treasuries, or 512 00:24:43,043 --> 00:24:44,393 they'll invest less in the treasuries. 513 00:24:44,393 --> 00:24:47,513 So when that happens, the demand for US dollar also goes 514 00:24:47,513 --> 00:24:49,373 down and with a US dollar. 515 00:24:49,908 --> 00:24:51,768 Demand goes down, that weakens a US dollar. 516 00:24:52,098 --> 00:24:52,818 But guess what? 517 00:24:53,448 --> 00:24:57,588 That's actually not all bad because a weaker dollar makes us exports 518 00:24:57,648 --> 00:24:59,448 cheaper for international buyers. 519 00:24:59,508 --> 00:24:59,628 Yes. 520 00:24:59,628 --> 00:25:00,918 So that boosts their sales. 521 00:25:01,548 --> 00:25:05,448 And here's a correlation with the stock market, the multinational 522 00:25:05,448 --> 00:25:07,698 companies that sell in other countries. 523 00:25:08,508 --> 00:25:12,328 What happens to them is when they convert their earnings from the foreign currency 524 00:25:12,328 --> 00:25:14,668 into US dollar, they get higher U dollars. 525 00:25:14,698 --> 00:25:15,328 US dollars. 526 00:25:15,358 --> 00:25:15,628 Yeah. 527 00:25:15,898 --> 00:25:19,258 When they get higher US dollars, that means their revenue goes up. 528 00:25:19,558 --> 00:25:19,828 Yeah. 529 00:25:19,833 --> 00:25:22,978 And when their revenue goes up, again, the fair market value of their stock 530 00:25:22,978 --> 00:25:24,688 goes up and their stock prices go up. 531 00:25:25,078 --> 00:25:28,898 So there is a corelation, which means, it's all it's all things 532 00:25:28,898 --> 00:25:29,888 will work out essentially. 533 00:25:30,488 --> 00:25:35,178 But in some, the other thing is that the, that when the interest rate goes down. 534 00:25:35,553 --> 00:25:40,353 Then the mortgage rates also go down, which is good for a person like you, and 535 00:25:40,353 --> 00:25:45,243 therefore those buyers who are looking to buy homes or who are looking to refinance 536 00:25:45,253 --> 00:25:47,713 they also are able to take out that money. 537 00:25:48,103 --> 00:25:50,953 Vinney: Multifamily hotel, senior living, whatever. 538 00:25:50,953 --> 00:25:51,313 That's right. 539 00:25:51,373 --> 00:25:52,608 They want to buy and consequently. 540 00:25:53,338 --> 00:25:53,788 Sorry, go ahead. 541 00:25:53,788 --> 00:25:53,968 Go. 542 00:25:53,968 --> 00:25:54,598 This is very interesting. 543 00:25:54,598 --> 00:25:57,868 No, now I was gonna say the lower the interest rate, like I have 544 00:25:57,868 --> 00:26:05,638 some loans I got at 3.73%, 10 year fixed and 3.89 and 4.2%. 545 00:26:05,888 --> 00:26:09,878 It's a investors' dream to have those kind of interest rates. 546 00:26:09,878 --> 00:26:12,968 So the lower the interest rates, the better it is. 547 00:26:12,968 --> 00:26:16,598 You could buy much part larger commercial assets. 548 00:26:17,268 --> 00:26:19,638 Amit: A hundred percent and like you're a fund manager. 549 00:26:19,788 --> 00:26:24,108 Similarly, REITs real estate investment trusts, which can be purchased just 550 00:26:24,108 --> 00:26:25,368 like a stock in the stock market. 551 00:26:25,808 --> 00:26:29,918 Because they invest in real estate and their cost of borrow and working goes 552 00:26:29,918 --> 00:26:31,418 down because of lower interest rates. 553 00:26:31,548 --> 00:26:31,908 Guess what? 554 00:26:31,908 --> 00:26:32,658 The REITs start to do 555 00:26:32,658 --> 00:26:32,898 Vinney: yeah. 556 00:26:32,928 --> 00:26:36,438 Amit: This also has an effect on growth and tech stocks. 557 00:26:36,438 --> 00:26:40,788 Yes, because these company companies rely on cheap capital to fund their 558 00:26:40,788 --> 00:26:43,818 growth cheap debt, and when the rates drop, their future earnings 559 00:26:43,818 --> 00:26:47,178 become more valuable in today's term, which boosts their stock price. 560 00:26:47,178 --> 00:26:50,163 I. But what about some sectors that are not gonna do well? 561 00:26:50,193 --> 00:26:51,453 'cause that's also gonna happen. 562 00:26:52,143 --> 00:26:53,133 And what are these sectors? 563 00:26:53,343 --> 00:26:56,373 The sectors that don't do well when the interest rate goes 564 00:26:56,373 --> 00:26:59,073 down are energy and commodities. 565 00:26:59,763 --> 00:27:00,303 Why? 566 00:27:00,543 --> 00:27:04,923 Because a weaker dollar can push the oil and commodity prices up. 567 00:27:05,253 --> 00:27:09,183 Because us has to import the money, import these commodities, which are not 568 00:27:09,183 --> 00:27:10,983 necessarily being produced in the us. 569 00:27:11,013 --> 00:27:15,123 So if they come from another country and the US dollar is weaker now 570 00:27:15,123 --> 00:27:18,603 they suddenly have to spend more money to buy the same product. 571 00:27:18,693 --> 00:27:23,233 And when they have to spend more money, then those utilities 572 00:27:23,233 --> 00:27:24,738 or services become expenses. 573 00:27:25,608 --> 00:27:25,898 Vinney: Yeah, 574 00:27:26,288 --> 00:27:26,778 Amit: exactly. 575 00:27:26,958 --> 00:27:33,073 And, but if rate cuts signal recession fear, then what happens is. 576 00:27:33,658 --> 00:27:38,428 The demand for oil also will drop, bringing the prices back up. 577 00:27:38,428 --> 00:27:40,348 So that's like a buffer that works in there. 578 00:27:40,348 --> 00:27:41,698 So it's an equilibrium. 579 00:27:42,118 --> 00:27:46,868 So if there is a rescission a fear of recession, then companies 580 00:27:46,868 --> 00:27:51,638 that invest in more transportation or require more energy, they 581 00:27:51,638 --> 00:27:52,898 will also start spending more. 582 00:27:53,138 --> 00:27:54,818 So again, that's a balancing effect. 