the rate of growth, the rise over run was the fastest in history.
And that spooked investors.
So investors took money out of the stock market and started putting in bonds.
And at the same time, when the monies became difficult to get, because
interest rates were high, things started to become cooler, right?
Hi there guys.
This is Vinny Chopra back with my great friend Amit Chandan.
If you have not seen our episodes from before, like two, three
months back, we just published it again on the Desi Money Show.
Please go back and see what a tremendous knowledge Guru Amit is
on stock market and volatility and what's happening in the economy and
how it's going to really shape up 2024
by December with the election year is right here in USA.
So Amitji, welcome to the show.
Welcome.
It's such a pleasure to have you.
Thank you, Vinayji.
Thank you.
I think, you know what, market has been reacting in an amazing way.
some people who know how to, or the people who know how to take advantage
of this market must be very happy.
But those people who don't know what's going on, I have, a session packed
with knowledge for you all today.
Oh my gosh.
Can't wait.
It's going to be very exciting guys.
If you're in the car listening to us, please look at the video edition on
the YouTube channel and all over so that you can really get the most of it.
So please share your screen.
And we can dig right into it.
Yes.
Perfect.
Can you see my screen?
Perfect.
So folks, my name is Amit Chandan.
Thank you for bringing me back.
So today is August 13 and I'd like to do a market analysis and show you guys
what's been actually happening behind the hood and what I expect is going
to happen for the rest of the year.
And, if you guys want to watch my market analysis, I regularly
release these every month.
So before we get going, please read this legal disclaimer.
Remember, I'm not selling anything.
And what I'm about to share with you are just my views based on my research.
So since July 17th this year, the market has taken a dip, right?
And the market dip accelerated on August 1.
Now as of 5th of this, this month, which is August 5th, the S& P
500 index had gone down by 9.
7%.
And remember S& P 500 represents a collection of 500 largest
companies listed in the stock exchanges in the United States.
NASDAQ that has more than 3, 000 companies listed in it,
and that are mostly technology companies ended up dipping by 15.
7%.
And Russell 2000, which is a collection of 2000 smallest to
midsize companies went down by 13%.
Now, obviously we can't forget crypto, but as you all know,
crypto is highly volatile.
Kyle.
Since July 29 this year, Bitcoin, which is a major cryptocurrency, went down by 29%.
But as you can see, Bitcoin has had a downward trajectory since March last year.
So if you notice, it's just been going down and down.
And since March to this point, the Bitcoin currency went down by 33%.
those of you who have been hoping for this to grow, go up, and may have
invested in March, April last year, have not seen their wealth grow.
It's actually going down.
And I'll discuss several reasons why this has happened.
Now, another, very popular cryptocurrency is Same thing happened in Ethereum.
Since July 22nd.
Ethereum dropped by a whopping 40 percent until August 2nd, until August 5th.
But since March of last year, till the 5th of August this
year, it had dropped by 48%.
So clearly, Vinayji and everybody else, something has been happening in the
market that has brought us volatility.
Yeah.
Yep.
So what are these reasons?
And I'm going to explore those right now with you all.
So first reason is that last week US job data for July came in and the employment
rate fell below the consensus and the unemployment rate Increased by 0.
2 percent to an amount, which is 4.
3%.
So although overall it's going down, but in the last little
while it's been increasing.
So last month, the unemployment rate was sitting as 4.
3%.
But a recent study by Fitch, which just came out a couple days ago, said that
the jobless rate was largely driven by workers joining and rejoining the labor
force rather than a meaningful job loss.
And permanent job losses are still contained, only making
up less than 20 percent of the increase in unemployment rate.
So these are people going in and out while hiring rates have slowed down
meaningfully Layoffs remain close to a 20 year low, which is a good news And
this triggered a recession indicator called the Sam recession indicator,
which in the past has been accurate predictor of recession by 100%.
Oh, wow.
So when people are like, hey, this thing has been correct 100 percent of the
time and it got triggered again, oh my goodness, there was a panic all over.
So I'll show you that indicator.
