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Mike: Let's analyze some poker hands with poker pro Gary Blackwood,

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you ready to go bro?

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Gary: I'm ready.

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Let's do it.

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Let's jump in.

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Mike: Alright,

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this first one was submitted by Lab member Simon.

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He's playing a 50c/$1 cash game online on the website GG

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Poker. He's in the cutoff with ten nine of hearts and

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he's got a $131 stack that's 131 big blinds.

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He open raises to $2.50

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the button,

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who covers him three bets to $9 and the blinds fold.

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Gary, what are you doing here with the ten nine of

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hearts in the cutoff facing this three bet?

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Mike: I'm spinning the random number generator.

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I'm calling 75% of the time,

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but this is going to be our four bet for us

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sometimes when we're playing online cash,

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this does make it into our four bet range,

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so a little bit of four bet,

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but mainly just call.

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Mike: I think that's interesting too because a lot of people

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build their four bet ranges more around removal.

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They'll want to have a hand like Ace five of hearts

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or even a King Jack of hearts.

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So you have two high cards that block a lot of

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the Ace Kings,

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the pocket Kings,

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things like that.

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But these hands,

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like ten nine of hearts specifically do get in the four

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bet ranges sometimes,

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especially in these late position battles,

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right, cutoff vs button.

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Gary: Yeah,

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absolutely. You think of some of the hands that you can

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make folds,

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if you're going to have Jack Ten of hearts you can

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make King Jack offsuit fold for example,

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and it's nice for us to have that little bit of

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board coverage for when the flop comes down 678.

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We're not just completely snookered,

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can I say snookered?

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Mike: That means nothing to an American.

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Gary: So it's definitely important that our four bet range is

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thorough and it's complete and it's not lacking hands like this.

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I think that's a nice way to put it.

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There are a lot of benefits to four betting a hand

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like this at some frequency.

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Mike: For sure.

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It is very nice to occasionally hit those boards very hard

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with your four bet range.

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So four betting a sliver over the time calling most of

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the time if you just always call this hand you're not

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making a huge mistake but you might want to start mixing

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in some four bets against looser players at least,

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if you're up against a very tight player,

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just call maybe even make a very tight fold.

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Alright, let's move on to the flop.

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So Simon calls that three bet with the ten nine of

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hearts. There is now 18 or so dollars in the pot

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and the flop comes Queen eight six with two diamonds the

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queen and the eight are the diamonds Q86,

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$18 in the pot.

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We check over to the button and the button goes for

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a big size here the button goes $12 into about $18-19,

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so around a two thirds pot bet.

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Gary, before we talk about what Simon should do against this

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kind of bigger bet size with his double gutshot straight draw,

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what do you think of the button size here?

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Gary: I think that's a great question and the reason I

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think it's a great question is a lot of us when

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we're reviewing hands will just look at how we played the

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hand, but we can learn a lot by looking at how

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our opponent played the hand as well.

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If I played this hand against one of the players in

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my pool,

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I would check to see if my opponent's size was correct

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and the reason for that is my instinct tells me that

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this is not the size that I would bet personally,

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but that doesn't necessarily mean that I'm correct.

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So I would go into the solver and check to see

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if this is the correct size or if my size is

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correct. So when we're reviewing hands,

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let's take the time to see if our opponent played the

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hand well as opposed to just assuming that they didn't because

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we can learn from both sides of the coin essentially.

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Having said that,

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I'm not a fan of the buttons c-bet size here.

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I think it is too big.

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We can go one third or half pot.

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The EV is very similar.

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I lean towards half pot because of the connectivity of the

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texture, but I think this is just a little too big

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from the button.

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Mike: And I want to make a quick note.

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If you're listening to this episode on Spotify or whatever and

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you're kind of having trouble following along,

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we're going to put every hand that we're reviewing in the

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description of this podcast,

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you could just hop in there if you're having any trouble

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following along.

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We can verify what Gary just said about the buttons flop

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size being too big using the Lucid GTO trainer,

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which is a tool currently in development coming soon to Upswing

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poker. So we're going to recreate the spot using the trainer.

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I'm going to have the cutoff raise just like Simon did

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in this hand.

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I will note that the cutoff here is using a slightly

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smaller raise size 2.25

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big blinds instead of 2.5.

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That does make a difference but overall it's going to be

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basically the same result.

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So now we're going to have the button three bet and

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it's going to fold back to us in the cutoff and

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we can see that ten nine suited is a call most

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of the time,

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72% of the time to be exact and a four bet

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28% of the time,

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just like Gary had said.

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Now let's get a queen eight six flop and then we're

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going to check over to the button and you can see

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here the button is given an option to go one of

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three sizes here.

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They can either go one quarter pot,

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half pot,

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or two thirds pot like the player did in Simon's actual

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hand. That bigger size of two thirds pot is chosen 0.0%

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of the time by the solver here.

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That means it is a size we never want to be

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using on this board with any of our hands.

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The smaller size is half pot and a quarter pot are

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far preferred just like Gary was saying,

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but if we do force the button to use that big

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size, we can immediately see how Simon is supposed to react

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with that ten nine suited.

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Gary, what was your instinct when we were looking at this

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hand? How would you play verse that big size as Simon?

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Gary: So the first thing I want to talk about here

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is something that we've spoken about in the past and it

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is a really amazing golden nugget of information.

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So to the viewers listening at home really ingrain this one

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into your psyche.

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So what I'm going to get Mike to do now is

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I'm going to get him to force the button to c-bet

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one third then to c-bet half pot and then to c-bet

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this size again.

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And what we'll see is that our raising range is the

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same virtually.

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There'll be some slight differences here and there but the frequency

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drastically changes.

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So if we force the one third c-bet here,

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we will see that we're raising the exact same range as

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we will when we force the half pot c-bet.

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So if we force the half pot c-bet now we'll see

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that the range is very,

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very similar.

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The frequencies just drop and then we'll force the larger bet

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size and once again the range is the exact same,

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the frequencies just drop.

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What do we learn from that?

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It's really great for us because we now know that the

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range that wants to raise as the exact same,

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we just raise less frequently versus the larger bets.

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It's really quite cool to see that the range is virtually

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identical. The frequencies just come down.

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Mike: And for those of you listening,

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what we're seeing on our screen right now is all of

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the hands that are raising on this queen eight six flop,

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the ones you'd expect,

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pocket sixes,

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pocket eights,

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some ten nines,

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some jack tens,

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some ace queen.

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So a lot of top pairs,

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sets, straight draws,

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hands like that are the hands that like to raise and

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as I flip through the different bet sizes,

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those hands all stay the exact same for the most part,

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but the percentage of the time that they raise goes down

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as I click through it.

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So versus that really small bet size a quarter pot,

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in this case Gary was saying third pot but it's going

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to be the same idea either way all of these hands

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are raising at a decent frequency.

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The overall raising frequency versus the small bet is 21% and

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it's all those hands I mentioned and several similar ones.

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If we force the half pot bet it's the same hands,

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it's just the raising sliver of the range goes down.

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So we're only raising 17% of the time now,

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but it's with the same hands then if we force the

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two third pot bet that Simon actually faced in game,

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we're only raising 12% of the time and no hand is

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raising at a super high frequency except for specifically pocket eights

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and pocket sixes,

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which tells you that the hands that want to raise the

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most in this scenario unsurprisingly are middle and bottom set.

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Gary: Yeah,

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absolutely. And I just want to very quickly touch upon why

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the solver does this.

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There are a couple of different reasons,

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but the main one is that the pot sizes essentially too

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small for the solvers liking when our opponent uses that small

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bet size,

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but when our opponent uses the larger bet size,

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we can still play for stacks and play for bigger pots

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much more comfortably.

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But that smaller bet size isn't big enough for the solver's

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liking when it has the strong hand,

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you build your range around your value and the solver does

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the exact same.

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Mike: Yeah.

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So the solver sees that small bet it has a set

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and it's like that's not enough money,

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we're going to put in more money on this flop,

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let's raise.

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But if it sees that big bet it's like you know

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what, I have a set,

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I'm going to go ahead and just call your big bet

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and we'll go to the turn in this bloated pot.

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Exactly. Going back to our hand here.

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So Simon is facing this two-thirds pot bet on the Queen

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eight six board with his ten nine of hearts and Simon

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actually ends up going for the raise,

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he makes it 29 to go,

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that is a solver approved size.

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If we pull this spot up in Lucid,

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Lucid likes to raise to 30 and Simon made it 29,

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so that's a very close.

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Simon got his size right here.

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The issue though is that his specific hand ten nine with

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no backdoor flush draw and ten nine with no flush draw,

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never really wants to raise here.

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His hand falls squarely into the just call category here and

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yet he goes for the raise and that could lead to

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some sticky situations later in this hand.

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Simon's opponent does call his check raise and the turn is

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the king of diamonds.

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That's a third diamond on this queen eight six king board.

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Simon still has his double gutshot straight draw with the ten

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nine but it's scribbled up quite a bit,

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right? Now that there are three diamonds on the board,

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he might be drawing dead if his opponent has a flush

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he could be drawing very thin if his opponent has a

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pair with one diamond.

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So considering all that Gary,

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what are you doing on the turn here with this ten

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nine of hearts?

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Gary: This is a really interesting turn card and it's very

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interesting to think about how we construct our range here.

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So generally we want to either have blockers or high equity

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draws. The issue here is that we just don't have a

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hand like Ace Jack with a diamond or Ace Ten with

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a diamond and the reason for that is that we don't

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call these hands pre flop.

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So normally we want to have a naked Ace of diamonds

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00:09:57,770 --> 00:09:59,190
type hands because one,

260
00:09:59,190 --> 00:10:00,780
we have a high equity draw and two,

261
00:10:00,780 --> 00:10:02,700
we have a very nice blocker to our opponent's range,

262
00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:05,470
but this is one of those rare instances where we just

263
00:10:05,470 --> 00:10:06,840
can't have a hand like that.

264
00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:10,870
So we are forced to choose some other unattractive combos if

265
00:10:10,870 --> 00:10:11,520
you like.

266
00:10:11,820 --> 00:10:13,850
And the reason I call it unattractive is because as Mike

267
00:10:13,850 --> 00:10:15,390
says, we could be drawing dead here,

268
00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:17,720
our opponent could have just turned a flush but we need

269
00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:19,880
something to bluff with and if we don't have a hand

270
00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:22,020
like Ace Jack with Ace of diamonds or Ace Ten with

271
00:10:22,020 --> 00:10:22,770
the diamonds,

272
00:10:22,770 --> 00:10:25,310
we have to choose something else and we prefer to choose

273
00:10:25,310 --> 00:10:27,150
something that has decent equity.

274
00:10:27,150 --> 00:10:28,470
Yes, we could be dead,

275
00:10:28,470 --> 00:10:30,330
but we do still have a double gutter here so if

276
00:10:30,330 --> 00:10:32,590
our opponent's got a set or one pair or two pairs,

277
00:10:32,590 --> 00:10:33,780
we've still got outs.

278
00:10:33,810 --> 00:10:36,750
So this is a really nice selection to continue barreling with

279
00:10:36,750 --> 00:10:37,440
in my opinion.