583 00:27:55,028 --> 00:27:59,373 So ultimately what it is it's a mixed bag of what impact what kind 584 00:27:59,373 --> 00:28:02,583 of impacts happen in the market based on reduction in interest rates. 585 00:28:03,243 --> 00:28:06,993 That's why interest rate cuts don't just affect Wall Street. 586 00:28:07,383 --> 00:28:11,073 They ripple across everything, which is housing, tech, export 587 00:28:11,223 --> 00:28:15,253 dollar dollar prices, oil, you name it, and it gets affected. 588 00:28:15,393 --> 00:28:18,943 Speaker 2: Hi friends, this is Vinny Chopra from here in Danville, 589 00:28:19,003 --> 00:28:22,873 California, and you might be saying, Hey, Vinny, what are these over here? 590 00:28:23,103 --> 00:28:27,803 You know, I wrote this book a few years back, Apartment Syndication 591 00:28:27,803 --> 00:28:29,843 Made Easy, it became top seller. 592 00:28:30,043 --> 00:28:32,803 I came from India with 7 in my pocket. 593 00:28:33,003 --> 00:28:34,953 It says 500 million. 594 00:28:35,093 --> 00:28:37,923 It's going to be 1 billion very soon, very soon. 595 00:28:38,133 --> 00:28:40,823 I'm right at about 850, 900 million. 596 00:28:40,823 --> 00:28:43,393 It's And then I'm ready for the next billion. 597 00:28:43,473 --> 00:28:47,003 Actually, you will see that happening two billion in this book. 598 00:28:47,093 --> 00:28:50,413 Also, the other book I wrote, which has been a very big 599 00:28:50,603 --> 00:28:52,373 positivity has been my life. 600 00:28:52,713 --> 00:28:53,893 Always, always. 601 00:28:53,893 --> 00:28:56,553 I've been married 43 years with two children. 602 00:28:56,863 --> 00:28:59,003 And the beauty is to be positive. 603 00:28:59,043 --> 00:29:02,543 The mindset that can take you to all the places in the world. 604 00:29:02,803 --> 00:29:04,543 And that's the book that also. 605 00:29:04,893 --> 00:29:06,163 Became big, big seller. 606 00:29:06,343 --> 00:29:09,193 My third book, Senior Assisted Living is coming. 607 00:29:09,373 --> 00:29:13,853 So do yourself a favor, go ahead and click the link below to get free 608 00:29:13,853 --> 00:29:18,663 copies, audio copies of these books, even printed copies of these books. 609 00:29:18,883 --> 00:29:22,343 If you, I'm a print in means digital, if you can't afford it, 610 00:29:22,503 --> 00:29:26,593 but I would highly recommend for you to get these or go to amazon. 611 00:29:26,873 --> 00:29:27,283 com. 612 00:29:27,543 --> 00:29:28,663 Just go to Amazon. 613 00:29:28,903 --> 00:29:31,713 I got it in soft cover and hard cover. 614 00:29:32,408 --> 00:29:35,798 In Kindle, in audio, also the Spanish version of this. 615 00:29:35,858 --> 00:29:36,998 Oh, this book also. 616 00:29:37,268 --> 00:29:39,348 So let's crush it, guys. 617 00:29:39,658 --> 00:29:41,378 I know you can be successful. 618 00:29:41,378 --> 00:29:45,738 I know you can do the kind of things that you want to do in life and have 619 00:29:45,738 --> 00:29:51,108 the streams of income and know how to really, you know, educate yourself so 620 00:29:51,108 --> 00:29:56,618 that you could become a strong, strong force in this world in real estate. 621 00:29:56,788 --> 00:29:57,698 I know you can. 622 00:29:58,133 --> 00:29:59,343 So take that step. 623 00:29:59,483 --> 00:30:01,133 Don't just be on the sideline. 624 00:30:01,383 --> 00:30:02,763 Take charge of your life. 625 00:30:02,863 --> 00:30:04,403 Take charge of your education. 626 00:30:04,849 --> 00:30:07,189 Amit: Okay, here's another reason why. 627 00:30:07,369 --> 00:30:10,309 If you notice right now, the stock market may have been impacted, 628 00:30:10,519 --> 00:30:12,709 and this is called seasonality. 629 00:30:12,889 --> 00:30:16,949 So what I have in front of me is the performance of s and p 500. 630 00:30:17,069 --> 00:30:22,559 This is a seasonal pattern on s and p 500, and it's a 20 year timeframe. 631 00:30:22,949 --> 00:30:24,419 Ending in 2024. 632 00:30:24,419 --> 00:30:26,909 So that means it start 2004 to 2024. 633 00:30:27,119 --> 00:30:30,929 These are averages of what happened in the stock market, and if you notice 634 00:30:31,229 --> 00:30:36,629 so far the stock market kind of has performed very nicely based on this. 635 00:30:36,709 --> 00:30:40,939 So the market was down in January, slightly picked up 636 00:30:40,969 --> 00:30:42,019 and then went right down. 637 00:30:42,049 --> 00:30:43,939 So we are somewhere in the middle of March. 638 00:30:43,939 --> 00:30:44,749 We're somewhere here. 639 00:30:45,199 --> 00:30:47,779 You remember from the early to now. 640 00:30:48,169 --> 00:30:49,729 First it went down, the stock market went down. 641 00:30:49,729 --> 00:30:50,659 Then it picked up. 642 00:30:50,659 --> 00:30:53,799 So we are sitting somewhere around here, and that's behaved very 643 00:30:53,949 --> 00:30:55,749 similar to seasonal patterns. 644 00:30:56,169 --> 00:30:59,589 And again, these are averages. 645 00:30:59,769 --> 00:31:00,969 This is not a guarantee. 646 00:31:00,969 --> 00:31:02,139 That's why I'm saying these are 647 00:31:02,409 --> 00:31:02,769 Vinney: Seasonality 648 00:31:02,769 --> 00:31:03,189 Amit: patterns. 649 00:31:03,909 --> 00:31:08,769 If the seasonality were to play, expectation would be that the stock market 650 00:31:08,769 --> 00:31:11,709 would go up until, wow, sometime in May. 651 00:31:12,069 --> 00:31:13,389 Then it would go sideways. 652 00:31:13,884 --> 00:31:17,724 Then in towards the end of June, it'll go up again, then again goes 653 00:31:17,724 --> 00:31:19,764 sideways and then it goes up again. 