And interestingly, this indicator is available in the US government's website.
So this indicator, which is called the Sam recession indicator, it signals
the start of a recession when the three month moving average of the
national unemployment rate rises by 0.
5 percent points or more relative to the minimum of the three month
averages from the past 12 months.
But this time.
This indicator was triggered by an increased labor supply rather
than the unemployment rate, making this a false positive.
And this indicator is actually made by this lady named Claudia.
So when people asked, okay, Claudia, Sam, what do you think?
This is what she said.
She says, our understanding of what is happening right now is so very challenged.
And what that means is, and I will be the first to say as someone
who has this rule attached to her name, don't just rely on one tool.
She says, don't just rely on one tool.
She also says, we are not in recession now, contrary to the historical
signal from the Sam rule, but the momentum is in that direction.
A recession is not inevitable, and there is a substantial
scope to reduce interest rates.
So what she's basically saying is, don't just rely on this
one indicator that I have.
You got to look at other things.
And she's saying recession is not inevitable.
There's no, a recession may not happen.
And she's saying there are certain things you can do.
Now, remember in order for recession to take place, right?
Certain things have to happen in the economy.
What has to happen?
The GDP has to continue for continuously fall.
But here is the GDP of the United States.
This is a Q2.
But if you notice the three quarters before the GDP was going down, right?
It was going down, but in from Q1 to Q2, GDP started to raise.
So if GDP is rising, that doesn't show there's recession coming, right?
And the GDP in the second quarter reached 2.
8 percent growth in the U.
S.
Yes.
Even though it was shrinking before, but then it ended up raising.
Now I'm going to show you these charts that I have of what
happened with inflation in 2021 and continued till 2022, right?
In 2021, inflation started increasing right here.
So inflation started increasing, leading to a rise in the
price of goods and services.
And to curb inflation, the federal reserve came in and said
we need to do something, right?
What had happened before was there was too much free money.
Why was there was too much free money?
Because the interest rate was almost zero.
So when the interest rates were almost zero, that means people
were taking money and investing in all kinds of things, right?
They could be going on vacation, they could be investing
in consumer goods, right?
So when money kept flowing in the market, that means the demands of
general goods and services increased.
And when the demands of goods and services increases, then the businessmen
come and say let's raise the price because we're going to make more money.
And when they make more money, things just, things become more
and more expensive for consumers.
So that's exactly what started happening.
Inflation started to go because things just kept getting more and more expensive.
So Fed said, we need to cut this.
We need to stop.
We need to halt this sudden increase in prices or continuous increase in prices.
So they have a few tools in their toolkit.
And one of the tools is interest rate.
So they said, we're going to start increasing the interest rate.
So from practically zero, they started raising interest rates.
Now interest rates had been this high in the past, but what happened,
which was unique this time was the rate of growth, the rise over
run was the fastest in history.
And that spooked investors.
So investors took money out of the stock market and started putting in bonds.
And at the same time, when the monies became difficult to get, because
interest rates were high, things started to become cooler, right?
And inflation started to go down.
Because the money supply goes down, small to medium sized businesses
that depend heavily on debt can no longer afford the debt.
So when they can't afford the debt, they stop taking debt, and then suddenly
the projects and programs that they would have otherwise spent money
on, they stop spending that money.
And then unemployment rates start to go high, And when that
happens, people become nervous and they say, let's not spend money.
And when they stopped spending money, then the demand for things goes down and the
supply increases and the price goes down.
And that's exactly what happened.
So the United States inflation rate started to go down and the
United States goal was to bring the inflation rate to two percent.
Two percent.
Yeah.
So they came, as of last month, came very close to that, which
means what they're hoping to achieve was actually working, right?
So here I have a chart.
that shows the consumer price index.
So last month, the consumer price index for the first time ever hit
negative territory, exactly what the feds were hoping to achieve.
March, it came to a certain height.
April, it remained the same.
May, it went down.
June, it was zero.
And then in July, it went to negative territory, which was fantastic.
And CPI is monthly.