280
00:10:37,680 --> 00:10:38,880
We would rather have a hand like Ace Jack,

281
00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:41,130
Ace of diamonds but we just don't have that.

282
00:10:41,430 --> 00:10:43,780
So we want to choose a hand like this.

283
00:10:43,780 --> 00:10:46,200
We do have some naked diamond combos.

284
00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:49,130
The solver will always find some really funky hands to check

285
00:10:49,130 --> 00:10:50,400
raise the flop with,

286
00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:53,040
case in point here the solver is going to check raise

287
00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:55,130
a hand like pocket fives with a diamond,

288
00:10:55,130 --> 00:10:56,730
pocket fours with a diamond,

289
00:10:57,090 --> 00:11:00,000
maybe even a hand like sevens or nines with a diamond.

290
00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:03,640
So we do have some of those naked diamond combos working

291
00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:06,180
for us but they're very few and far between.

292
00:11:06,210 --> 00:11:09,170
So out with those we want to choose our higher equity

293
00:11:09,170 --> 00:11:10,200
draws if you like,

294
00:11:10,470 --> 00:11:11,940
and ten nine with a double gutter.

295
00:11:11,940 --> 00:11:14,650
I think this is a really good hand to continue to

296
00:11:14,650 --> 00:11:17,250
barrel with and I really like the size as well.

297
00:11:17,250 --> 00:11:20,250
The solver loves to use smaller bet sizes when flush is

298
00:11:20,250 --> 00:11:23,600
complete so I really do like this small bet size of

299
00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:24,740
$25 from Simon.

300
00:11:24,740 --> 00:11:26,920
Yeah, really nice selection,

301
00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:31,020
kind of forced to choose this hand and really nice sizing

302
00:11:31,020 --> 00:11:31,630
as well.

303
00:11:31,630 --> 00:11:32,590
Mike: Yeah,

304
00:11:32,590 --> 00:11:35,040
so Simon does go as Gary just said,

305
00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:36,520
$25 into the $77 pot,

306
00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:39,760
so like a one third pot bet roughly and it sets

307
00:11:39,760 --> 00:11:42,200
up a river shove of about half pot.

308
00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:46,740
So pretty well-planned out hand from Simon here other than the

309
00:11:46,740 --> 00:11:48,880
check raise on the flop in general because the ten nine

310
00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:51,690
of hearts shouldn't really be check raising but once you reach

311
00:11:51,690 --> 00:11:52,270
this turn,

312
00:11:52,270 --> 00:11:53,680
this is a really nice size,

313
00:11:53,680 --> 00:11:55,390
so well played on the turn here Simon.

314
00:11:56,350 --> 00:11:59,200
The button does call on the turn and we get the

315
00:11:59,200 --> 00:12:01,210
brickiest of all brick rivers,

316
00:12:01,210 --> 00:12:02,070
the two of clubs.

317
00:12:02,070 --> 00:12:07,990
So the final board is Q86K2 with three diamonds.

318
00:12:08,350 --> 00:12:12,570
There's about $125 in the pot and Simon has $67 behind.

319
00:12:12,570 --> 00:12:15,310
Are you shoving it in here as a bluff with this

320
00:12:15,310 --> 00:12:16,200
ten high Gary?

321
00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:17,230
Gary: Alright,

322
00:12:17,230 --> 00:12:19,970
I think we need to take a second here and break

323
00:12:19,970 --> 00:12:21,680
down our opponent's range.

324
00:12:21,680 --> 00:12:25,010
We have check raised the flop and they have called that

325
00:12:25,010 --> 00:12:27,520
eliminates a lot of air from their range.

326
00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:31,520
We have barreled this flush completing turn and they have called

327
00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:34,400
again. The point I'm making is that range is relatively strong

328
00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:36,910
once they call our flop raise and call our turn bet.

329
00:12:37,420 --> 00:12:40,210
So I like the turn bet with that equity but once

330
00:12:40,210 --> 00:12:43,610
called, I think we really want to have a diamond blocker

331
00:12:43,610 --> 00:12:45,310
in our bluffing range here.

332
00:12:45,700 --> 00:12:48,610
As mentioned they are very few and far between but there

333
00:12:48,610 --> 00:12:51,330
are some hands in there so a hand like pocket nines

334
00:12:51,330 --> 00:12:52,630
is fine to turn into a bluff.

335
00:12:52,900 --> 00:12:54,150
If we've got the diamonds,

336
00:12:54,150 --> 00:12:55,690
we've got those fives and fours.

337
00:12:55,690 --> 00:12:57,750
You think about pocket fives with a diamond,

338
00:12:57,750 --> 00:12:59,080
blocks ace five of diamonds,

339
00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:00,860
pocket fours blocks ace four of diamonds,

340
00:13:00,860 --> 00:13:02,380
pocket nines with a diamond blocks,

341
00:13:02,590 --> 00:13:03,520
ten nine jack nine,

342
00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:07,200
king nine and so on our hand doesn't really block anything.

343
00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:10,510
If anything our hand blocks folds in the form of pocket

344
00:13:10,510 --> 00:13:13,800
tens with a diamond and pocket nines with a diamond because

345
00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:15,460
we block pocket tens and pocket nines.

346
00:13:15,850 --> 00:13:17,270
It might be easy to think to yourself,

347
00:13:17,270 --> 00:13:18,190
well I've come this far,

348
00:13:18,190 --> 00:13:20,230
I'm just going to go all in and hope for the

349
00:13:20,230 --> 00:13:22,550
best. I think we really want to focus on having a

350
00:13:22,550 --> 00:13:23,680
diamond blocker here.

351
00:13:23,680 --> 00:13:26,770
We want to block our opponents calling range and unblock our

352
00:13:26,770 --> 00:13:28,260
opponent's folding range.

353
00:13:28,260 --> 00:13:30,100
So I don't love this river jam.

354
00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:34,450
It's very tough to find those combos that can shove the

355
00:13:34,450 --> 00:13:35,350
river here,

356
00:13:35,350 --> 00:13:36,370
but they are there,

357
00:13:36,370 --> 00:13:39,200
they do exist and it's really important that we have the

358
00:13:39,200 --> 00:13:41,970
strength as poker players to make this play of check raise

359
00:13:41,970 --> 00:13:45,300
flop, bet turn and have the discipline to not just go

360
00:13:45,300 --> 00:13:46,840
ahead and shove the river.

361
00:13:47,140 --> 00:13:50,010
We have to sometimes just wave the white flag and check

362
00:13:50,010 --> 00:13:53,040
fold and I think this would be one of those spots.

363
00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:56,170
Mike: It's getting into very nerdy territory,

364
00:13:56,170 --> 00:13:59,620
but this is really important if you want to play poker

365
00:13:59,620 --> 00:14:01,040
at a super high level,

366
00:14:01,040 --> 00:14:05,190
there's this concept that I heard Nick Petrangelo use this term

367
00:14:05,190 --> 00:14:06,920
of manufacturing bluffs,

368
00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:09,420
in poker you can't manufacture value.

369
00:14:09,420 --> 00:14:12,720
In a situation you get into the value hands you have

370
00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:16,230
are the value hands that you would have played that way

371
00:14:16,230 --> 00:14:18,190
up until that point in the hand,

372
00:14:18,190 --> 00:14:20,200
right? But what the solver does,

373
00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:23,010
what we've learned from solvers over the last six or so

374
00:14:23,010 --> 00:14:25,960
years is that they occasionally will check raise the flop and

375
00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:29,280
barrel the turn with certain hands like these pocket fives with

376
00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:31,480
a diamond that Gary is talking about,

377
00:14:31,870 --> 00:14:37,020
hands that really seem potentially counterintuitive but it allows you to

378
00:14:37,020 --> 00:14:40,550
have bluffs in all of these different situations so you're not

379
00:14:40,550 --> 00:14:43,930
just always shoving this river with value and nothing else.

380
00:14:43,930 --> 00:14:47,080
The solver will mix in these hands like pocket fives with

381
00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:47,680
a diamond,

382
00:14:47,690 --> 00:14:50,600
which you might think I would never check raise pocket fives

383
00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:52,880
with a diamond on queen eight six with two diamonds,

384
00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:53,990
right? I have an under pair,

385
00:14:53,990 --> 00:14:56,990
I'm just going to fold but the solver likes to mix

386
00:14:56,990 --> 00:14:59,530
them in some of the time and a big reason it

387
00:14:59,530 --> 00:15:02,310
does that is so it's able to bluff this turn and

388
00:15:02,310 --> 00:15:05,590
then efficiently bluff this river and that's what playing poker at

389
00:15:05,590 --> 00:15:06,050
a really,

390
00:15:06,060 --> 00:15:07,420
really high level,

391
00:15:07,420 --> 00:15:09,980
especially online is about in 2023.

392
00:15:09,980 --> 00:15:11,600
Listen, if you play live,

393
00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:13,680
I know you might even be rolling your eyes thinking I'm

394
00:15:13,680 --> 00:15:14,660
never going to do this stuff.

395
00:15:14,660 --> 00:15:17,090
You guys are talking about things that are not even relevant

396
00:15:17,090 --> 00:15:17,630
for my games.

397
00:15:17,630 --> 00:15:18,410
And you might be right,

398
00:15:18,410 --> 00:15:20,860
you may never have to make plays like this in your

399
00:15:20,860 --> 00:15:21,590
1/3 live game,

400
00:15:21,590 --> 00:15:25,380
but that said it is really useful still to internalize the

401
00:15:25,380 --> 00:15:29,260
mechanics behind these plays and understand why they're happening because you

402
00:15:29,260 --> 00:15:32,620
might be able to find similar stuff in your live games

403
00:15:32,620 --> 00:15:37,050
that maybe you're not finding this fancy triple barrel bluff with

404
00:15:37,050 --> 00:15:40,360
the fives against the random 1/3 player you're playing against,

405
00:15:40,430 --> 00:15:43,720
but maybe you find another situation where a similar mechanic is

406
00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:46,170
at play and you're able to find a very cool bluff

407
00:15:46,170 --> 00:15:48,800
that works sufficiently against your opponent.

408
00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:50,390
So let's look at the results.

409
00:15:50,390 --> 00:15:53,760
Simon does go all in for 67 into 125.

410
00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:54,920
Once again,

411
00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:58,290
I do want to compliment Simon's sizing scheme here because he

412
00:15:58,290 --> 00:16:01,040
really did set up a good sizing on the flop,

413
00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:03,580
nice bet size on the turn and then a nice half

414
00:16:03,580 --> 00:16:04,790
pot shove on the river.

415
00:16:04,820 --> 00:16:05,840
So overall sizing,

416
00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:06,410
very good,

417
00:16:06,530 --> 00:16:10,710
hand selection just a little off and his opponent does call

418
00:16:10,710 --> 00:16:12,830
with king eight of hearts.

419
00:16:12,860 --> 00:16:15,130
So his opponent had three bet pre flop with king eight

420
00:16:15,130 --> 00:16:15,590
of hearts,

421
00:16:15,860 --> 00:16:17,720
which is a fine play at some frequency,

422
00:16:17,900 --> 00:16:20,510
flopped middle pair c-bet big on the flop,

423
00:16:20,510 --> 00:16:22,650
which is a very odd decision to c-bet big with that

424
00:16:22,650 --> 00:16:23,540
hand in particular.