654 00:31:19,924 --> 00:31:22,804 We'll have to wait and watch to see what happens right now is March. 655 00:31:23,054 --> 00:31:24,344 So far it's played out well. 656 00:31:24,434 --> 00:31:26,534 Whether it's gonna play out well, we have no clue. 657 00:31:26,534 --> 00:31:29,654 But I'm just saying this could be another reason why we think the market may not 658 00:31:29,654 --> 00:31:31,244 have may have attacked at this time. 659 00:31:31,244 --> 00:31:31,754 Wow. 660 00:31:31,789 --> 00:31:34,934 Vinney: So it's 20 year averages range. 661 00:31:35,594 --> 00:31:38,654 It's predicting it, it's predict probability. 662 00:31:39,044 --> 00:31:39,404 Amit: It's, 663 00:31:39,404 --> 00:31:39,554 Vinney: is that 664 00:31:39,554 --> 00:31:39,854 Amit: right? 665 00:31:39,974 --> 00:31:40,934 Historical performance. 666 00:31:40,934 --> 00:31:41,859 Ah, historical, yeah. 667 00:31:41,864 --> 00:31:41,954 Yeah. 668 00:31:41,954 --> 00:31:46,234 So if the history were to play out again, then the chances are the market would 669 00:31:46,234 --> 00:31:51,564 pick up, but looks very rosy that in the long run the stock market does go up. 670 00:31:51,564 --> 00:31:57,624 So s and p 500 historically s and p 500 has given an approximate 671 00:31:57,864 --> 00:32:01,344 10% compounded annual growth rate. 672 00:32:02,004 --> 00:32:02,304 Yes. 673 00:32:02,814 --> 00:32:02,874 Okay. 674 00:32:02,874 --> 00:32:03,954 This is an average. 675 00:32:04,044 --> 00:32:07,284 This means sometimes the s and p 500 and some years goes 676 00:32:07,284 --> 00:32:08,394 down in negative territory. 677 00:32:08,424 --> 00:32:10,164 Sometimes it goes up in the positive territory. 678 00:32:10,164 --> 00:32:11,694 Last year it was north of 20%. 679 00:32:11,694 --> 00:32:13,254 The year before it was north of 40%. 680 00:32:13,644 --> 00:32:15,564 This year we don't know what it's gonna be. 681 00:32:16,134 --> 00:32:16,314 Vinney: Yeah. 682 00:32:16,344 --> 00:32:19,984 Amit: But we know that if we were to play this game over and over again, 683 00:32:20,404 --> 00:32:25,744 and if the history, the market behaves something similar to what, how they 684 00:32:25,744 --> 00:32:29,554 have historically, then the chances are over the longer and we'll get 10%. 685 00:32:29,554 --> 00:32:34,064 Nasdaq NASDAQ gives 14%, roughly CAGR. 686 00:32:34,064 --> 00:32:34,274 Okay. 687 00:32:35,084 --> 00:32:37,014 So again this is good to know. 688 00:32:37,254 --> 00:32:39,454 I'm not saying people should make their investment decision based 689 00:32:39,454 --> 00:32:44,014 on that, but I am going in the, my discussion today with you is try to 690 00:32:44,014 --> 00:32:46,084 analyze why the market may have dipped. 691 00:32:46,174 --> 00:32:48,474 I've already given some reasons, which is tariffs, did the 692 00:32:48,474 --> 00:32:51,324 stock market know historically that tariffs are gonna happen? 693 00:32:51,444 --> 00:32:56,214 No, but that I'm saying that could be one reason, seasonality 694 00:32:56,274 --> 00:32:57,354 could be another reason. 695 00:32:57,414 --> 00:32:58,954 And what else could be another reason? 696 00:32:59,034 --> 00:32:59,544 Here it is. 697 00:32:59,784 --> 00:33:02,274 The other reason could be the job market, right? 698 00:33:02,304 --> 00:33:05,544 Because there has been another there have been some pullbacks recently. 699 00:33:05,649 --> 00:33:09,674 So what happened is that earlier this year we saw a spike in unemployment 700 00:33:09,674 --> 00:33:11,834 claims, and they raised from 22,000. 701 00:33:12,644 --> 00:33:17,264 Two, 242,000, and this is the highest in three months, right? 702 00:33:17,264 --> 00:33:19,484 22,000 to 242,000. 703 00:33:20,354 --> 00:33:23,534 And that triggered fears that the businesses were starting to 704 00:33:23,534 --> 00:33:28,304 cut back, and that also added to the growing recession concerns. 705 00:33:29,204 --> 00:33:29,924 But here's the good news. 706 00:33:30,884 --> 00:33:33,704 Since then, the unemployment claims have actually stabilized. 707 00:33:33,884 --> 00:33:36,794 We're not seeing a surge in job losses across the entire 708 00:33:36,794 --> 00:33:38,834 country, at least not yet. 709 00:33:39,374 --> 00:33:41,564 So now let's look at where the layoffs were actually happening. 710 00:33:41,864 --> 00:33:45,554 So the tech sector was the one that was hit the hardest since January over. 711 00:33:45,624 --> 00:33:50,124 30,000 workers were laid off from over a hundred tech companies, and this includes 712 00:33:50,124 --> 00:33:53,184 big names like Meta, Google, Salesforce. 713 00:33:53,214 --> 00:33:55,934 And one of the reasons aren't necessarily signs of economic 714 00:33:55,984 --> 00:34:01,504 collapse, they were being framed as a part of restructuring cost cutting 715 00:34:01,564 --> 00:34:03,394 AI automation efforts, et cetera. 716 00:34:03,944 --> 00:34:04,164 Yes. 717 00:34:04,904 --> 00:34:09,284 They impact the sentiment, but they don't tell the whole story. 718 00:34:09,614 --> 00:34:10,694 Even outside of the tech. 719 00:34:10,844 --> 00:34:14,004 Even outside of the tech, we've seen some cut, cut some some cuts. 720 00:34:14,364 --> 00:34:16,374 So this would be like hp for example. 721 00:34:16,374 --> 00:34:18,654 They recently had a layoff of 2000 workers. 722 00:34:19,374 --> 00:34:22,834 They were blaming them on tariff related costs and supply chain shifts. 723 00:34:23,164 --> 00:34:26,434 But again, these aren't broad-based layoffs. 