So as of July 11, this is what it was showing.
And when you analyze that, the analyze inflation rate came to 3%.
Wow.
Which was absolutely fantastic.
So the figures, when you look at the economy is actually showing good signs.
But now what's going on in the market is the investors and people in the
market are saying maybe feds took too long, maybe feds should have lowered
the interest rates some time ago.
And you know what, if the figures that we got in August of unemployment rate in
July because they come one month later.
So if those had come a month prior, maybe the feds would have lowered
the interest rates already, but they just got the unemployment figures.
So now they're acting.
And then the predictions of the rate cuts have now changed drastically,
which I'm going to show you.
Yes.
Now, interestingly, countries like Canada already have, were already foreseeing
this and they had started to cut their interest rates starting June this year.
So in Canada, I'm in Canada, our interest rates had already been
cut and there are projections of these being cut in the future.
Now same thing is going to replicate in the United States.
Did you know that Japan, which is one of the major economies in the world,
has a very strong banking system, right?
We all know that.
But did you know that the interest rates of Japanese yen,
which is in the yellow line,
Had been practically zero since the year 2008.
Free money.
Until just now.
Until two weeks ago.
I did not know that.
So what many people were doing, many traders are like, oh great,
here's an arbitrage opportunity.
What they would do is they'd take a loan from Japan, And they would
invest in the United States economy.
So in the stock market, in the bond market, et cetera, et
cetera, in the crypto markets.
'cause they get free money from there and they're like, okay, we'll put money here.
and the American, I guess equity and debt market had been very strong.
So they were making money?
Yes.
so something happened that removed this arbitrage opportunity because
money was so freely available in Japan and people would borrow this.
Japanese inflation kept growing.
They were like, we need to curb this.
So here's a CPI.
it was growing and then although it went down, but it started to grow again.
So the bank of Japan says, that's it.
No more are, we're not leaving this money, for almost 0 percent interest.
So they said on 31st of July that we're going to raise interest rates.
Yes.
So no longer is it going to be 0%.
And guess what happened on the 1st of August?
People who had taken money out from Japan, they're like, Oh my
goodness, now I have to pay money.
This arbitrage opportunities is going away.
So they started taking money out of the US stock exchanges and the bond market and
the crypto market and put back in Japan.
Consequently, the Japanese yen grew in price.
And as because most of the, a lot of our big portion of the
training happens through Amazon.
Algorithmic trading.
So these bots, when they saw suddenly money being plucked and sales are
happening in the equity market debt market and the crypto market, these bonds started
to sell and a ripple effect occurred.
And when the ripple effect occurred, the market took a dip.
And that's why I showed you that since August one market took a sudden dip.
And it happened heavily in crypto market as well.
But remember, cryptos are heavily volatile, but it happened in Nasdaq.
It happened in S and P 500 and S and P 500, because it has
500 of the largest companies.
It had the lowest dip Nasdaq had larger and crypto markets just had crazy dips.
So this was the other reason
in 2022, as I mentioned, the feds raised interest rates at its fastest To defeat
inflation, but now that the inflation is on a downtrend, the central banks
can remove those brakes and press on the accelerator to increase the economy.
And how do they do that?
By lowering the interest rates.
So feds are now looking to cut interest rates.
I had mentioned last month that I view three cuts happening this year.
And now as the time comes closer, those are starting to become more evident.
and I think there's a possibility that if the unemployment rates keep
coming out stronger, which means employment gets weaker this next
month for the month of August, then I think they're going to deteriorate.
They're going to probably do a cut of 50 basis points, and the 50
basis point may continue occurring.
If the economy continues to remain weak, but if the economic science
shows signs of strength, then it's going to be 25 basis point.
And that may continue.
we have to see how it happens and to what numbers that happens, but
it's invariably going to happen.
But the forecast now for the longer duration is the following.
So the rate cuts will continue happening.
I think I'm projecting about three this year.
So one, two, three, and then thereafter, they're going to continue happening.