425
00:16:23,540 --> 00:16:26,280
I think this player that Simon was up against just doesn't

426
00:16:26,280 --> 00:16:29,070
have their sizing strategy down quite well enough.

427
00:16:29,070 --> 00:16:31,130
Then he called Simon's check raise,

428
00:16:31,130 --> 00:16:32,150
which is understandable,

429
00:16:32,180 --> 00:16:35,140
turned two pair and at that point is never really going

430
00:16:35,140 --> 00:16:35,600
to fold.

431
00:16:35,610 --> 00:16:38,820
I'm sure he wasn't loving life on the three diamond board

432
00:16:38,820 --> 00:16:40,580
but far too strong of a hand to fold.

433
00:16:40,580 --> 00:16:41,780
Would you agree Gary?

434
00:16:41,780 --> 00:16:42,510
Gary: Yeah,

435
00:16:42,510 --> 00:16:44,710
I think you just shut your eyes and call.

436
00:16:44,710 --> 00:16:47,180
I would kind of expect to not win that much but

437
00:16:47,180 --> 00:16:48,710
our hand is just too strong.

438
00:16:48,710 --> 00:16:51,570
We've got to just call and see what our opponent has.

439
00:16:51,570 --> 00:16:52,310
Mike: Yeah,

440
00:16:52,310 --> 00:16:53,500
totally makes sense.

441
00:16:53,500 --> 00:16:56,040
So that was our first hand from Simon and as you

442
00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:58,430
probably noticed it was pretty technical.

443
00:16:58,430 --> 00:16:59,230
It was online,

444
00:16:59,230 --> 00:17:00,900
we were talking about ranges,

445
00:17:00,900 --> 00:17:01,880
we pulled up a solver,

446
00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:04,700
all that nerdy stuff that you may or may not like.

447
00:17:05,180 --> 00:17:07,820
These next two hands that we're going to cover are not

448
00:17:07,820 --> 00:17:08,660
like that at all.

449
00:17:08,660 --> 00:17:09,680
If you play live poker,

450
00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:10,910
you are going to love these.

451
00:17:11,100 --> 00:17:14,930
This is some straight up jungle shit.

452
00:17:15,410 --> 00:17:17,000
Hand two was played by Sam,

453
00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:18,230
another Lab member.

454
00:17:18,260 --> 00:17:21,890
He's playing $2/$5 live cash and the stacks are deep,

455
00:17:21,980 --> 00:17:23,790
$2,500 effective,

456
00:17:23,790 --> 00:17:25,940
that's 500 big blinds.

457
00:17:26,240 --> 00:17:30,190
A keynote in this hand is that a King was exposed

458
00:17:30,190 --> 00:17:33,790
and mucked pre-flop to the player on the button so we

459
00:17:33,790 --> 00:17:35,900
know that one of the Kings is dead,

460
00:17:35,900 --> 00:17:40,700
a very live poker specific dynamic here with a King being

461
00:17:40,700 --> 00:17:43,440
dead and everyone at the table knowing it and it's going

462
00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:44,510
to get very relevant.

463
00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:46,610
Just wait until you hear what this flop is.

464
00:17:47,030 --> 00:17:50,040
So under the gun one raises to $15,

465
00:17:50,310 --> 00:17:53,810
the button three bets to $60 and then Sam has pocket

466
00:17:53,810 --> 00:17:55,490
eights in one of the blinds.

467
00:17:55,490 --> 00:17:57,270
He didn't specify small blind or big blind,

468
00:17:57,480 --> 00:17:59,170
but it's basically the same thing.

469
00:17:59,170 --> 00:18:02,190
Gary, what are you doing with the pocket eights here,

470
00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:04,670
especially considering stacks are so deep,

471
00:18:04,670 --> 00:18:06,090
I assume with $500 stacks,

472
00:18:06,090 --> 00:18:06,980
a hundred big blinds,

473
00:18:06,980 --> 00:18:08,760
we're just always folding the eights here,

474
00:18:08,770 --> 00:18:12,140
but do things change when stacks are much deeper like this?

475
00:18:12,140 --> 00:18:13,190
What do you think?

476
00:18:13,190 --> 00:18:15,020
Gary: I would still just fold.

477
00:18:15,020 --> 00:18:17,690
It's kind of a boring answer and a lot of people

478
00:18:17,690 --> 00:18:19,510
are not going to want to hear it,

479
00:18:19,510 --> 00:18:21,830
but I think I just go ahead and fold this.

480
00:18:21,830 --> 00:18:22,600
We're $2,500

481
00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:25,970
effective, I just don't envisage winning a lot of money by

482
00:18:25,970 --> 00:18:28,920
continuing with this hand in the form of a cold call

483
00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:29,550
or a four bet.

484
00:18:29,550 --> 00:18:33,250
We've got to remember that UTG+1 is raised,

485
00:18:33,250 --> 00:18:35,430
I'm assuming this is either 8-max or 9-max.

486
00:18:35,730 --> 00:18:38,940
That's a pretty strong range and then the button has three

487
00:18:38,940 --> 00:18:40,910
bet into that pretty strong range.

488
00:18:41,610 --> 00:18:46,030
We don't want to cold four bet with a middling marginal

489
00:18:46,030 --> 00:18:47,260
meh pocket pair,

490
00:18:47,260 --> 00:18:48,380
out of position,

491
00:18:48,380 --> 00:18:50,460
super deep into a strong range.

492
00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:51,780
It's boring,

493
00:18:51,780 --> 00:18:54,310
it's nitty but the right answer here is to just go

494
00:18:54,310 --> 00:18:55,580
ahead and fold I think.

495
00:18:55,580 --> 00:18:56,580
What do you think,

496
00:18:56,580 --> 00:18:57,650
Mike? Mike: Yeah,

497
00:18:57,650 --> 00:19:00,460
I'm folding this unless I have a read that under the

498
00:19:00,460 --> 00:19:03,530
gun one is super loose and splashy and terrible and then

499
00:19:03,530 --> 00:19:06,730
the button is also loose and splashy and terrible and then

500
00:19:06,730 --> 00:19:09,070
maybe I flick in the call and just try to hit

501
00:19:09,070 --> 00:19:11,740
an eight and win a huge pot if they're allowing me

502
00:19:11,740 --> 00:19:14,310
to over realize equity when I do hit an eight,

503
00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:17,870
but I would need a lot of information to consider putting

504
00:19:17,870 --> 00:19:19,790
in money here with the pocket eights.

505
00:19:19,790 --> 00:19:20,580
I'm just folding.

506
00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:24,190
I think there's even some element of when you're this deep

507
00:19:24,190 --> 00:19:26,820
reverse implied odds when you do hit a set,

508
00:19:27,120 --> 00:19:30,720
when the flop comes Queen Jack Eight and a bunch of

509
00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:32,300
money goes in $2,500

510
00:19:32,300 --> 00:19:33,840
goes in post flop,

511
00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:37,480
you're going to be up against pocket queens or pocket jacks

512
00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:39,410
a pretty chunky percent of the time.

513
00:19:39,410 --> 00:19:41,850
So I don't even think hitting a set is like your

514
00:19:41,850 --> 00:19:42,820
gin necessarily.

515
00:19:42,820 --> 00:19:45,780
You might actually run into some very nasty scenarios.

516
00:19:45,780 --> 00:19:47,900
So I think we just fold get out of the way.

517
00:19:47,900 --> 00:19:49,310
Let these two guys battle.

518
00:19:49,310 --> 00:19:50,540
We're out of position,

519
00:19:50,540 --> 00:19:52,080
we don't need to hop in there.

520
00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:54,520
Gary: One thing I want to quickly add is that I

521
00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:57,460
really don't think cold calling is the right play here.

522
00:19:57,460 --> 00:20:00,330
It's really important we don't have cold call ranges.

523
00:20:00,330 --> 00:20:02,570
There are some instances where it's okay,

524
00:20:02,570 --> 00:20:04,100
particularly in live poker.

525
00:20:04,100 --> 00:20:05,890
I think there are some instances,

526
00:20:05,890 --> 00:20:07,740
but this for sure is not one of them.

527
00:20:07,740 --> 00:20:09,140
I think just being a solid,

528
00:20:09,140 --> 00:20:12,200
disciplined good player here and just letting it go is the

529
00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:12,840
right play.

530
00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:13,540
Mike: Yeah,

531
00:20:13,540 --> 00:20:17,090
oftentimes the sort of boring play is the good and correct

532
00:20:17,090 --> 00:20:19,630
one in poker we don't love it either,

533
00:20:19,630 --> 00:20:20,760
but it just is the case.

534
00:20:21,360 --> 00:20:23,180
Obviously if we're showing you this hand,

535
00:20:23,180 --> 00:20:24,120
Sam did not just fold,

536
00:20:24,150 --> 00:20:25,200
that would be pretty boring.

537
00:20:25,530 --> 00:20:28,910
Sam does decide to go for a pretty savage four bet

538
00:20:28,910 --> 00:20:32,220
to $200 with the pocket eights and both players call.

539
00:20:32,220 --> 00:20:35,000
So now we're playing out of position in a very bloated

540
00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:38,920
pot, very deep with our pocket eights and the flop comes

541
00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:40,040
King King Jack,

542
00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:42,090
rainbow. Sam is first to act.

543
00:20:42,090 --> 00:20:43,800
There's $600 in the pot.

544
00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:45,690
These players have $2,300

545
00:20:45,690 --> 00:20:46,630
behind each,

546
00:20:46,630 --> 00:20:50,140
so still a pretty solidly deep stack to pot ratio.

547
00:20:50,140 --> 00:20:53,820
Gary, what are you doing on this flop as the pre-flop

548
00:20:53,820 --> 00:20:54,760
four better?

549
00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:58,100
Gary: There's just so much going on right now.

550
00:20:58,100 --> 00:21:01,440
First of all the open and then the calling of the

551
00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:03,980
cold four bet and then the other guy calling,

552
00:21:03,980 --> 00:21:04,950
the mucked king,

553
00:21:04,950 --> 00:21:05,920
the deep stacks.

554
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:09,070
This is just an absolute jungle hand and I absolutely love

555
00:21:09,070 --> 00:21:10,120
it. I'm here for it.

556
00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:11,710
Okay, let's break it down.

557
00:21:11,890 --> 00:21:14,190
So I'm really not loving life here with my pair of

558
00:21:14,190 --> 00:21:15,400
eights on King King Jack.

559
00:21:15,430 --> 00:21:17,560
Yes, there has been a king folded,

560
00:21:17,620 --> 00:21:19,900
which is obviously a benefit to us because it's less likely

561
00:21:19,900 --> 00:21:22,130
either of these players have a king and this is in

562
00:21:22,130 --> 00:21:24,560
theory a relatively decent board for our range.

563
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:27,480
But then again in theory people don't cold call cold four

564
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:29,680
bets, so that kind of negates that factor.