724 00:34:26,809 --> 00:34:28,939 That can, that are impacting the economy at this time. 725 00:34:29,119 --> 00:34:30,559 So what does all this mean? 726 00:34:30,769 --> 00:34:35,479 This basically means that so far the labor market is still resilient. 727 00:34:36,109 --> 00:34:39,619 But it's critical data point to watch. 728 00:34:39,619 --> 00:34:40,354 I. Okay. 729 00:34:40,444 --> 00:34:44,914 If the job loss claims continue to raise to, to rise again, and if 730 00:34:44,914 --> 00:34:49,564 layoffs start spreading beyond the tech sector, into consumer services, 731 00:34:49,774 --> 00:34:54,214 retail manufacturing, then those could be signs of early weakness. 732 00:34:54,214 --> 00:34:56,974 And the feds are gonna come in to start doing something like rate cuts. 733 00:34:57,474 --> 00:34:59,424 But for now, the message is the job. 734 00:34:59,484 --> 00:35:04,014 The market isn't in a panic mode, but it's watching the job data very closely. 735 00:35:04,014 --> 00:35:04,824 And who's it? 736 00:35:04,914 --> 00:35:06,774 The market along with the feds are watching this. 737 00:35:06,774 --> 00:35:11,229 So Viji, this is the performance of the s and p 500 in one year. 738 00:35:11,259 --> 00:35:11,679 Vinney: Yes. 739 00:35:11,859 --> 00:35:12,399 Amit: Sorry, not one year. 740 00:35:12,609 --> 00:35:15,909 This is the performance of s and p 500 in the last one month, and I 741 00:35:15,909 --> 00:35:17,589 took the screenshot just yesterday. 742 00:35:18,139 --> 00:35:18,142 So it shows. 743 00:35:18,709 --> 00:35:22,039 Again, the top 500 companies by their market cap, who are 744 00:35:22,039 --> 00:35:23,719 in the s and p 500 index. 745 00:35:23,809 --> 00:35:24,739 How were they performing? 746 00:35:24,899 --> 00:35:25,409 Have a look. 747 00:35:25,619 --> 00:35:31,439 You notice this whole graph is sanctioned or categorized based on different sectors. 748 00:35:31,439 --> 00:35:33,149 So first is the technology sector. 749 00:35:33,359 --> 00:35:37,049 Then we have consumer cyclical, consumer defensive, financial 750 00:35:37,049 --> 00:35:39,414 services, communication services, so on and so forth. 751 00:35:40,004 --> 00:35:44,954 So you notice, and the size in these, the block size that we have, this is 752 00:35:44,954 --> 00:35:49,094 based on what share that a certain company has in the s and p 500. 753 00:35:49,394 --> 00:35:50,594 So notice some of the big guys. 754 00:35:50,654 --> 00:35:52,304 So Apple has a huge share. 755 00:35:52,304 --> 00:35:53,534 I'm gonna change the color. 756 00:35:53,534 --> 00:35:53,564 I. 757 00:35:54,564 --> 00:35:56,544 So you notice Apple has a huge share. 758 00:35:56,764 --> 00:35:58,114 Microsoft has a huge share. 759 00:35:58,114 --> 00:35:59,584 Nvidia has a huge share. 760 00:35:59,584 --> 00:36:01,384 Berkshire Hathaway, so on, so forth. 761 00:36:01,874 --> 00:36:06,143 So in one month, Microsoft, as of yesterday, I. Had a negative 762 00:36:06,143 --> 00:36:08,273 performance, so minus 7.34%. 763 00:36:08,393 --> 00:36:14,633 Apple had a minus 12.39% performance, Amazon minus 12.15, Google minus 11.44. 764 00:36:14,753 --> 00:36:17,063 There were also some positive ones like Berkshire Hathaway was 765 00:36:17,063 --> 00:36:20,473 up by 8.52% and so on so forth. 766 00:36:20,473 --> 00:36:22,093 Johnson and Johnson, ance. 767 00:36:23,093 --> 00:36:26,843 So that downturn that we saw from from January till now, 768 00:36:26,843 --> 00:36:27,893 which is a downturn, right? 769 00:36:28,073 --> 00:36:31,853 So even though it started to stabilize, but if I look at a month long performance, 770 00:36:31,973 --> 00:36:35,053 this is what the market is showing we're gonna have to wait and watch what happens. 771 00:36:35,053 --> 00:36:40,423 I. People who want to invest in the index, they can do technical analysis. 772 00:36:40,423 --> 00:36:43,838 If you watch, I just did a webinar a couple days ago on how to do technical 773 00:36:43,838 --> 00:36:46,598 analysis so you can do technical analysis to start to get a better understanding 774 00:36:46,598 --> 00:36:47,678 of how the market is behaving. 775 00:36:48,038 --> 00:36:54,842 So people can learn how to take advantage of indexes or learn to calculate the 776 00:36:54,842 --> 00:36:58,292 fair market value of stocks, and then figure out what's the fair market 777 00:36:58,292 --> 00:37:01,592 value and what would be the right entry points based on technical analysis. 778 00:37:01,712 --> 00:37:03,302 But once you know all that. 779 00:37:03,802 --> 00:37:04,132 That 780 00:37:04,132 --> 00:37:05,932 Vinney: was wonderful webinar, by the way. 781 00:37:05,932 --> 00:37:07,882 I wanna just put a plug on that one. 782 00:37:08,092 --> 00:37:10,702 It's on your channel on YouTube also. 783 00:37:10,702 --> 00:37:10,792 Yes. 784 00:37:11,122 --> 00:37:15,622 I would highly recommend everybody to watch that because it blew away. 785 00:37:15,672 --> 00:37:21,352 The MACDs and all these, things a lot of people think that they cannot understand, 786 00:37:21,562 --> 00:37:27,022 but how you, teach, and how you are able to give this free knowledge is amazing. 787 00:37:27,262 --> 00:37:28,702 And it was wonderful. 788 00:37:28,702 --> 00:37:30,562 People had so many great comments. 789 00:37:30,562 --> 00:37:31,402 And I did too. 790 00:37:31,642 --> 00:37:32,062 Thank you. 791 00:37:32,062 --> 00:37:32,482 No, it was 792 00:37:32,492 --> 00:37:35,812 Amit: very well attended a live webinar, which gave people an opportunity to yes. 793 00:37:35,812 --> 00:37:36,412 Ask questions. 