So all the way till the middle or end of 2026, I think the feds are going
to continue cutting rates and come below 2%, which is good news for real
estate because as the mortgage rates go down, real estate prices go up.
And at the same rate, as a money becomes more available, businesses can take loans
and start injecting in their businesses and that increase, that pushes money
in the markets, demand goes up and the stock market also goes up, which
means good times are about to come.
But you got to know how to play this game otherwise people
will continue losing money.
So here's what the Fed watch tool is now saying.
Currently, the interest rates as of now, as of today are between 525 basis points.
525 to 550 basis points, right?
Yep.
Now, as of today, and I took the screenshot this morning, as of today
on September 18th, when the next FOMC meeting occurs, there is a likelihood
of the feds cutting interest rates by 25 basis point to 500 to 525.
And the probability is 50.
5%.
But remember earlier, I was saying that if the economic indicators
keep coming out weak, then they may cut out 50 basis points.
Guess what?
While 25 basis point cut is 50%.
The chances of cut by another 25 point is also 50%.
Which is 49.
5%.
So there's a probability it may cut to 475 to 500 basis points, bringing
this reduction potentially to 0.
5%.
And that's looking in September.
Now let's fast forward two more months to November.
and in November, there is a potential of a rate cut by 39
percent to 475 to 500 basis points.
So if it doesn't happen here, it's going to happen here.
But at that time, there is a higher probability of a rate cut by 49.
7 percent to 550 to 4.
475 basis points.
So that's going to be a reduction from today, a potential of a reduction of 0.
75%.
Okay.
Now let's fast forward.
Remember, I was saying there's potential for three rate cuts.
So in December 2024, there is a 46.
8 percent probability of rates coming down to 425 to 450 basis point, which
from today brings it to minus 1%.
Yes.
Like I said in the two slides ago, these rates are expected to
continue going down because now Feds have a very important job.
Their job is to make sure the economy stays not too hot, not too cool.
It stays in the Goldilocks zone.
So because inflation increased so much post COVID, they had to put
breaks by increasing interest rates.
Now they've got to press on the accelerator.
Yes.
So true.
This is so in alignment with, I've been reading also, and thank
you so much for really showing so nicely the whole progression.
Hey guys, if you missed any part of it, I would highly recommend that you go back
on the video edition of our podcast and the show so that you could really see
what and Amitji just makes it so simple.
He keeps, he just gives you no fluff whatsoever straight to the point.
And it's so understandable.
See, a lot of times all these economic terms are like Greeks, Greek,
how many people don't understand.
And a lot of people are not analytical in mindset, but this makes it so simple.
I just love it.
And I also read up the promise.
We promise that we'll bring it to you every two months.
Now, not even every three months.
I think it's going to be fantastic.
So that, Amitji can be really sharing with us all the great nuggets that
he has mastered so that we can all really become very financially savvy
in doing the markets, changing of the markets and investing in stocks
and all along with real estate, because real estate is a trick.
Thank you.
You're absolutely right.
And I was in the same boat, right?
Like when I read articles, I read so much fluff on the internet.
Sometimes, unfortunately, even some prominent analysts get it wrong.
Now I do want to say.
There's nobody has a crystal ball.
Everybody's basically making their assumptions based
on their past experiences.
This is how I view the market.
That's why I'm saying, I'm not telling people to go buy anything.
I'm sharing how this is my view.
This is how I see it.
I base it on facts.
The facts are right in front of you.
This information is freely available to you.
Totally.
No.
And I love the clarity.
I like the simplicity and I love that each and every graph you've covered,
it's so succinct thank you so much Yeah.
So now.
everybody's going to say Amit, how is the market going to perform this year?
So I have a chart that shows you the average performance of S& P 500 in
all election years since the year, 1950, and you're going to notice
that the summertime is typically supposed to be a rough patch, right?
And there's supposed to be an increased volatility and volatility remains
all the way till election occurs.
And typically we know election occurs around, first of November.
So till then, there is typically supposed to be volatility.
And after that market grows, which is called the Santa Claus rally.