565
00:21:29,830 --> 00:21:33,300
I think I just check we can have some hands like

566
00:21:33,300 --> 00:21:34,120
Ace Queen,

567
00:21:34,420 --> 00:21:38,180
maybe Ace Ten with the backdoor flush draws that have better

568
00:21:38,180 --> 00:21:40,780
blockers. I think I just lean towards check.

569
00:21:40,780 --> 00:21:43,120
If we're heads up I would love to c-bet this board.

570
00:21:43,120 --> 00:21:45,130
I would probably see bit my entire range,

571
00:21:45,130 --> 00:21:47,960
but when you factor in that cold call that really concerns

572
00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:49,720
me. I think I start with a check here.

573
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:50,370
Mike: Yeah,

574
00:21:50,370 --> 00:21:51,250
that makes sense.

575
00:21:51,250 --> 00:21:53,550
I mean under the gun raised to $15 faced a pretty

576
00:21:53,550 --> 00:21:54,910
big three bet $60 three bet,

577
00:21:54,910 --> 00:21:56,680
although granted with deep stacks,

578
00:21:56,680 --> 00:21:59,300
that is a good three bet size adjustment and then now

579
00:21:59,300 --> 00:22:01,300
he's facing a cold four bet out of the blinds,

580
00:22:01,300 --> 00:22:02,110
which should be a super,

581
00:22:02,110 --> 00:22:04,330
super strong range and then he just calls,

582
00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:08,270
I'm going to range under the gun one here as having

583
00:22:08,270 --> 00:22:09,280
hands like TT+.

584
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:11,600
I think maybe they get in there with nines or something

585
00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:12,760
if they're a little loose,

586
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:14,200
but I think it's going to be tens,

587
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:14,890
jacks, queens.

588
00:22:14,890 --> 00:22:17,810
I think even kings and maybe even Aces are going to

589
00:22:17,810 --> 00:22:19,090
just call sometimes.

590
00:22:19,570 --> 00:22:20,970
Aces may put in the five bit,

591
00:22:20,970 --> 00:22:21,940
but put that aside.

592
00:22:22,150 --> 00:22:25,160
I think Ace King is a very possible hand for UTG+1,

593
00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:26,770
maybe an Ace Queen suited,

594
00:22:27,370 --> 00:22:30,080
but I don't think it's going to be much looser than

595
00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:33,420
that. I think that's pretty much what we're looking at when

596
00:22:33,420 --> 00:22:38,130
we're considering our opponent's range talking about UTG+1 player.

597
00:22:38,130 --> 00:22:39,760
So with that said,

598
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:42,250
I don't really think a c-bet is going to get through.

599
00:22:42,250 --> 00:22:44,470
I think we'll get pocket tens specifically to fold.

600
00:22:46,150 --> 00:22:49,010
Ace Queen suited I don't think is going to fold really

601
00:22:49,010 --> 00:22:50,440
not much is going to fold,

602
00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:52,560
so I think we just check this flop,

603
00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:54,680
right? Even though we know a king is dead,

604
00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:56,650
I don't think that necessarily means okay,

605
00:22:56,650 --> 00:22:59,730
we can attack this board way more because our opponents also

606
00:22:59,730 --> 00:23:01,670
know we are less likely to have a king.

607
00:23:01,670 --> 00:23:04,680
So that all just makes me think another boring answer just

608
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:05,940
to clear check and fold,

609
00:23:05,940 --> 00:23:08,630
maybe hope it checks around and try to turn an eight.

610
00:23:08,630 --> 00:23:10,510
That's kind of my hope at this point.

611
00:23:10,510 --> 00:23:11,200
Gary: Yeah,

612
00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:12,330
I think you're right.

613
00:23:12,330 --> 00:23:14,710
Again, I want to reiterate the point heads up.

614
00:23:14,710 --> 00:23:16,470
This is a really good board for us.

615
00:23:16,470 --> 00:23:17,950
I'm really happy to c-bet here,

616
00:23:17,950 --> 00:23:20,710
but when we factor in this cold calling of our cold

617
00:23:20,710 --> 00:23:21,250
four bet,

618
00:23:21,700 --> 00:23:22,780
that's going to change things a lot.

619
00:23:22,780 --> 00:23:25,540
We want to really focus on having higher equity bluffs here.

620
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:26,980
We don't have Queen Ten,

621
00:23:26,980 --> 00:23:28,570
we're not going to cold four bet that.

622
00:23:28,570 --> 00:23:30,760
So we're really just looking at Ace Queen,

623
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:33,800
Ace Ten as our bluffs here and our value range is

624
00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:35,920
going to be very straightforward as well.

625
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:36,920
We've got some King X,

626
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:38,250
we've got some pocket jacks,

627
00:23:38,250 --> 00:23:39,910
pocket Aces I would probably c-bet,

628
00:23:39,910 --> 00:23:41,130
because we block Ace King,

629
00:23:41,130 --> 00:23:42,350
pocket Queens not so much.

630
00:23:42,350 --> 00:23:44,010
We don't have a King X blocker there.

631
00:23:44,010 --> 00:23:44,450
But yeah,

632
00:23:44,450 --> 00:23:45,950
really narrow c-bet range here.

633
00:23:45,950 --> 00:23:48,500
But then again our range is supposed to be really narrow

634
00:23:48,500 --> 00:23:50,160
anyway, so it kind of fits in nicely.

635
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:50,770
Mike: Yeah,

636
00:23:50,770 --> 00:23:51,220
for sure.

637
00:23:51,220 --> 00:23:53,460
Although in this case our range is not so narrow because

638
00:23:53,460 --> 00:23:54,140
we've got the eights,

639
00:23:54,150 --> 00:23:57,010
so who knows how savage Sam is getting pre flop here.

640
00:23:57,010 --> 00:23:57,680
In any case,

641
00:23:57,690 --> 00:23:59,520
the savagery continues,

642
00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:01,170
Sam goes for a $100 bet,

643
00:24:01,170 --> 00:24:02,210
one sixth pot.

644
00:24:02,220 --> 00:24:04,640
I think that is a pretty reasonable size multi-way.

645
00:24:05,180 --> 00:24:07,310
You can go smaller multi-way in general,

646
00:24:08,180 --> 00:24:09,680
I'm kind of just speaking from intuition.

647
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:12,080
I don't have any way to verify the right size on

648
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:12,710
this board,

649
00:24:12,710 --> 00:24:15,320
but I think this just does seem pretty reasonable to me.

650
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:17,210
Maybe a little bit bigger would be better.

651
00:24:17,210 --> 00:24:17,720
In any case,

652
00:24:17,730 --> 00:24:21,620
he does go a hundred and UTG+1 calls and the button

653
00:24:21,620 --> 00:24:24,510
folds, so we are going heads up to the turn King

654
00:24:24,510 --> 00:24:27,170
King Jack was the flop and the turn is the nine

655
00:24:27,170 --> 00:24:30,260
of hearts which completes a full rainbow on the board.

656
00:24:30,260 --> 00:24:32,290
There are no flush draws,

657
00:24:32,290 --> 00:24:34,190
so now there's $800 in there.

658
00:24:34,190 --> 00:24:37,940
Gary, how are you playing this turn with your overall range?

659
00:24:37,940 --> 00:24:41,310
What are you going to continue betting with and how big

660
00:24:41,310 --> 00:24:42,580
are you going to bet?

661
00:24:42,580 --> 00:24:43,400
Gary: Okay,

662
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:47,000
so I think I would construct my bluffing range here around

663
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:49,920
having equity and slash or blockers Ace Queen,

664
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:50,440
Ace Ten.

665
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:53,290
It's the same as the flop to be honest with you.

666
00:24:53,290 --> 00:24:56,290
Our cold four bet range is really quite narrow and these

667
00:24:56,290 --> 00:24:58,220
are the only equity bluffs that we have here.

668
00:24:58,220 --> 00:25:00,230
These are the only blockers that we have here.

669
00:25:00,530 --> 00:25:03,200
So pocket eights wouldn't be a barrel for me on the

670
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:06,370
turn. I would really just really want to have some equity

671
00:25:06,370 --> 00:25:07,370
or blockers here.

672
00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:10,410
Our opponent has called our cold four bet and then called

673
00:25:10,410 --> 00:25:11,240
our c-bet here.

674
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:13,760
His range is really strong on this texture.

675
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:14,900
We want to have equity,

676
00:25:14,900 --> 00:25:16,830
we want to have some blockers going on.

677
00:25:16,830 --> 00:25:17,380
Ace Queen,

678
00:25:17,380 --> 00:25:18,700
Ace Ten would be my bluffs.

679
00:25:18,700 --> 00:25:19,610
And as mentioned,

680
00:25:19,610 --> 00:25:21,660
our value range is really quite obvious.

681
00:25:21,660 --> 00:25:25,040
Mike: So basically the exact same flop betting range just carried

682
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:25,880
over to the turn.

683
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:27,690
We're going to continue barreling.

684
00:25:27,690 --> 00:25:29,990
And did you say what size you'd go for into this

685
00:25:29,990 --> 00:25:30,470
$800 pot?

686
00:25:30,470 --> 00:25:32,760
Gary: I think I would be setting up for a river

687
00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:35,520
jam, so I'm not quite sure what the SPR is here.

688
00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:38,070
I would imagine there's like 2200 behind,

689
00:25:38,070 --> 00:25:39,670
so the SPR is almost three,

690
00:25:39,670 --> 00:25:41,490
so something around half pot,

691
00:25:41,490 --> 00:25:44,330
there's going to be 1600 in the middle and we can

692
00:25:44,330 --> 00:25:46,360
shove for around pot if we want to.

693
00:25:46,360 --> 00:25:47,240
So $400-$500,

694
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:50,440
something like that would be good in my opinion here.

695
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,420
Mike: Sam does go for about that size here he goes

696
00:25:53,420 --> 00:25:57,430
for $550 into $800 with his pocket eights so roughly the

697
00:25:57,430 --> 00:25:58,280
right size.

698
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:01,200
We've already harped on his hand selection here being quite a

699
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:03,300
bit too loose pre flop and on the flop.

700
00:26:03,300 --> 00:26:04,340
But in any case,

701
00:26:04,460 --> 00:26:08,290
we are now going into the river with about $1,900

702
00:26:08,290 --> 00:26:11,000
in the pot and Sam has $1,650

703
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:14,150
behind and the river is a second nine.

704
00:26:14,150 --> 00:26:15,950
So we have a double paired board here,

705
00:26:19,130 --> 00:26:21,980
KKJ99. And to recap the action one more time,

706
00:26:21,980 --> 00:26:23,450
Sam four bet pre-flop,

707
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:24,670
bet the flop,

708
00:26:24,950 --> 00:26:27,540
bet the turn and is now heads up on the river

709
00:26:27,540 --> 00:26:32,110
against UTG+1 who originally raised and then cold called a four

710
00:26:32,110 --> 00:26:32,990
bet. Gary,

711
00:26:33,020 --> 00:26:35,900
what do you think now that we've gotten to this point

712
00:26:35,900 --> 00:26:38,800
with pocket eights a hand that is playing the board,

713
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:39,740
we can never win.

714
00:26:40,730 --> 00:26:42,960
Do you think we have to shove it in if we

715
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:44,490
get here with this hand?