794 00:37:36,832 --> 00:37:40,832 But where I'm trying to get at is, yes, that webinar is available recorded, 795 00:37:41,162 --> 00:37:42,262 but what I'm getting at is that. 796 00:37:43,092 --> 00:37:44,472 Market is down right now. 797 00:37:44,502 --> 00:37:49,597 The contrarian thinking shows that be greedy when the market is fearful, right? 798 00:37:49,777 --> 00:37:50,517 Yes, very fearful. 799 00:37:50,772 --> 00:37:54,432 But the smart investors are coming in and purchasing, but you don't 800 00:37:54,432 --> 00:37:58,302 just start investing in any stock that you can, somebody tells you, 801 00:37:58,572 --> 00:38:00,972 remember, cheap junk is just junk. 802 00:38:00,972 --> 00:38:01,152 Junk. 803 00:38:01,152 --> 00:38:01,332 Vinney: Yeah. 804 00:38:01,362 --> 00:38:05,142 Amit: So when the markets go down, poor performing companies actually do really 805 00:38:05,142 --> 00:38:07,987 poorly or they lose, they run out of business or they go out of business. 806 00:38:08,847 --> 00:38:13,677 So you gotta know the d, the how to use the concepts of diversification. 807 00:38:13,957 --> 00:38:17,197 Dollar cost averaging, being able to calculate the fair market value 808 00:38:17,197 --> 00:38:18,727 of a stock, do technical analysis. 809 00:38:18,727 --> 00:38:22,717 When you combine all that knowledge, then yeah, there are people who are able 810 00:38:22,717 --> 00:38:25,207 to take advantage wisely and in time. 811 00:38:25,897 --> 00:38:29,847 Recognizing that the market goes up by 10% there will be many wise 812 00:38:29,847 --> 00:38:31,077 investors who are gonna make money. 813 00:38:31,137 --> 00:38:34,877 There is a saying in the world of investments that the money in the 814 00:38:34,877 --> 00:38:40,967 markets flows from the pockets of eager and uninformed investors to the pockets 815 00:38:40,967 --> 00:38:44,867 of educated and patient investors. 816 00:38:44,867 --> 00:38:45,152 So true. 817 00:38:45,332 --> 00:38:46,247 So very true. 818 00:38:46,667 --> 00:38:49,797 You can't make, people like I wanna become rich tomorrow. 819 00:38:49,797 --> 00:38:52,647 I don't know if you can rich, get rich tomorrow, but I know for sure that 820 00:38:52,647 --> 00:38:54,357 you can lose all your money tomorrow. 821 00:38:54,807 --> 00:38:55,852 Vinney: Yeah, so true. 822 00:38:55,922 --> 00:38:56,412 Totally. 823 00:38:56,412 --> 00:38:56,907 So patience 824 00:38:56,907 --> 00:38:57,897 Amit: and knowledge is the game. 825 00:38:58,617 --> 00:38:58,977 Vinney: Yeah. 826 00:38:59,817 --> 00:39:02,277 Amit: And like I'm an engineer, if I can figure this out, other 827 00:39:02,277 --> 00:39:03,357 people can figure this out. 828 00:39:03,747 --> 00:39:04,677 Vinney: Okay 829 00:39:04,977 --> 00:39:06,897 Amit: sir. Now here's a slide. 830 00:39:07,347 --> 00:39:11,727 That I have, which shows that throughout history, the world has experienced crisis. 831 00:39:11,727 --> 00:39:13,377 We're going through a crisis right now. 832 00:39:13,437 --> 00:39:14,367 What is a crisis? 833 00:39:14,427 --> 00:39:15,327 There are a few crisis. 834 00:39:15,327 --> 00:39:16,167 Ukraine War. 835 00:39:16,437 --> 00:39:19,197 There are problems in Asia, right? 836 00:39:19,417 --> 00:39:23,177 Israel, middle East, Bangladesh there are bombings happening in Balo. 837 00:39:23,177 --> 00:39:24,967 Stan, there are problems all over the world. 838 00:39:25,027 --> 00:39:26,797 Ukraine is under war right now. 839 00:39:27,047 --> 00:39:29,747 Trump is putting tariffs, but the question is. 840 00:39:30,707 --> 00:39:33,107 Is it the first crisis the market in the world has seen? 841 00:39:33,137 --> 00:39:34,517 The answer is no. 842 00:39:34,637 --> 00:39:36,977 Here I have created this chart and I've put bubbles. 843 00:39:36,977 --> 00:39:38,177 This is all I make this myself. 844 00:39:38,507 --> 00:39:42,587 So I put bubbles on the s and p 500 where different kind of crisis had happened. 845 00:39:42,587 --> 00:39:43,937 I. And have a look. 846 00:39:44,087 --> 00:39:45,557 There's so many different crisis. 847 00:39:45,557 --> 00:39:51,137 There was Iraq War, Syrian War Ukraine and Crimea war, US trade war with China. 848 00:39:51,447 --> 00:39:54,327 Then there was a oil collapse, Brexit. 849 00:39:54,807 --> 00:39:56,097 It goes on and on. 850 00:39:56,457 --> 00:39:59,847 But look at the performance of the s and p 500, which is this candlestick chart. 851 00:40:00,207 --> 00:40:04,267 Notice that, it's had a very nice, almost exponential trajectory. 852 00:40:04,817 --> 00:40:05,597 Not a linear curve. 853 00:40:05,597 --> 00:40:06,707 It's an exponential curve. 854 00:40:07,202 --> 00:40:07,592 Vinney: Yeah, it is. 855 00:40:07,592 --> 00:40:12,572 Amit: So what do we learn from the crisis for the informed investor? 856 00:40:12,602 --> 00:40:14,282 Crisis opportunities. 857 00:40:14,832 --> 00:40:18,162 For uninformed investor, this is the time where they start selling their 858 00:40:18,162 --> 00:40:20,202 stocks and getting rid of portfolios. 859 00:40:20,742 --> 00:40:22,212 And when they do that. 860 00:40:22,212 --> 00:40:25,062 They're unable to take advantage of the hikes because what happens is 861 00:40:25,062 --> 00:40:28,152 when somebody just, let's say this is the performance of certain stock, 862 00:40:28,452 --> 00:40:33,042 and they suddenly, let's say, because of panic, they sell their stock here 863 00:40:33,042 --> 00:40:37,392 at this point, and then some point in time it goes up and they're in 864 00:40:37,392 --> 00:40:38,952 denial that the market is going up. 865 00:40:39,462 --> 00:40:40,572 And they've lost. 866 00:40:40,812 --> 00:40:44,752 If they had, sold the stock at, let's say $30 and it's at $35, 867 00:40:44,932 --> 00:40:47,782 they'd be like, oh, I'll wait for the stock to come back to $30. 