Now for longterm investment investors, many opportunities are
going to come to pick stocks of great quality companies this year.
But remember, Don't just invest your money in any stock.
Invest in stocks of great quality companies that have a wide economic moat,
which means they have a huge barrier to entry from competitors, that they
have strong financial statements, and remember, to pre plan your allocations,
so do not over allocate in one stock.
Yes.
And your investment process ultimately is highly important.
If a good investment process, you've thought through, you're
going to keep making money.
I see that in my portfolio regularly, right?
It just continues to grow.
And whenever the market takes a dip, I'm like, Hey, I'm sitting in cash.
Now it's time for me to enter throughout this year.
I had very few opportunities to enter, but last week market just took a great turn.
I was like, Hey, time to go buy.
It's on Christmas sale right now.
I love it.
We went shopping , so carry on with this and any of viewers who want to,
better learn how to invest or follow my views, like I have a free channel.
Just join me on Amid and then Financial Knowledge.
I have on every one of the slides at the top, I've written the Facebook group.
Yes.
I'm so happy.
And you know what?
I would love maybe as a follow up with this one in about even two weeks, we
could talk about what companies should, how to determine, what big companies
one should be looking into analyzing.
Yeah.
I can definitely share the mechanism of analyzing.
Absolutely.
There's a whole science and math to it.
there are some key fundamentals everybody's got to remember.
And if you follow those fundamentals, which are easy to at least start
getting an idea of, and then you can go into deeper study because
this is a vast field and wall street is full of very educated people.
So it takes time, but yes, I'd be very happy.
And this is my passion.
that'll be fantastic.
That'll be great.
No, I can't wait.
I know for last six or maybe a year we've been thinking about, doing
joint, videos cast and everything and putting them into a reservoir.
Where it's a knowledge base, which you are already doing it in the
Facebook and YouTube and everything.
And we could even promote that on both the sites, your channel kind of view.
Yeah.
No, I can do that.
My pleasure.
Cause I've got a lot of following as some in every channel.
So no, I'm very excited about it.
This is, and I'm learning in the process.
I feel I made good money, but there's always room to grow
and understand the semantics.
Another reason The market distress can be attributed to
the uncertainty in how the U.
S.
elections could turn out.
Remember, the stock market does not like uncertainty and uncertainty in the stock
market exists in the short term, right?
Yeah.
Until very recently, it was looking like Donald Trump was going to
be the clear winner of the United States presidential elections.
But ever since Kamala Harris came in the picture, the certainty of Donald
Trump winning the election has eroded.
No, I'm not saying one is going to win or the other is going to sing.
I'm just saying that certainty has eroded and stock market hates uncertainty.
Let's not go into predictions.
Let's look at how the markets have behaved in the past since
1957 all the way until now.
So until from 1957 until 2023 under Democratic and Republican
presidents and what has the returns of the S and P 500 been?
You'll notice that the stock market on average under democratic presidents
Returns an annualized return of 11.
4 Okay, and while the same s& p 500 under a republican president returns Wow.
So while, yes, market doesn't like the uncertainty, it doesn't really
matter who comes, but let's say even if Democrats end up winning.
Nothing to worry, folks, the stock market is going to go up and it
may even perform even better.
And that's what the history has to show.
So in other words, election year, which comes like every four years, we can
really expect the market to take off.
That's what it's saying.
So how the market behaves in the election year is marked by this chart,
which shows me the average of how the election year, how the S& P 500
performs in election years since 1950.
And what that shows is market has typically an upward trajectory.
Until summer, then a sideways trajectory in the summer, and then it picks up And
sometimes even, and towards, September, October even takes a heavy dip.
But after the election, because the market has now understood the certainty knows who
is in power and, so when it knows who's in power, the market basically goes off.
And typically towards the end of the year, this time.
It's called the Santa Claus Rally.
And what is Santa Claus Rally?
Santa Claus Rally is basically a time of the year where people
like you and me and everybody else goes and buys Christmas gifts and
spends a lot of money in the market.
And when we spend money in the market, companies make money.