716
00:26:44,490 --> 00:26:45,180
Gary: No,

717
00:26:45,180 --> 00:26:48,550
just give up please just wave the white flag already.

718
00:26:48,550 --> 00:26:51,390
I don't think shoving here would be the best.

719
00:26:51,390 --> 00:26:55,060
It's so weird with this mucked king pre-flop and the whole

720
00:26:55,060 --> 00:26:57,050
metagame and things like that,

721
00:26:57,050 --> 00:26:58,050
but once again,

722
00:26:58,050 --> 00:27:00,420
the strength of our opponents range,

723
00:27:00,420 --> 00:27:03,340
what can he have that will fold the river here?

724
00:27:03,340 --> 00:27:04,180
Pocket tens,

725
00:27:04,180 --> 00:27:06,840
pocket queens maybe if he's got jacks,

726
00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:08,690
nobody's folding jacks here.

727
00:27:08,690 --> 00:27:10,920
Yes, he's been counterfeited but he's just going to rage call.

728
00:27:11,130 --> 00:27:14,290
We've all seen it in live poker or somebody's just rage

729
00:27:14,290 --> 00:27:17,580
calls with Aces on Queen Jack Ten Nine because they've got

730
00:27:17,580 --> 00:27:19,950
Aces. He is not folding pocket jacks here.

731
00:27:20,100 --> 00:27:21,550
He can still have a king.

732
00:27:21,550 --> 00:27:22,490
There are very,

733
00:27:22,490 --> 00:27:23,430
very few hands.

734
00:27:23,430 --> 00:27:24,600
The board is pure rainbow.

735
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:26,790
He doesn't have a hand like ace queen with a turned

736
00:27:26,790 --> 00:27:27,460
flush draw.

737
00:27:27,460 --> 00:27:30,180
There are so few hands that are going to fold here.

738
00:27:30,180 --> 00:27:33,310
Our opponent has shown a lot of strength and people don't

739
00:27:33,310 --> 00:27:34,780
like to fold in live poker.

740
00:27:34,780 --> 00:27:37,370
I think I would just wave the white flag here and

741
00:27:37,370 --> 00:27:37,840
give up.

742
00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:38,570
Mike: Yeah,

743
00:27:38,570 --> 00:27:42,230
I wouldn't even expect him to fold especially wouldn't expect him

744
00:27:42,230 --> 00:27:45,290
to fold pocket jacks given that a king has been exposed.

745
00:27:45,290 --> 00:27:45,930
I mean yeah,

746
00:27:45,940 --> 00:27:48,430
his full house has sort of been counterfeited now any king

747
00:27:48,430 --> 00:27:48,900
beats him,

748
00:27:48,900 --> 00:27:51,500
but how worried about that can you really be when a

749
00:27:51,500 --> 00:27:54,680
king was exposed pre-flop you would just have to call.

750
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:56,120
So we're never getting him off that,

751
00:27:56,120 --> 00:27:56,700
like you said,

752
00:27:56,700 --> 00:27:59,780
I think if he has queens or tens that called the

753
00:27:59,780 --> 00:28:02,780
turn, I think we will get the fold from those hands

754
00:28:02,780 --> 00:28:05,150
and maybe those are a good chunk of his range.

755
00:28:05,150 --> 00:28:08,150
Gary: The only good thing going for us here is that

756
00:28:08,150 --> 00:28:08,940
as Mike says,

757
00:28:08,940 --> 00:28:12,020
he might fold queens and tens and we do unblock those

758
00:28:12,020 --> 00:28:14,880
hands, but still I think this is a bit ambitious.

759
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:18,380
Mike: To get back into super nerdy territory for a minute,

760
00:28:18,380 --> 00:28:20,380
I want to talk about this concept,

761
00:28:20,380 --> 00:28:24,310
this phenomenon that happens with people who study with solvers.

762
00:28:24,310 --> 00:28:27,870
Sometimes they'll use tools that essentially allow you to look up

763
00:28:27,870 --> 00:28:30,450
a strategy similar to what I was doing with Lucid earlier.

764
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:33,380
There's a bunch of tools out there where they have the

765
00:28:33,380 --> 00:28:36,300
preloaded solver work and then you can click through it and

766
00:28:36,300 --> 00:28:38,100
see how you should have played the hand.

767
00:28:38,460 --> 00:28:42,220
But there's a big problem with a lot of these tools

768
00:28:42,220 --> 00:28:47,880
where it's very easy to verify a play in particular a

769
00:28:47,890 --> 00:28:49,040
bluff and say,

770
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:50,760
oh it was a good bluff.

771
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:54,370
Because oftentimes when you get to the river with a hand

772
00:28:54,370 --> 00:28:55,080
like this,

773
00:28:55,140 --> 00:28:59,040
a low frequency hand that you should very rarely have but

774
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:01,030
has no chance of winning,

775
00:29:01,030 --> 00:29:05,100
the solver will bluff it every single time.

776
00:29:05,370 --> 00:29:08,950
It's this concept that I kind of mentioned earlier of manufacturing

777
00:29:08,950 --> 00:29:12,010
bluffs. So you can have the appropriate amount of bluffs when

778
00:29:12,010 --> 00:29:13,020
you get to the river,

779
00:29:13,020 --> 00:29:15,420
right? So if you look this one up in a solver,

780
00:29:15,660 --> 00:29:19,890
I bet pocket eights does technically four bet pre-flop like 0.001%

781
00:29:19,890 --> 00:29:20,690
of the time.

782
00:29:20,690 --> 00:29:23,160
That's kind of just how solvers work.

783
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:26,070
Where a hand will be in there an extremely,

784
00:29:26,070 --> 00:29:29,190
extremely small fraction of the time and then on the flop

785
00:29:29,190 --> 00:29:30,930
pocket eights will be a bet,

786
00:29:30,930 --> 00:29:34,040
maybe a very small fraction of the time we're talking under

787
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:35,360
a percent of the time even.

788
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:36,190
And then the turn,

789
00:29:36,190 --> 00:29:38,130
it bets the turn some fraction of the time.

790
00:29:38,340 --> 00:29:40,620
And then when all of that happens,

791
00:29:40,870 --> 00:29:44,530
when you somehow find yourself on this river with pocket eights,

792
00:29:44,950 --> 00:29:46,810
the solver will bluff it every time.

793
00:29:46,870 --> 00:29:51,130
The problem is I don't think that was Sam's strategy here.

794
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:53,950
If you're actually getting to the river with eights here,

795
00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:57,290
I don't think you actually did randomize your strategy and only

796
00:29:57,290 --> 00:30:00,070
four bet with the eights one in 300 times.

797
00:30:00,070 --> 00:30:03,090
I think Sam looked at the spot and was like,

798
00:30:03,090 --> 00:30:04,700
I'm going to four bet I'm going to mess with these

799
00:30:04,700 --> 00:30:06,130
guys. I'm going to play these pocket eights.

800
00:30:06,340 --> 00:30:09,820
He wasn't playing this very randomized strategy where he is just

801
00:30:09,820 --> 00:30:12,360
peppering it in there at a very small fraction like the

802
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:13,000
solver would.

803
00:30:13,330 --> 00:30:16,630
So I want to urge caution for those of you who

804
00:30:16,630 --> 00:30:18,350
use these lookup tools,

805
00:30:18,350 --> 00:30:20,380
there's a bunch of them out there.

806
00:30:20,380 --> 00:30:22,480
Be careful when you're verifying,

807
00:30:22,990 --> 00:30:24,370
"verifying" your plays,

808
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:28,530
especially when it comes to river and turn plays because sometimes

809
00:30:28,530 --> 00:30:31,660
that solver work that you're looking at can be very misleading

810
00:30:31,660 --> 00:30:34,000
and I don't want you to just think with every river

811
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:34,710
bluff you make,

812
00:30:34,710 --> 00:30:35,980
oh it was a good river bluff.

813
00:30:36,370 --> 00:30:38,740
This tool says I should be bluffing that hand every time.

814
00:30:39,010 --> 00:30:41,740
But did you have that hand at the same frequency that

815
00:30:41,740 --> 00:30:44,850
that tool had it on the turn and the flop and

816
00:30:44,850 --> 00:30:45,780
pre flop?

817
00:30:45,780 --> 00:30:46,480
If not,

818
00:30:46,750 --> 00:30:49,060
you're going to be bluffing way way too often.

819
00:30:49,070 --> 00:30:52,760
So I think in theory pocket eights should be bluffing here

820
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:54,580
a fraction of the time on the river,

821
00:30:54,580 --> 00:30:58,350
maybe even every time if you had that hyper mixed strategy

822
00:30:58,350 --> 00:30:59,970
on the earlier streets.

823
00:30:59,970 --> 00:31:03,470
But because I assume Sam is getting to this river too

824
00:31:03,470 --> 00:31:05,260
often with pocket eights,

825
00:31:05,260 --> 00:31:08,590
I think the right move is to maybe randomize a very

826
00:31:08,590 --> 00:31:12,250
low frequency all in like maybe you jam this river like

827
00:31:12,250 --> 00:31:14,210
10% of the time or something.

828
00:31:14,210 --> 00:31:17,780
Does that seem like a reasonable on the fly approach,

829
00:31:17,780 --> 00:31:19,900
Gary? Gary: So after all that,

830
00:31:19,900 --> 00:31:22,830
after everything we've just spoken about,

831
00:31:22,830 --> 00:31:24,550
completely agree with Mike by the way,

832
00:31:24,550 --> 00:31:29,020
that confirmation bias of using solvers to justify certain plays after

833
00:31:29,020 --> 00:31:30,730
everything we've just spoken about,

834
00:31:30,730 --> 00:31:32,110
I'm going to change my answer.

835
00:31:32,140 --> 00:31:33,850
I don't love the pre flop,

836
00:31:33,850 --> 00:31:35,070
flop or turn line,

837
00:31:35,070 --> 00:31:36,040
but as played,

838
00:31:36,670 --> 00:31:41,470
I don't mind betting the river and it's purely because two

839
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:44,830
reasons, one that exposed king is really important and two,

840
00:31:45,310 --> 00:31:49,570
our opponent has queens and tens and we unblock those hands.

841
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:52,070
If I wouldn't want to shove a hand like Ace Queen

842
00:31:52,070 --> 00:31:55,410
or Ace Ten because that blocks the hands we're trying to

843
00:31:55,410 --> 00:31:56,160
make fold.

844
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:58,090
When we're shoving rivers,

845
00:31:58,090 --> 00:32:00,850
we want to block value and unblock folds,

846
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:03,040
unblocking folds here is really important.

847
00:32:03,100 --> 00:32:06,480
So hands like queen or tens are our opponents main folds

848
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:08,240
here. So I think as played,

849
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:10,780
I know I originally said that I would just give up,

850
00:32:10,780 --> 00:32:12,330
but if you really think about it,

851
00:32:12,330 --> 00:32:14,290
we shouldn't be here with pocket eights,

852
00:32:14,290 --> 00:32:15,120
but if we are,

853
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:17,970
it is one of our better river bluffs because we unblock

854
00:32:17,970 --> 00:32:21,100
the hands that we're trying to make fold and really importantly

855
00:32:21,100 --> 00:32:23,990
that exposed king means it's less likely our opponent has a

856
00:32:23,990 --> 00:32:24,960
king in their range.