868 00:40:47,902 --> 00:40:48,292 And you know what? 869 00:40:48,292 --> 00:40:52,162 It may never come back and you lose out on all that growth that 870 00:40:52,162 --> 00:40:53,512 happens over and over again. 871 00:40:53,512 --> 00:40:53,842 Why? 872 00:40:53,902 --> 00:40:57,712 That's why I say the money moves from the pockets of informed, sorry. 873 00:40:57,712 --> 00:41:00,142 Money moves from the pockets of uninformed to the informed 874 00:41:00,142 --> 00:41:01,852 investors, and that's my aim. 875 00:41:02,122 --> 00:41:02,872 I'm trying to. 876 00:41:03,227 --> 00:41:07,117 Just give a little off the knowledge that I can share because there's again, 877 00:41:07,507 --> 00:41:11,227 for everybody there is, there's so many resources online, go ahead and 878 00:41:11,227 --> 00:41:15,667 learn and yeah, it'll do wonders to your portfolio and to your wealth. 879 00:41:15,667 --> 00:41:16,417 So true. 880 00:41:16,417 --> 00:41:20,317 This time there was an almost 10% dip. 881 00:41:20,347 --> 00:41:23,347 The s and p 500 touched the 10% and went right back up. 882 00:41:24,037 --> 00:41:25,237 So what does all that mean? 883 00:41:25,837 --> 00:41:26,497 So here's. 884 00:41:26,827 --> 00:41:27,877 Here's some statistics. 885 00:41:27,877 --> 00:41:32,917 Here's a chart, a table that shows that how frequently do we have a 5% 886 00:41:32,917 --> 00:41:36,007 dip, 10% dip, 15% dip, and 20% dip. 887 00:41:36,007 --> 00:41:38,857 So it gives you some kind of an idea because people may be like, oh my 888 00:41:38,857 --> 00:41:40,447 goodness, the world is coming to an end. 889 00:41:40,637 --> 00:41:42,377 No, the world is not coming to an end. 890 00:41:42,407 --> 00:41:44,057 And this has happened many times before. 891 00:41:44,117 --> 00:41:45,557 So lemme show you some statistics. 892 00:41:46,007 --> 00:41:51,527 So when a market dips by 5% and by market here, this is typically s and p 500. 893 00:41:51,542 --> 00:41:53,492 But you can assign that to Nasdaq as well. 894 00:41:53,492 --> 00:41:57,812 So you can say s and p 500 had a 5% dip, or NASDAQ had a 5% dip. 895 00:41:58,022 --> 00:41:59,372 But what does a 5% dip mean? 896 00:41:59,492 --> 00:42:00,872 It means a pullback. 897 00:42:01,232 --> 00:42:03,242 And how frequently do pullbacks happen? 898 00:42:03,502 --> 00:42:06,652 Pullbacks happen roughly three times a year. 899 00:42:06,982 --> 00:42:07,852 Vinney: Three times a year. 900 00:42:07,882 --> 00:42:08,302 Three times 901 00:42:08,302 --> 00:42:08,482 Amit: a year. 902 00:42:08,722 --> 00:42:11,092 So if suddenly a 5% dip happens, don't panic. 903 00:42:11,542 --> 00:42:12,832 It happens three times a year. 904 00:42:13,012 --> 00:42:15,922 On average, it lasts for 43 days. 905 00:42:16,192 --> 00:42:19,612 And last it happened was just now, then a 10% dip is called a correction. 906 00:42:19,762 --> 00:42:21,022 Correction just happened. 907 00:42:21,022 --> 00:42:23,512 So first it was a 5% dip, then it went to a 10% dip, and the 908 00:42:23,512 --> 00:42:24,532 market went up after that. 909 00:42:24,802 --> 00:42:28,412 So it's slightly above that right now around, let's say 8% 910 00:42:28,412 --> 00:42:29,912 dip or so, since all time highs. 911 00:42:30,422 --> 00:42:31,862 How frequently does that happen? 912 00:42:31,862 --> 00:42:32,972 That happens one times a year. 913 00:42:33,152 --> 00:42:33,992 It's already happened. 914 00:42:33,992 --> 00:42:34,592 It just happened. 915 00:42:34,592 --> 00:42:36,902 Now how long does it last for? 916 00:42:36,932 --> 00:42:38,612 Average length is 110 days. 917 00:42:38,672 --> 00:42:39,842 Is it gonna last for 110 days? 918 00:42:39,842 --> 00:42:43,262 This time we don't know, but it's happened right now. 919 00:42:43,772 --> 00:42:48,242 Previously it happened was in October, 2023, and then it happened in March, 2025. 920 00:42:49,052 --> 00:42:49,892 We'll wait on what's happened. 921 00:42:49,922 --> 00:42:52,292 Wait and see whether it goes further down or not. 922 00:42:52,292 --> 00:42:55,952 But again, it's a point to show that there not, that this is not new. 923 00:42:56,612 --> 00:43:01,382 Now then comes a 15% dip and a 15% dip is called a deep correction. 924 00:43:02,042 --> 00:43:06,362 It happens one to three, one time a year. 925 00:43:06,707 --> 00:43:07,037 Sorry. 926 00:43:07,277 --> 00:43:10,382 It happens approximately one time every three years. 927 00:43:10,382 --> 00:43:10,667 Three years. 928 00:43:11,567 --> 00:43:13,007 One time every three years. 929 00:43:13,457 --> 00:43:15,977 Last four, roughly 251 days. 930 00:43:15,977 --> 00:43:17,627 And previously, when did it happen? 931 00:43:17,627 --> 00:43:19,307 Between June and October and 2022? 932 00:43:19,307 --> 00:43:19,667 It happened. 933 00:43:19,667 --> 00:43:22,097 So once every three years. 934 00:43:22,457 --> 00:43:24,287 Then there's something called the bear Market. 935 00:43:24,317 --> 00:43:25,457 20% drop. 936 00:43:25,517 --> 00:43:27,077 20% drop is a bear market. 937 00:43:27,527 --> 00:43:30,257 It happens one time every six years. 938 00:43:31,217 --> 00:43:32,117 Okay, these are historical. 939 00:43:32,117 --> 00:43:34,517 I'm not saying like it absolutely happened really like that. 940 00:43:34,517 --> 00:43:34,577 Yeah. 941 00:43:34,577 --> 00:43:38,457 But the average historical that this is what the calculations have been done. 942 00:43:38,967 --> 00:43:42,087 So happens approximately once every six years, lasts for three 943 00:43:42,207 --> 00:43:46,617 70 days, and the previous time it happened was Jan and October, 2022. 