And when companies make money, we make money.
their returns become better and their stocks go up and that's
basically what happens in the market.
Now you cannot essentially time it by the exact week because
it's never going to be identical.
This dotted chart that I have is an average.
So sometimes a certain, growth may happen a month after a month before, and same
thing with dips like this year, instead of a growth in August, there was a dip.
So maybe it was this dip that happened earlier, or maybe
this dip that was supposed to happen previously happened now.
Nobody really knows that, but we got to understand is volatility occurs.
to embrace volatility.
And yes, as long as you know how to select company stocks of great quality
companies and be able to mathematically calculate what the fair market value is.
you will know what to buy and when to buy.
from all the people that I run into.
98 to 99 percent have no clue how to calculate the
fair market value of a stock.
They have no idea what net present value is.
They have no idea what discounted cash flow is.
They have no idea how to value banks.
You got to understand these things.
people ignore finance, but everybody wants to make money and have their wealth grow.
how can your wealth grow?
If you don't know finance, you've got to understand this stuff, or at least
some basics you got to understand.
Now, going back to the next chart where you asked me a question,
this chart doesn't represent the performance of S& P in election years.
It represents how the market does every year under
presidents of different parties.
if we have a president of the democratic party on average, SMP returns 11.
4%.
these are the averages that have been there since the year 1957.
I haven't made this chart.
I just got it from Motley Fool.
Surely.
Yes.
The Republican, a president under Republican party.
If that person comes into power, then the SMP 500 returns
on average 7 percent a year.
Got it.
That's what this chart shows.
Yes.
Perfect.
Now remember, I was telling you that the stock market is highly emotional
and irrational in the short term, and it ends up getting spooked by many number
of reasons or any number of reasons.
But in the long term, the stock market grows to reach its fair market value.
And the fair market values are calculated on the basis of companies earnings.
So I have a chart here that shows you the earning that shows the earning
insights of the S& P 500 companies.
In the second quarter just ended.
The green here represents all those companies and the percentage
of those companies in the sectors that have beaten analyst estimates.
Ah, the yellow represents when, it was in line with ES analyst estimates,
and the red shows that these companies did not meet the analyst expectations.
And right here is s and p 500, and you'll notice in s and p
500 that 78% of the companies.
Beat analyst expectations, 78 percent and inline were 6%.
So 78 plus 6 is 84.
That means 84 percent of the companies either beat analyst expectations or
met analyst expectations, leaving only 16 percent of the companies
below analyst expectations.
So if the companies continue to produce good earnings, Their fair
market values are going to grow.
And if their fair market values continue to grow, then invariably in
time, the stocks of those companies are going to get there shortly.
And if you, for those of you who want to pause and review this carefully,
you'll notice that this, each of these lines is represented by sectors.
So first the health.
Healthcare sector.
Then the real estate sector, industrials, financials, utilities,
then S and P 500 as an average.
generic materials, information, technology, energy, staples, consumer
discretionary, and communication services.
Yes.
That's what this chart shows.
It's freely available on the earning insight that you can go and get.
Now, lastly, we have to remember how the market typically behaves.
The market never goes up in the straight line.
You'll never see the stock market do this.
It always goes up and down and up and down and up and down.
When it goes up, you got to know that it's not going to go down.
So wait for the dips.
What a lot of people do is they buy stocks at when it's high because
there is euphoria in the market.
so if I consider this line in the middle to be the intrinsic
value, what happens is the stock.
reach that and then they go above.
When they go above, it's called overvalued.
When it goes below, it's called undervalued.
So stocks always go up and down and up and down.
And there are patterns that are predefined, or basically I should
say there's statistical analysis that has already been done.
And what is that?
the, these things exist, or what the analysis says is average
frequency of these kinds of dips.
So a dip that is 5 percent or more or 5 percent and less than 10 percent
happens about three times a year and their average length is 43 days.
And a dip of five.
Percent or more, but less than 10 percent occurs three times a year.
This time, the S and P 500 went down by 9.
7%.
So it fits right here.
It's not even a correction.