857
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:26,680
So I am going to change my answer,

858
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:30,220
Sam, I hope you shove the river here because I think

859
00:32:30,220 --> 00:32:33,370
it's one of our best shoves because we unblock the hands

860
00:32:33,370 --> 00:32:35,630
we're trying to make our opponent fold.

861
00:32:35,630 --> 00:32:39,470
Mike: It's always a really interesting discussion when you get to

862
00:32:39,470 --> 00:32:41,880
a point in a hand the river in this case with

863
00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:45,920
something you should never or extremely rarely have because it's kind

864
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:48,730
of hard to have a strategic discussion around it,

865
00:32:48,730 --> 00:32:49,970
right? Your gut said,

866
00:32:49,970 --> 00:32:52,370
I think when you had your original answer,

867
00:32:52,370 --> 00:32:52,920
your gut was like,

868
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:54,170
well we should never be here with eights.

869
00:32:54,170 --> 00:32:56,110
Let's just wave the white flag and not lose any more

870
00:32:56,110 --> 00:32:56,660
money, right?

871
00:32:56,690 --> 00:32:59,410
Because we've already dusted enough with these eights where we're playing

872
00:32:59,410 --> 00:33:00,030
too loose,

873
00:33:00,030 --> 00:33:02,410
but you kind of reconsidered like,

874
00:33:02,410 --> 00:33:04,130
oh actually on the river,

875
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:07,490
now that I'm thinking about how this range is composed,

876
00:33:07,490 --> 00:33:09,980
pocket eights is actually kind of the ideal bluffing hand.

877
00:33:09,980 --> 00:33:11,840
If you happen to find yourself here with eights,

878
00:33:12,230 --> 00:33:14,720
you got to bluff it and Sam does just that.

879
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,720
He jams the river for 1650 into 1900.

880
00:33:18,290 --> 00:33:21,470
And he forces the fold from pocket queens that a boy,

881
00:33:21,470 --> 00:33:23,370
Sam, if I was you,

882
00:33:23,370 --> 00:33:25,550
Sam, a hat's off because if I was you,

883
00:33:25,730 --> 00:33:28,430
I would've lost whatever my blind was in this hand.

884
00:33:28,430 --> 00:33:29,840
If I was in the small blind,

885
00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:31,060
I would've lost two bucks.

886
00:33:31,060 --> 00:33:32,660
I would've just folded the eights.

887
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:36,410
But instead Sam had the foresight to four bet pre,

888
00:33:36,410 --> 00:33:37,370
bet the flop,

889
00:33:37,550 --> 00:33:39,760
barrel the turn and shove the river and he won a

890
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:40,580
chunky pot here.

891
00:33:40,580 --> 00:33:42,970
He won like 900 or a thousand bucks.

892
00:33:42,970 --> 00:33:43,470
So Sam,

893
00:33:43,470 --> 00:33:44,540
hats off to you.

894
00:33:44,550 --> 00:33:45,800
That took a lot of stones.

895
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:49,880
I always like when lab members are airing on the side

896
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:51,170
of too aggressive,

897
00:33:51,290 --> 00:33:53,960
I think so many poker players out there are too passive.

898
00:33:54,170 --> 00:33:55,760
So it's really nice to see,

899
00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:59,170
even though I think you could make a strong argument that

900
00:33:59,170 --> 00:34:00,930
pre, flop and turn in this hand,

901
00:34:00,930 --> 00:34:02,770
we're pretty spewy from you Sam.

902
00:34:02,770 --> 00:34:03,800
I got to be honest,

903
00:34:03,830 --> 00:34:04,990
brutally honest,

904
00:34:04,990 --> 00:34:06,470
but once you got there,

905
00:34:06,500 --> 00:34:08,370
you got it through and you're airing on the side of

906
00:34:08,370 --> 00:34:10,140
aggression, which I think is the way to go.

907
00:34:10,140 --> 00:34:12,450
It's certainly what Doug recommends.

908
00:34:12,450 --> 00:34:13,820
Gary: Mike question.

909
00:34:13,820 --> 00:34:15,410
You play this hand the way.

910
00:34:15,410 --> 00:34:16,210
Sam plays it,

911
00:34:16,210 --> 00:34:17,510
your opponent folds.

912
00:34:17,510 --> 00:34:19,380
Do you show your pocket eights?

913
00:34:19,380 --> 00:34:20,830
Mike: I show one eight,

914
00:34:20,830 --> 00:34:22,130
got to show one eight.

915
00:34:22,130 --> 00:34:24,590
Gary: I windmill both across the table.

916
00:34:24,590 --> 00:34:26,320
That's what I do personally,

917
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:27,400
but. Mike: Yeah,

918
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:28,630
that's fair enough.

919
00:34:28,630 --> 00:34:31,300
Let us know what you would do in the comments.

920
00:34:31,300 --> 00:34:32,750
I hope you showed buddy.

921
00:34:32,750 --> 00:34:34,880
Yeah, I hope he showed two and let us know in

922
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:37,240
the comments what you would do if you got this bluff

923
00:34:37,240 --> 00:34:38,250
through on the river.

924
00:34:38,250 --> 00:34:40,390
Would you just slide it into the muck quietly?

925
00:34:40,390 --> 00:34:41,290
Would you show one?

926
00:34:41,290 --> 00:34:43,490
Would you show both Windmill it like Gary said,

927
00:34:43,490 --> 00:34:44,050
let us know.

928
00:34:44,050 --> 00:34:46,530
Gary: I feel like the people who would make this play

929
00:34:46,530 --> 00:34:47,430
would always show,

930
00:34:47,430 --> 00:34:49,640
I feel like the people who say I'm never going to

931
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:52,080
show are not the type of people to cold four bet

932
00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:53,940
the pocket eights and blast it off.

933
00:34:53,940 --> 00:34:56,570
So I think we already know our answer to be honest.

934
00:34:56,570 --> 00:34:57,270
Mike: Yeah,

935
00:34:57,270 --> 00:34:58,560
well let us know anyway,

936
00:34:58,560 --> 00:34:59,910
we'll take the comments.

937
00:34:59,910 --> 00:35:01,830
Alright, moving on to our last hand,

938
00:35:01,830 --> 00:35:02,860
hand number three,

939
00:35:02,860 --> 00:35:04,080
moving down in stakes.

940
00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:07,540
We're playing a $1/$3 live cash game with $290 effective stacks.

941
00:35:07,540 --> 00:35:09,670
This hand is still kind of in the jungle.

942
00:35:09,670 --> 00:35:11,420
Some stuff you don't see online,

943
00:35:11,420 --> 00:35:12,080
some limps,

944
00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:13,260
some big raise sizes,

945
00:35:13,260 --> 00:35:14,120
some donk bets,

946
00:35:14,570 --> 00:35:16,870
but it's not as in the jungle as the last one.

947
00:35:16,870 --> 00:35:18,020
It's tough to do that.

948
00:35:19,010 --> 00:35:21,880
So in this hand David is in the hijack with King

949
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:24,640
Queen with the king of hearts that king of hearts is

950
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:26,270
going to be very relevant in a moment.

951
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:30,510
UTG+1 limps and the action folds to David in the hijack.

952
00:35:30,510 --> 00:35:33,420
What are you doing with this king queen of hearts?

953
00:35:33,420 --> 00:35:35,410
Gary, you're obviously raising,

954
00:35:35,410 --> 00:35:37,050
what size are you making it?

955
00:35:37,050 --> 00:35:37,830
Gary: Okay,

956
00:35:37,830 --> 00:35:40,750
so we'll say a hundred big blinds effective here.

957
00:35:40,750 --> 00:35:43,940
I know that people tend to use massive isolates in live

958
00:35:43,940 --> 00:35:45,580
poker. I think I would go 15.

959
00:35:45,580 --> 00:35:46,650
What do you think,

960
00:35:46,650 --> 00:35:47,210
Mike? 15.

961
00:35:47,210 --> 00:35:48,210
A little too big,

962
00:35:48,210 --> 00:35:49,350
a little too small.

963
00:35:49,350 --> 00:35:52,710
Mike: If I know absolutely nothing about my opponent,

964
00:35:52,710 --> 00:35:53,850
I'm going 15 or 18.

965
00:35:53,850 --> 00:35:54,390
I think.

966
00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:57,610
My default size in $1/$3 it's usually like 12,

967
00:35:57,610 --> 00:35:59,190
so I would add one blind,

968
00:35:59,190 --> 00:36:02,000
but sometimes I make a 15 especially in later position.

969
00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:02,550
That said,

970
00:36:02,550 --> 00:36:06,530
I will oftentimes have information if I've seen that UTG+1 player

971
00:36:06,530 --> 00:36:08,310
limp and call a raise with a hand,

972
00:36:08,310 --> 00:36:09,600
like eight four offsuit,

973
00:36:09,610 --> 00:36:11,280
which I've seen stuff like that before.

974
00:36:11,460 --> 00:36:13,500
I think I would go for a much bigger size.

975
00:36:13,650 --> 00:36:15,550
I know he's going to just call with whatever and I

976
00:36:15,550 --> 00:36:18,030
want to put in more money against that super weak range,

977
00:36:18,030 --> 00:36:19,450
but if I don't know anything,

978
00:36:19,450 --> 00:36:22,410
yeah, I think in the neighborhood of 15 can't be too

979
00:36:22,410 --> 00:36:25,260
bad. David goes for 20.

980
00:36:25,270 --> 00:36:28,110
So on the bigger side maybe he did have some sort

981
00:36:28,110 --> 00:36:30,750
of read the button and the big blind call behind.

982
00:36:30,750 --> 00:36:33,210
So he's going to be playing against one player who has

983
00:36:33,210 --> 00:36:36,550
position and one player who he has position over and then

984
00:36:36,550 --> 00:36:38,100
ironically UTG+1 folds,

985
00:36:38,100 --> 00:36:41,150
I cannot imagine what that player had to limp face a

986
00:36:41,150 --> 00:36:43,230
raise two calls and then he folds,

987
00:36:43,230 --> 00:36:44,180
but who knows?

988
00:36:44,180 --> 00:36:45,930
That's live poker for you.

989
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:50,390
The flop is Queen Seven Three all hearts and we have

990
00:36:50,390 --> 00:36:51,370
the king queen,

991
00:36:51,370 --> 00:36:51,960
king of hearts,

992
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:52,380
so really,

993
00:36:52,380 --> 00:36:53,300
really nice flop for us.

994
00:36:53,300 --> 00:36:53,940
We have top pair,

995
00:36:53,940 --> 00:36:56,340
we have the second nut flush draw on this three heart

996
00:36:56,340 --> 00:36:59,010
board, but it gets a little dicey right away.

997
00:36:59,010 --> 00:37:02,850
The big blind leads for basically full pot,

998
00:37:02,860 --> 00:37:05,400
$55 into $60.

999
00:37:05,820 --> 00:37:08,160
We do have a player behind in the form of the

1000
00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:10,310
button who called our pre-flop raise.