944 00:43:46,617 --> 00:43:47,427 So 945 00:43:47,427 --> 00:43:48,627 based on history. 946 00:43:49,167 --> 00:43:52,607 The recent dip that has happened, which is a correction, it just 947 00:43:52,637 --> 00:43:54,347 touched 10%, it went right back up. 948 00:43:54,737 --> 00:43:58,227 This is a normal correction. 949 00:43:58,917 --> 00:44:01,797 It's not a bear market at this time. 950 00:44:01,797 --> 00:44:03,087 Bear market is significant. 951 00:44:03,087 --> 00:44:03,417 Dip. 952 00:44:04,047 --> 00:44:08,067 When you watch my analysis on my video and technical analysis, I show 953 00:44:08,187 --> 00:44:12,177 through indicators and the performance and behavior of the market compared 954 00:44:12,177 --> 00:44:15,057 to, let's say the 200 moving day, 200 day simple moving average. 955 00:44:15,057 --> 00:44:15,147 Yes. 956 00:44:15,477 --> 00:44:16,857 What those really mean. 957 00:44:17,727 --> 00:44:20,007 At this time, we're not in any of those territories. 958 00:44:20,217 --> 00:44:22,257 These are really opportunities to deploy cash. 959 00:44:22,287 --> 00:44:26,577 I personally have had an opportunity to nibble on some of the stocks that I was 960 00:44:26,577 --> 00:44:28,857 watching to acquire them in my portfolio. 961 00:44:29,127 --> 00:44:31,737 I still have a lot cap, a lot of cash setting because I don't like to 962 00:44:31,737 --> 00:44:33,297 deploy all my capital in one time. 963 00:44:33,297 --> 00:44:34,437 Otherwise I run outta bullets. 964 00:44:34,532 --> 00:44:36,717 So this is called dollar cost averaging. 965 00:44:36,837 --> 00:44:39,897 And again, these are certain things that you, people will learn as they start. 966 00:44:39,927 --> 00:44:42,237 Following the knowledge that I share and take the course, 967 00:44:42,237 --> 00:44:43,167 the free course that I have. 968 00:44:43,167 --> 00:44:43,767 All right folks. 969 00:44:44,277 --> 00:44:48,987 So based on those declines that I just mentioned, here is a chart that I have. 970 00:44:48,987 --> 00:44:51,057 So this is current. 971 00:44:51,207 --> 00:44:55,147 So market is currently sitting somewhere close to, like I think it's 972 00:44:55,147 --> 00:44:57,877 about 8% dip since all time high. 973 00:44:58,027 --> 00:45:00,577 I don't remember the exact number, so you can just calculate that. 974 00:45:00,907 --> 00:45:05,137 But when I took the snapshot, I think a week ago, it was sitting at 6.8% now. 975 00:45:05,237 --> 00:45:08,837 There was a 9.7% decline that happened a little before. 976 00:45:08,987 --> 00:45:10,547 So these dips just continue to happen. 977 00:45:10,597 --> 00:45:12,667 Here, 27% decline that happened. 978 00:45:12,667 --> 00:45:13,297 Why did it happen? 979 00:45:13,297 --> 00:45:17,557 Because there were inflationary inflation had gone up, remember it skyrocketed. 980 00:45:17,557 --> 00:45:20,587 And then feds had to go in and increase interest rates. 981 00:45:20,737 --> 00:45:23,107 So not that they had not never raised those interest rates. 982 00:45:23,107 --> 00:45:26,917 They just raised the interest rates at their fastest pace in history, 983 00:45:27,097 --> 00:45:30,007 which is what brought the stock market down and start to cool the inflation. 984 00:45:30,277 --> 00:45:35,287 And now the inflation is sitting, little above 2% or somewhere between two and 3%. 985 00:45:35,342 --> 00:45:37,142 And the feds want to bring it to 2%. 986 00:45:38,102 --> 00:45:40,292 So the measures that they had taken are working. 987 00:45:40,712 --> 00:45:43,772 Then during Covid, the market had hit bear market territory. 988 00:45:43,832 --> 00:45:45,032 Now, not for too long, right? 989 00:45:45,032 --> 00:45:46,832 It went down, it went right back up. 990 00:45:47,312 --> 00:45:52,572 So at this time when I was watching using the A, the simple moving averages, 991 00:45:52,572 --> 00:45:55,542 I was able to identify somewhere here the market had gone to bear territory. 992 00:45:55,782 --> 00:45:59,652 So based on my knowledge, I was able to acquire stocks of a lot 993 00:45:59,652 --> 00:46:00,882 of great quality companies here. 994 00:46:01,212 --> 00:46:02,442 And then I've. 995 00:46:02,877 --> 00:46:05,967 Been very fortunate to take advantage of the growth. 996 00:46:06,357 --> 00:46:11,427 But again, these kinds of opportunities come, but you have to know how to deploy 997 00:46:11,427 --> 00:46:16,107 your cash in the stock market because in the long run, the market always goes up, 998 00:46:16,217 --> 00:46:16,817 Vinney: so true. 999 00:46:17,297 --> 00:46:17,447 Okay. 1000 00:46:17,537 --> 00:46:18,977 Fabulous information. 1001 00:46:18,977 --> 00:46:20,927 Oh my gosh, this is so great. 1002 00:46:21,177 --> 00:46:26,997 Amit, for you to come on my show and really give so much knowledge and I 1003 00:46:26,997 --> 00:46:31,737 know we'll be doing it a lot more, and also promoting you in my channels 1004 00:46:31,737 --> 00:46:37,267 because it's the informed investor can really make, grow their money. 1005 00:46:37,792 --> 00:46:38,362 Safely. 1006 00:46:38,392 --> 00:46:39,022 Absolutely. 1007 00:46:39,022 --> 00:46:39,712 That's the word. 1008 00:46:39,712 --> 00:46:39,982 Absolutely. 1009 00:46:40,172 --> 00:46:42,952 Amit: And like people take advantage of diversification and yeah. 1010 00:46:42,952 --> 00:46:45,412 If you look at some of the most wealthiest people, what do they do? 1011 00:46:45,442 --> 00:46:46,432 They have diversification. 