It's a dip between 10 and 15 percent is called the correction.
And that is 10 to 15%.
It happens once per year.
A severe correction is 15 percent to 20%.
So here's a severe correction.
This happens once every three years.
And a bear market is anything over 20%.
And that happens once every six years.
We just came out of a bear market, and we're seeing our first dip.
There are chances of three more of these in a year if you look at
statistics, probability and statistics.
So that means we'll have more opportunities to pick up stocks
at Christmas sales, which I call Christmas sales because they're dips.
Yes.
But this 42 days, 43 days, 110 days and 251, I'm thinking that's a long time.
That's right.
And I would say, how should investors look at it then?
I think some of the major dips that happened, in 2008, 2002,
those lasted for a long time.
They may be skewing the numbers, but I think recognizing that these dips
happen frequently is very important now to how you deal with them.
I'll tell you how you deal with them.
So let's say the stock market is going like this, right?
And suddenly a dip comes and it goes like this, it goes like this.
what you got to do is called portfolio management and allocation.
So if you have, let's say 20 stocks in your portfolio, that means every stock
is going to have 5 percent allocation.
you never allocate 5 percent in one shot.
You say, I'm going to do maybe three of these purchases a year.
So every quarter.
You can just start putting in one third or one fourth of your money that you
had pre allocated to a certain stock.
Then if a dip occurs, you're just getting a larger volume.
This is a very simple way of what's called dollar cost averaging.
Just keep doing that click click.
If a dip occurs for a longer duration of time, you're just going to get
a higher volume of those stocks.
When you get higher volume at lower cost, your average cost
per cost basis, ACB goes down.
And when the market picks up your cheaper stocks grow and
your total portfolio value grows.
That's basically how you take advantage of it.
you also have to be able to pick up stocks of good quality companies
because to say cheap junk is just junk.
If you say, Oh, this stock is really cheap, I'm going to buy it.
If it's junk stock, it's just junk.
You're accumulating junk.
So learn to figure out which are great quality companies and their mechanism.
There's a whole process to identifying that there's math
behind it and we're going to do it.
we'll set up a time, maybe two weeks from today.
so that you are ready and then we'll do, the another edition.
And you know what, to be truthful, I think this is so good knowledge.
I know I teach and talk and everything about real estate, commercial real
estate, and hotels, and multifamily, now senior assisted living,
residential assisted living, all that.
People's net worth is in the stock market, 39.
9 trillion are in the retirement funds, close to 40 trillion in retirement funds.
And that's what you're talking about right there.
And if somebody goes in, they have their 401ks IRAs, majority of them,
they're going to stock market.
And most of the people have no idea how to take advantage of the stock market.
They depend on, fancy financial advisors and suits and ties.
Yeah.
Whereas if you as an investor are the best person to take care
of your own financials, learn a little and you can do a lot better.
Join my Facebook group, which is Amit Chandan Financial Knowledge.
And I share all kinds of information on a regular basis.
I hope everybody does that.
Maybe I'm already there.
Facebook right there.
Yes.
Yeah.
So that's fantastic.
I will be, so Amit Chandan, financial knowledge guys.
And also Amitji has a YouTube channel also really big and also
on the Facebook and LinkedIn.
Also people can find you there.
Instagram.
But if you just go to my Facebook from there, people can get everywhere.
So I just kept that fabulous.
What else do in store?
So many great nuggets you've given this morning.
I'm really thankful to you.
I know lots of people will be joining your Facebook group and, we'll be
interacting with you and I, and let's make sure that we are able to teach.
And then these are only the views of Amit Chandanji and
myself, myself, very little here.
But remember, risks are always there, and we do not promote
anybody buying stocks or, this is for entertainment purposes only.
I want to qualify that so that no lawsuits come and so forth, I just want to say
that I've learned so much where the market is, where it's been, why it's behaving
like that, where the interest cuts will be coming, which is on everybody's not,
in my seminars, I do a lot of people ask me, so I'm going to send this.