1001
00:37:10,310 --> 00:37:12,720
Gary, what are you doing versus this lead?

1002
00:37:12,720 --> 00:37:14,700
Are you ever finding a raise or are you just calling

1003
00:37:14,700 --> 00:37:15,500
with this hand?

1004
00:37:15,500 --> 00:37:17,530
Gary: I think this is a very clear call.

1005
00:37:17,530 --> 00:37:19,120
We're loving life on this flop.

1006
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:20,110
We've got top pair,

1007
00:37:20,110 --> 00:37:23,060
we've got the second nut flush draw a relatively good flop

1008
00:37:23,060 --> 00:37:25,090
for us and then it all kind of turns on its

1009
00:37:25,090 --> 00:37:27,550
head a little bit when the big blind leads out for

1010
00:37:27,550 --> 00:37:28,350
a very big size.

1011
00:37:28,350 --> 00:37:30,680
Mike, do you think we can read into this size,

1012
00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:31,260
the lead?

1013
00:37:31,260 --> 00:37:33,860
Would it be different to if you see a $30 lead

1014
00:37:33,860 --> 00:37:35,230
here? Mike: For sure.

1015
00:37:35,230 --> 00:37:39,140
It's obviously just going off of intuition and kind of anecdotal

1016
00:37:39,140 --> 00:37:42,030
evidence and my experience playing live poker,

1017
00:37:42,030 --> 00:37:45,060
because this is not a play that's theory approved,

1018
00:37:45,060 --> 00:37:48,100
you're not supposed to lead as the big blind here on

1019
00:37:48,100 --> 00:37:48,820
this board.

1020
00:37:48,820 --> 00:37:51,780
So you kind of just have to use intuition and think

1021
00:37:51,780 --> 00:37:53,600
about human nature and think,

1022
00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:55,230
okay, a live $1/$3 player,

1023
00:37:55,590 --> 00:37:58,950
what type of hands are they seeing this flop and they're

1024
00:37:58,950 --> 00:38:02,730
choosing, I'm not going to check to the raiser I'm leading

1025
00:38:02,730 --> 00:38:03,810
out in my opinion,

1026
00:38:04,470 --> 00:38:05,840
and this is just an opinion,

1027
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:07,320
so take it with a grain of salt.

1028
00:38:08,130 --> 00:38:09,900
When I see the bigger lead here,

1029
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:13,230
I am quite fearful that I'm up against a low flush

1030
00:38:13,230 --> 00:38:16,210
that kind of wants protection and wants to pump the pot

1031
00:38:16,210 --> 00:38:16,870
up right away,

1032
00:38:16,870 --> 00:38:18,510
doesn't want to see it check around,

1033
00:38:18,720 --> 00:38:21,000
doesn't want to see a scary turn so they just go

1034
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:22,260
for a big chunky bet size.

1035
00:38:22,260 --> 00:38:23,440
Maybe they have pocket sevens,

1036
00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:24,840
maybe they have five floor of hearts,

1037
00:38:25,050 --> 00:38:26,130
something like that.

1038
00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:29,180
That's what I expect them to have when they go for

1039
00:38:29,180 --> 00:38:30,090
a $55 bet here.

1040
00:38:30,090 --> 00:38:32,200
I think it's a very strong range.

1041
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:34,080
If it was more like a $30 lead,

1042
00:38:34,090 --> 00:38:34,820
a $20 lead,

1043
00:38:34,820 --> 00:38:36,940
I think it could be a lot looser.

1044
00:38:36,940 --> 00:38:39,130
I think it's a similar idea where they don't want to

1045
00:38:39,130 --> 00:38:39,760
check around,

1046
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:40,990
they don't want to see a scare card,

1047
00:38:41,410 --> 00:38:43,580
but they're going to be doing it with a much wider

1048
00:38:43,580 --> 00:38:44,290
range of hands.

1049
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:47,590
I wouldn't be surprised to even see Queen Jack off suit,

1050
00:38:47,590 --> 00:38:50,370
no heart if they led into me for 20 or 30.

1051
00:38:50,370 --> 00:38:51,920
What do you think intuition wise?

1052
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:54,740
Gary: I completely agree with everything you've just said.

1053
00:38:54,740 --> 00:38:57,340
You can read into the strength of your opponent's hand by

1054
00:38:57,340 --> 00:38:58,550
the size that they choose.

1055
00:38:58,550 --> 00:39:01,540
There's going to be a massive difference in our opponent's range

1056
00:39:01,540 --> 00:39:03,530
here based off whether they lead $20 or $30,

1057
00:39:03,530 --> 00:39:06,180
which can absolutely have some weak one pair of hands with

1058
00:39:06,180 --> 00:39:08,140
no flush draw and a very big size like this.

1059
00:39:08,150 --> 00:39:11,680
It's important to remember the texture of the board here.

1060
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:13,820
So the big blind is not going to have too many

1061
00:39:13,820 --> 00:39:14,590
two pair hands.

1062
00:39:15,010 --> 00:39:18,280
It's obviously a lot different if they lead on Queen Jack

1063
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:20,440
Five or something like that or Queen Six Five,

1064
00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:21,220
something like that.

1065
00:39:21,220 --> 00:39:22,390
But they don't have seven three,

1066
00:39:22,450 --> 00:39:24,780
maybe we've got some queen three and queen seven suited type

1067
00:39:24,780 --> 00:39:27,470
hands, but not too many two pair combos and the big

1068
00:39:27,470 --> 00:39:28,960
size. I'm not loving life.

1069
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:32,080
I think this is very clearly just a call obviously never

1070
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:35,330
folding, but I think raising here would be a little dicey,

1071
00:39:35,330 --> 00:39:37,910
so we kind of just want to call and proceed with

1072
00:39:37,910 --> 00:39:39,470
caution on future streets.

1073
00:39:39,470 --> 00:39:40,420
Mike: Perfect.

1074
00:39:40,420 --> 00:39:42,720
That's exactly what David decides to do.

1075
00:39:42,720 --> 00:39:43,530
He just calls,

1076
00:39:43,530 --> 00:39:45,230
the button gets out of the way.

1077
00:39:45,230 --> 00:39:47,350
So we're going heads up to the turn and it's a

1078
00:39:47,350 --> 00:39:48,310
pretty good one for us.

1079
00:39:48,310 --> 00:39:49,540
It's the king of diamonds,

1080
00:39:49,750 --> 00:39:52,330
so we turn top two pair and we still have our

1081
00:39:52,330 --> 00:39:55,020
second nut flush draw really crushing this board,

1082
00:39:55,020 --> 00:39:55,480
but again,

1083
00:39:55,960 --> 00:39:58,900
kind of feels like we might be up against a better

1084
00:39:58,900 --> 00:40:02,350
hand and when the big blind bets again for another big

1085
00:40:02,350 --> 00:40:08,730
size, he goes $145 into $175 on this Q73K board.

1086
00:40:08,730 --> 00:40:12,400
Yeah, it just doesn't feel great,

1087
00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:15,070
but it also feels like there's no way we can fold

1088
00:40:15,070 --> 00:40:17,750
this hand if we're up against a low flush.

1089
00:40:17,750 --> 00:40:18,470
We have,

1090
00:40:18,470 --> 00:40:19,390
what is it,

1091
00:40:19,390 --> 00:40:20,620
11 outs to win.

1092
00:40:21,430 --> 00:40:23,680
If we're up against a set,

1093
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:25,600
we have 13 outs to win.

1094
00:40:26,110 --> 00:40:29,300
Maybe once in a while we somehow do have the best

1095
00:40:29,300 --> 00:40:31,410
hand against a lower two pair.

1096
00:40:31,410 --> 00:40:33,020
So what do you think?

1097
00:40:33,020 --> 00:40:34,530
We've got $225 total,

1098
00:40:34,530 --> 00:40:37,270
so facing this $145 bet we're going to be committed.

1099
00:40:37,270 --> 00:40:39,690
So it's basically all in or fold at this point.

1100
00:40:39,690 --> 00:40:41,090
Would you agree with that?

1101
00:40:41,090 --> 00:40:41,790
Gary: Yeah,

1102
00:40:41,790 --> 00:40:45,230
absolutely. There's one thing I just want to quickly talk about.

1103
00:40:45,230 --> 00:40:46,250
This is live poker.

1104
00:40:46,250 --> 00:40:48,860
You've just said that we might have the best hand.

1105
00:40:48,860 --> 00:40:50,070
I think it's possible,

1106
00:40:50,070 --> 00:40:53,820
absolutely. We're not just calculating our outs here if we're behind,

1107
00:40:53,820 --> 00:40:54,530
as Mike says,

1108
00:40:54,530 --> 00:40:57,440
it's still very possible that we're ahead here against some random

1109
00:40:57,440 --> 00:40:59,380
ace of hearts against some random two pair,

1110
00:40:59,380 --> 00:41:02,200
against just some random air ball that this dude has just

1111
00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:03,570
decided to blast off with.

1112
00:41:03,570 --> 00:41:05,360
I think our hand is very strong.

1113
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:06,670
We've got top two pair,

1114
00:41:06,700 --> 00:41:09,120
we've got the backdoor second nut flush draw if we need

1115
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:11,920
it. We can't call and I'm definitely not folding.

1116
00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:14,400
I'm putting the rest of my chips in hoping for the

1117
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:18,940
best. I don't think this is a particularly ghastly spot.

1118
00:41:18,940 --> 00:41:20,380
We've got a strong hand,

1119
00:41:20,380 --> 00:41:22,390
we've got the redraw if we need it.

1120
00:41:22,400 --> 00:41:24,450
I'm happy to put the money in here.

1121
00:41:24,450 --> 00:41:25,330
If we're much,

1122
00:41:25,330 --> 00:41:26,140
much deeper,

1123
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:29,170
obviously just calling even if we're a bit deeper just calling.

1124
00:41:29,500 --> 00:41:31,550
But given the low stack to pot ratio,

1125
00:41:31,550 --> 00:41:32,230
the big bet,

1126
00:41:32,230 --> 00:41:33,970
there's nothing else we can do here.

1127
00:41:33,970 --> 00:41:35,410
Put the chips in and pray.

1128
00:41:35,410 --> 00:41:38,140
Mike: I think you made a good point there about a

1129
00:41:38,140 --> 00:41:39,380
random ace of hearts.

1130
00:41:39,380 --> 00:41:42,450
I could see certain live players having a hand like Ace

1131
00:41:42,450 --> 00:41:43,070
of hearts,

1132
00:41:43,070 --> 00:41:43,750
seven here,

1133
00:41:43,750 --> 00:41:45,120
like off suit Ace seven,

1134
00:41:45,120 --> 00:41:47,650
which obviously would never call pre-flop,

1135
00:41:47,650 --> 00:41:51,210
but I wouldn't put it past random live players to occasionally

1136
00:41:51,210 --> 00:41:54,290
call with that hand and then in their mind they flopped

1137
00:41:54,290 --> 00:41:54,910
a monster,

1138
00:41:54,910 --> 00:41:57,780
they flop middle pair and the ace of hearts nut flush

1139
00:41:57,780 --> 00:42:00,310
draw on this Queen Seven Three all heart flop.