1012 00:46:46,432 --> 00:46:47,692 They have some money in real estate. 1013 00:46:47,812 --> 00:46:48,142 So true. 1014 00:46:48,142 --> 00:46:52,792 Some money in bonds, some money in stocks, some money in some business. 1015 00:46:53,272 --> 00:46:55,882 So that when the market starts to take a dip. 1016 00:46:56,332 --> 00:46:57,742 Some things go down, others go up. 1017 00:46:57,742 --> 00:47:02,207 So it's actually the diversification in that case that I'm talking about yes. 1018 00:47:02,207 --> 00:47:06,407 Is not necessarily only for growth, it's also for risk hedging. 1019 00:47:06,917 --> 00:47:07,547 Yes. 1020 00:47:07,627 --> 00:47:09,007 To manage volatility. 1021 00:47:09,007 --> 00:47:09,607 Volatility. 1022 00:47:09,607 --> 00:47:12,397 What is volatility is the sudden ups and downs of spikes. 1023 00:47:13,177 --> 00:47:13,267 Yeah. 1024 00:47:13,267 --> 00:47:14,647 It's to manage that volatility. 1025 00:47:15,127 --> 00:47:17,827 So to all your viewers, I thank you. 1026 00:47:18,037 --> 00:47:21,967 Now I have a free course available where I put a lot of energy. 1027 00:47:22,657 --> 00:47:26,107 To in, to genuinely share in useful information. 1028 00:47:26,737 --> 00:47:28,357 Which is foundational. 1029 00:47:28,357 --> 00:47:32,037 And I in my experience, lot of experienced investors don't even 1030 00:47:32,037 --> 00:47:33,327 have this foundational knowledge. 1031 00:47:33,447 --> 00:47:37,527 I begin the course with explaining what are equity markets and debt markets, 1032 00:47:37,587 --> 00:47:42,237 and then I go into explaining, where, how do equities work, how do debts work? 1033 00:47:42,237 --> 00:47:45,227 Where can people what can people do to diversify how they can take 1034 00:47:45,227 --> 00:47:47,327 advantage of freely available? 1035 00:47:47,827 --> 00:47:52,777 Investment vehicles like ETF exchange traded funds where there are very smart 1036 00:47:52,777 --> 00:47:54,067 people who are already managing them. 1037 00:47:54,067 --> 00:47:56,017 I discuss all kinds of interesting items there. 1038 00:47:56,017 --> 00:47:59,707 There I also go into economics, which I just use as a foundation 1039 00:47:59,917 --> 00:48:01,357 to, to deliver this lecture today. 1040 00:48:01,627 --> 00:48:08,437 But my website is www.informedandinvested.com free course. 1041 00:48:08,507 --> 00:48:09,797 Free Telegram community. 1042 00:48:10,187 --> 00:48:14,467 Join me and, I get encouragement by when people join and we communicate. 1043 00:48:14,872 --> 00:48:15,742 So awesome. 1044 00:48:15,742 --> 00:48:17,782 And you were also part of my community, so thank you for that. 1045 00:48:18,382 --> 00:48:19,372 Vinney: Oh, no, thank you. 1046 00:48:19,372 --> 00:48:23,662 Thank you so much, Amit, you, this has been a tremendous, I hope everybody 1047 00:48:23,842 --> 00:48:27,962 who has watched it, please share this episode with your loved ones, with 1048 00:48:27,962 --> 00:48:30,272 your family, with your colleagues, and. 1049 00:48:30,332 --> 00:48:37,512 Give five star reviews because our podcast came in 1.5% in the top, and 1050 00:48:37,512 --> 00:48:44,292 also I, my real estate podcast came at number 11 out of top 50 apartment 1051 00:48:44,292 --> 00:48:46,842 syndication, apartment investing in USA. 1052 00:48:47,352 --> 00:48:52,122 I'm very pleased about all the contents that my team is putting together. 1053 00:48:52,122 --> 00:48:54,042 My guests bring all that. 1054 00:48:54,042 --> 00:48:55,722 So thank you so much for your time. 1055 00:48:56,122 --> 00:48:56,442 Amichi. 1056 00:48:56,442 --> 00:48:57,587 I really appreciate that. 1057 00:48:57,642 --> 00:48:58,092 Thank you. 1058 00:48:58,092 --> 00:48:59,442 You're doing such a fantastic 1059 00:48:59,442 --> 00:48:59,802 Amit: job. 1060 00:49:00,162 --> 00:49:00,732 Keep spreading 1061 00:49:00,732 --> 00:49:01,062 Vinney: the light. 1062 00:49:01,062 --> 00:49:01,212 Amit: Thank 1063 00:49:01,212 --> 00:49:01,302 Vinney: you. 1064 00:49:01,712 --> 00:49:02,252 Thank you. 1065 00:49:02,252 --> 00:49:07,322 We should spread the knowledge because there is one place in every city, 1066 00:49:07,442 --> 00:49:13,472 in every town where there is so much knowledge that's buried under the ground. 1067 00:49:13,552 --> 00:49:14,932 And that's the cemetery. 1068 00:49:15,382 --> 00:49:16,402 That's the cemetery. 1069 00:49:16,402 --> 00:49:16,762 Oh my goodness. 1070 00:49:16,852 --> 00:49:21,412 In every village, in every town, in every part of the world. 1071 00:49:21,622 --> 00:49:23,152 And we need to really be. 1072 00:49:23,762 --> 00:49:27,362 Giving our knowledge out living the legacy. 1073 00:49:27,442 --> 00:49:29,542 Because so many great ideas die. 1074 00:49:29,572 --> 00:49:30,382 When we die. 1075 00:49:30,772 --> 00:49:37,012 So many great opportunities die and let's just make this world a brighter place. 1076 00:49:37,462 --> 00:49:38,632 And we have that. 1077 00:49:39,502 --> 00:49:44,872 I think it's, God has given us the strength to really impart of our knowledge 1078 00:49:44,872 --> 00:49:47,632 and I respect everybody who does that. 1079 00:49:47,842 --> 00:49:51,532 And please, if you'd like to be on my show on my four shows that 1080 00:49:51,532 --> 00:49:56,162 I do, please reach out to Vinney Chopra team and we, look into it. 1081 00:49:56,162 --> 00:49:59,582 Amit, thank you so much for your time and we'll do it again. 1082 00:49:59,762 --> 00:50:00,782 Thank you so much. 1083 00:50:01,532 --> 00:50:01,862 Have a good day. 1084 00:50:01,862 --> 00:50:02,132 Bye-bye