Episode to all of them because they need to be watching this and really
getting into the driver's seat with what's fixing to happen with the lower
interest rates to be a boom for the real estate and for all the people who are
in distress and other things like that.
That's going to help a lot.
And not only that picking with the dollar cost averaging.
The stocks, which will be going for Christmas sale.
So would you wait?
I've got a question for you today is like August 13th.
So Should we wait a little bit more for it to come down?
It depends on a person's goal, right?
Some people may say.
I want to in for longterm, so I want to somebody maybe 40 right now and say by the
time I'm 60, I'm going to take out money.
As long as you know what to get, and if you know that the fair market value of
that stock is below its current trading price, and you know that you've already
created a list of stocks and you know how many you're going to allocate and how
much you're going to buy this time, right?
There are many cause risk management is number one.
As long as they know that.
Yeah.
I think now could be a great time to acquire today.
The market has jumped a little, so you gotta analyze those stocks
and say, which ones are still, under priced or fairly priced.
Clearly.
So true.
Can I also talk about in the last three weeks, it's been a downfall.
Almost some portfolios went down 20%.
Yes.
Why did that happen?
That's spooked the market so badly.
Yeah.
So your question is why did that happen?
Yes.
So my understanding right now is it happened because of, the higher
than expected unemployment rate.
So the bad data that came in, it happened because of the Japanese
yen and it's interest rate crisis.
Yes.
and this, recession indicator that went off.
So these were the key reasons that it happened.
Now the third reason why it was likely to have happened was because
the market was trading too high.
So a dip was inevitable.
A lot of stocks in the S& P 500 were trading above their intrinsic values
and they had to come down because it's like a rubber band, like a rubber band
you Extend and then it collapsed back.
So that's what happened.
I was watching the stocks go up and I had the fair market
values, a lot of companies.
I was like, there's not much of an opportunity right now.
I made some purchases in January this year, and then now I
bought nothing else in between.
Wow.
Because I don't, that's just the nature of my portfolio.
Now other people may have different portfolios.
Some people's portfolios may have dipped by 20, 30%.
That depends on what kind of stocks they had.
If they had highly volatile stocks, such as cryptocurrencies, then yes,
if your stock was an Ethereum, you may have seen a 40 percent dip.
But if stocks in more defensive categories or healthcare, may not have gone down.
Now, to understand which ones you would have invested in, if our viewers go back
to my previous podcast with you, I had shown performance of different sectors.
some sectors that had done really well last year, naturally they may
not have done that well this year.
And that's what happened.
I'm so glad you brought it up.
This is the one guys we were just talking about.
Please go back and look at this whole podcast.
She gave so many great nuggets.
It was mind blowing.
It was just last two months ago.
Yeah.
two months back and it's so much knowledge.
It's just fantastic.
I hope everybody really gets to see Amitji brings fantastic graphs
and everything just like this one.
Let's see here.
It's going to come.
Oh, look at this one here, there.
So there is so much going on.
Amitji is so much knowledge guru that I just totally and in simplificity
is able to explain all these things.
So please go back and look at this episode.
Also, we'll put the link right below so that you can really learn
a lot as we do this, sessions, maybe on every month, maybe we should.
And that'd be fantastic.
So I'm really thankful to Amitji.
Amitji, thank you so much.
I'm going to go back over here.
Oh, and share so that we could, people can see us.
right there Thank you for all your knowledge and It's been
such a pleasure to have you.
Thank you guys.
If you really liked episode, please share, comment and share the knowledge
with other family members, other people in your companies and everything
who can really take care of of their retirement funds and everything in their
investments and savings to get better returns, it's not good to just keep the
money under the pillow or putting it.
Into a bank account with two, three, 4 percent interest.
Great things can happen.
Again, this is educational show.
We are not promoting any, securities or any investments or anything like that.
It's for educational and entertainment purposes only.
Amitji, thank you.
And please say again, how can people reach you in Facebook?
With the Facebook.
My handle is Amit Chandan financial knowledge.
Amit Chandan, financial knowledge, fantastic.
See you in the next