1140
00:42:00,310 --> 00:42:01,780
So maybe that's possible.

1141
00:42:01,780 --> 00:42:04,580
Maybe you could be up against something like that,

1142
00:42:04,580 --> 00:42:07,180
like Ace of Hearts + seven Ace of Hearts + Queen,

1143
00:42:07,180 --> 00:42:08,380
Ace of Hearts + three.

1144
00:42:08,380 --> 00:42:10,040
Yeah, it seems possible to me.

1145
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:12,180
Gary: King Jack with a jack of hearts.

1146
00:42:12,180 --> 00:42:15,000
The list of hands that live players can have in this

1147
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:16,090
spot are endless.

1148
00:42:16,090 --> 00:42:18,630
We are a little worried given the big lead,

1149
00:42:18,630 --> 00:42:19,860
but it's live poker.

1150
00:42:19,860 --> 00:42:21,820
I've seen many things in my time,

1151
00:42:21,820 --> 00:42:22,330
so yeah,

1152
00:42:22,330 --> 00:42:25,380
it's not as scary a spot as we might initially think

1153
00:42:25,380 --> 00:42:26,540
here. Mike: Yeah,

1154
00:42:26,540 --> 00:42:29,010
I think we just got to go with it and before

1155
00:42:29,010 --> 00:42:30,170
we see the results,

1156
00:42:30,170 --> 00:42:33,440
I want to quickly tell you about the Lucid GTO trainer.

1157
00:42:33,440 --> 00:42:36,710
We are starting the closed early access period soon.

1158
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:40,670
That's the tool we were using earlier in this podcast to

1159
00:42:40,670 --> 00:42:43,400
verify those spots in our first hand from Simon.

1160
00:42:43,790 --> 00:42:46,670
If you are interested in being one of the first people

1161
00:42:46,670 --> 00:42:48,310
to use the Lucid GTO Trainer,

1162
00:42:48,310 --> 00:42:50,540
kind of be along for the ride with us,

1163
00:42:50,540 --> 00:42:52,560
you'll be in a private discord with Doug,

1164
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:53,270
Gary, myself,

1165
00:42:53,270 --> 00:42:55,610
a bunch of other people from our team and we'll kind

1166
00:42:55,610 --> 00:42:58,430
of talk about and iterate the tool until we're ready to

1167
00:42:58,430 --> 00:42:59,810
release it to everyone.

1168
00:43:00,170 --> 00:43:04,340
Go ahead and go to upswingpoker.com/lucid-waitlist.

1169
00:43:04,340 --> 00:43:05,870
You could also just go to upswingpoker.com,

1170
00:43:05,870 --> 00:43:08,460
go under the training tab and you will see Lucid as

1171
00:43:08,460 --> 00:43:09,470
one of the options.

1172
00:43:09,680 --> 00:43:10,670
Sign up there,

1173
00:43:10,730 --> 00:43:14,240
choose your preferred device and we will reach out to you

1174
00:43:14,240 --> 00:43:17,530
when the tool is ready for you to use it.

1175
00:43:17,530 --> 00:43:19,430
Back to our hand.

1176
00:43:19,490 --> 00:43:21,140
Let's see the results.

1177
00:43:21,140 --> 00:43:24,460
The river is the 10 of hearts gives us the second

1178
00:43:24,460 --> 00:43:25,220
nut flush,

1179
00:43:25,220 --> 00:43:29,470
but unfortunately we're up against the Ace Eight of hearts.

1180
00:43:29,470 --> 00:43:32,790
The guy leads big on the flop with the nut flush.

1181
00:43:32,790 --> 00:43:33,890
Bombs the turn,

1182
00:43:33,890 --> 00:43:37,210
this big blind did not want to miss out on value,

1183
00:43:37,210 --> 00:43:37,890
did they?

1184
00:43:37,890 --> 00:43:41,540
Gary? They were going to do the betting themselves.

1185
00:43:41,540 --> 00:43:43,580
Gary: Where is the justice?

1186
00:43:43,580 --> 00:43:46,680
Where is the justice king of spades on the river?

1187
00:43:46,680 --> 00:43:47,720
This lead for pot,

1188
00:43:47,720 --> 00:43:48,820
this bomb the turn.

1189
00:43:48,820 --> 00:43:50,410
I mean it is just spineless,

1190
00:43:50,410 --> 00:43:50,960
isn't it?

1191
00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:53,650
I hope the person with the Ace Eight of hearts is

1192
00:43:53,650 --> 00:43:54,550
watching this.

1193
00:43:54,550 --> 00:43:55,510
It's spineless.

1194
00:43:55,510 --> 00:43:56,410
It's terrible.

1195
00:43:56,410 --> 00:43:57,170
Mike: Yeah,

1196
00:43:57,170 --> 00:44:00,200
it is really just to critique their play a little bit,

1197
00:44:00,200 --> 00:44:02,620
and I don't want to bash them too much here,

1198
00:44:02,620 --> 00:44:05,790
but what they're hoping for when they make this play is,

1199
00:44:05,790 --> 00:44:07,700
well, I hope I'm coolering my opponent.

1200
00:44:07,880 --> 00:44:11,590
That's essentially how they played this hand because if they had

1201
00:44:11,590 --> 00:44:13,080
the five four of hearts,

1202
00:44:13,080 --> 00:44:16,340
there actually are benefits to denying equity,

1203
00:44:16,340 --> 00:44:17,420
to building the pot,

1204
00:44:17,420 --> 00:44:19,250
to not letting get checked around.

1205
00:44:19,610 --> 00:44:21,420
But when you have ace eight of hearts,

1206
00:44:21,420 --> 00:44:22,940
you're not afraid of anything.

1207
00:44:23,720 --> 00:44:26,890
You don't have to just jam money into the pot immediately

1208
00:44:26,890 --> 00:44:30,000
and hope you're coolering your opponent because if you're coolering your

1209
00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:33,240
opponent, you're probably going to stack them anyway,

1210
00:44:33,240 --> 00:44:36,420
so you don't really have a big upside to making this

1211
00:44:36,420 --> 00:44:39,630
play over just making the more standard play of checking on

1212
00:44:39,630 --> 00:44:41,310
the flop check raising if you want,

1213
00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:42,180
whatever you want to do.

1214
00:44:42,510 --> 00:44:44,740
This just wasn't the right way to play the nut flush

1215
00:44:44,740 --> 00:44:47,440
and I feel bad for David that he happened to have

1216
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:50,460
this super strong top two pair with a redraw and was

1217
00:44:50,460 --> 00:44:52,420
pretty much dead to those four outs.

1218
00:44:52,420 --> 00:44:54,250
The king or the queen on the river.

1219
00:44:54,250 --> 00:44:54,710
Too bad.

1220
00:44:54,710 --> 00:44:55,420
Gary: Yeah,

1221
00:44:55,420 --> 00:44:58,160
we're bashing the guy with the Ace eight of hearts,

1222
00:44:58,160 --> 00:44:59,540
but he's won the maximum,

1223
00:44:59,540 --> 00:45:01,820
so maybe shouldn't be bashing him as much.

1224
00:45:01,820 --> 00:45:03,320
In all seriousness though,

1225
00:45:03,320 --> 00:45:04,820
David, if you're watching,

1226
00:45:04,820 --> 00:45:08,480
sometimes you're supposed to get stacked and you should never feel

1227
00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:10,810
bad if you get stacked in one of those spots.

1228
00:45:10,810 --> 00:45:12,750
This is very much one of those times,

1229
00:45:12,750 --> 00:45:13,920
it's just a cooler.

1230
00:45:13,920 --> 00:45:17,370
Losing your money by being coolered is completely okay,

1231
00:45:17,370 --> 00:45:18,720
so don't beat yourself up about it.

1232
00:45:18,720 --> 00:45:19,890
You played the hand just fine.

1233
00:45:20,850 --> 00:45:21,810
For those of us watching,

1234
00:45:21,810 --> 00:45:23,640
we have to be comfortable with getting stacked.

1235
00:45:23,640 --> 00:45:25,980
We have to be okay with losing money.

1236
00:45:25,980 --> 00:45:28,440
It's part of the game and sometimes it's inevitable,

1237
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:31,300
so sometimes you can get stacked and misplay the hand.

1238
00:45:31,300 --> 00:45:34,100
Sometimes you can get stacked and play the hand very,

1239
00:45:34,100 --> 00:45:34,670
very well.

1240
00:45:34,670 --> 00:45:36,840
This is very much one of the latter times.

1241
00:45:36,840 --> 00:45:38,170
This hand is well played,

1242
00:45:38,170 --> 00:45:39,250
we've been stacked.

1243
00:45:39,250 --> 00:45:40,590
That's completely okay.

1244
00:45:40,590 --> 00:45:41,860
We rebuy and we go again.

1245
00:45:41,860 --> 00:45:42,560
Mike: Yeah,

1246
00:45:42,560 --> 00:45:44,020
I would rebuy at this table.

1247
00:45:44,020 --> 00:45:46,890
It's clearly a soft one and hopefully David was able to

1248
00:45:46,890 --> 00:45:48,550
turn it around in this session.

1249
00:45:48,550 --> 00:45:50,580
One more note on what Gary was saying.

1250
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:53,460
The best players in the world who play cash games all

1251
00:45:53,460 --> 00:45:53,940
the time,

1252
00:45:54,150 --> 00:45:55,830
they'll go on 10,

1253
00:45:55,830 --> 00:46:00,080
20, 30 buy-in downswings somewhat regularly because this stuff is just

1254
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:00,990
supposed to happen.

1255
00:46:01,140 --> 00:46:03,270
You're supposed to get coolered sometimes and get stacked.

1256
00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:05,670
You're supposed to make a hero call sometimes and get stacked.

1257
00:46:05,670 --> 00:46:08,250
You're supposed to make a big bluff sometimes and run into

1258
00:46:08,250 --> 00:46:08,790
a good hand.

1259
00:46:09,060 --> 00:46:10,200
That's just poker for you.

1260
00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:13,600
You have to be ready for that variance and don't let

1261
00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:15,720
it deter you from continuing to grind.

1262
00:46:15,720 --> 00:46:17,880
You just have to know that it's going to happen.

1263
00:46:18,210 --> 00:46:19,040
Play your best,

1264
00:46:19,230 --> 00:46:22,520
always try to get better and take steps forward even when

1265
00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:25,150
your bankroll might be taking some steps back.

1266
00:46:25,150 --> 00:46:26,190
With all that said,

1267
00:46:26,190 --> 00:46:29,040
we hope you enjoyed this special hand review based episode.

1268
00:46:29,040 --> 00:46:32,050
Thank you very much to the three lab members who submitted

1269
00:46:32,050 --> 00:46:34,260
hands. If you enjoyed this type of episode,

1270
00:46:34,260 --> 00:46:35,490
please hit that like button,

1271
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:38,250
hit the subscribe button if you want to watch more episodes

1272
00:46:38,250 --> 00:46:40,310
of Upswing Poker Level up and we'll see you in the

1273
00:46:40,310 --> 00:46:40,710
next one.