1 00:00:00,001 --> 00:00:06,080 You're listening to the Options Insider Radio Network, the home of the Options Podcast. 2 00:00:06,080 --> 00:00:14,720 For more quality options programs, visit theoptionsinsider.com or search for Options Insider Radio Network 3 00:00:14,720 --> 00:00:17,320 in your podcast provider of choice. 4 00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:22,000 Listeners can also access all of our programming through our mobile app available on the iTunes 5 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:23,920 and Google Play stores. 6 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:31,120 Most programs are also available via livestream at mixler.com/options-insider. 7 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:36,800 That's mixlr.com/options-insider. 8 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:40,880 Don't forget to follow along with your favorite programs and submit your own questions for 9 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:52,360 the host set twitter.com/options, stocktwits.com/options, facebook.com/theoptionsinsider, or via questions 10 00:00:52,360 --> 00:01:05,120 at theoptionsinsider.com. 11 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:10,480 Welcome to Volatility Views, the premier program for volatility traders. 12 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:15,600 Each week we'll take a deep dive into the world of volatility with in-depth analysis, 13 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:21,600 trading activity reviews, strategy breakdowns, cutting edge education, and much more. 14 00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:26,640 We'll also bring you exclusive conversations with the traders, researchers, and asset managers 15 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:29,560 who are reshaping the volatility landscape. 16 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:34,840 If it involves volatility, then you'll find it on Volatility Views. 17 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:39,960 And now, it's time to take a deep dive into the world of volatility. 18 00:01:39,960 --> 00:01:46,520 It's time for Volatility Views. 19 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:57,360 Alright everybody, that music can mean but one thing, it is Friday, it is noon central, 20 00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:03,160 it is 1pm in my current time zone, the eastern time zone, yes it is time once again, to talk 21 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:05,120 about a little bit of volatility. 22 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:09,040 My name of course, Mark Longo from theoptionsinsider.com. 23 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:13,520 If I sound a wee bit different, and I probably do is because I'm coming at you not from the 24 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:19,480 Chi-town studio, no, but from the southern studio here in sunny and ridiculously warm 25 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:25,200 triple digit Orlando, Florida for the STA national conference. 26 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:27,240 This conference has been evolving over the years. 27 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:31,400 When I first went years ago, I was kind of the only options guy in the room. 28 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:35,640 These days, it's like a mini OIC that most of the exchanges are here, most of the options 29 00:02:35,640 --> 00:02:37,040 personnel are down here. 30 00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:39,120 It's becoming much more of an options event. 31 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:41,880 You'll see as you hear some of the shows, some of the shows have already hit obviously 32 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:45,560 from what we've been recording down here in the studio at STA. 33 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:48,000 More to come, they'll be hitting the pro side first. 34 00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:49,480 Some of those already making their way to the pro. 35 00:02:49,480 --> 00:02:53,360 If you want to check those out early, of course, get access to options oddities, which is already 36 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:55,400 actually up on the feed as we speak now. 37 00:02:55,400 --> 00:03:02,880 I had an early options oddities today, as well as so much else, theoptionsinsider.com/pro 38 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:04,680 is the place to go to learn more. 39 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:11,040 As we learn who's joining us on the old program today, first, let's go out to the hinterlands 40 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:17,040 of Chicago, where we are joined once again by the once future and present Dr. Vixx. 41 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:19,440 He moonlights in a little bit of V stocks. 42 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:21,880 Mr. Dr. Vixx, welcome back to the show, sir. 43 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:25,040 As always, thrilled to be here. 44 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:31,560 I'm actually kind of glad I'm not down there in Florida with you. 45 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:33,000 It sounds very uncomfortable. 46 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:36,120 I mean, it's like 90 here in Chicago. 47 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:37,400 It was freaking hot. 48 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:41,720 Where they had outside people were I think I think melting is the technical term. 49 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:43,840 Yes, it was very, you know, down there. 50 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:48,120 It's not so much the heat is just how freaking hot it is. 51 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:49,240 You know, it is a swamp. 52 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:50,240 So that doesn't help. 53 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:53,800 That doesn't help with the with the true when it's triple digits. 54 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:57,120 Yeah, then you're then you're really feeling it. 55 00:03:57,120 --> 00:03:58,920 I don't know if he's feeling it down where he is. 56 00:03:58,920 --> 00:03:59,920 Let's find out. 57 00:03:59,920 --> 00:04:04,600 Let's go out now to the southern volatility Mecca known as Austin, home of last year's 58 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:07,920 RMC, where we are joined once again by the greasiest of meatballs. 59 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:10,120 Mr. Mark Sebastian from option pit.com. 60 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:11,120 Mr. Meatball. 61 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:12,120 Welcome back to the show. 62 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:13,120 Are you going to RMC this year? 63 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:14,560 I believe it's in Utah. 64 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:17,720 I don't think so, but you never know. 65 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:19,520 Maybe I will. 66 00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:21,000 You can walk to Utah from Texas, right? 67 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:24,600 I mean, it's like it's like oh yeah, super close right down the street, right down the 68 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:25,600 street. 69 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:26,720 Austin super, super close. 70 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:29,000 That's how that geography of the western states works, right? 71 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:30,240 Just walk right over there. 72 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:31,240 Nothing. 73 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:33,800 Nothing to see over there as we keep on rolling ourselves. 74 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:42,280 We're going to get to the volatility review. 75 00:04:42,280 --> 00:04:47,680 It's time to break down the latest developments in the volatility trading world. 76 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:50,440 It's time for the volatility review. 77 00:04:50,440 --> 00:05:13,440 All right, everybody, let's get down to business time for the volatility review of the portion 78 00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:18,120 of the show where we break down what's trading and what's trending and what's going on from 79 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:22,560 unusual activity and all sorts of fun perspectives in the world of volume. 80 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:24,720 Of course, we got another hot one in store for us this week. 81 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:27,160 It was Fed Week after all. 82 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:30,680 That usually tends to drive some action, drive some paper this week. 83 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:32,520 No exception, of course. 84 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:37,800 A half point coming in hot from Powell and company this week. 85 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:41,680 Most people were leaning towards a quarter of a point, even at this time a week ago. 86 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:46,920 We did see a pretty marked shift in the Fed Watch in the intervening days leading into 87 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:51,400 the session where all of a sudden the half point was becoming more and more in favor. 88 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:56,520 Clearly that was the right choice in hindsight, at least from a lining up with Powell perspective. 89 00:05:56,520 --> 00:05:58,680 Market had some fun digesting it at first. 90 00:05:58,680 --> 00:05:59,680 It rallied. 91 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:02,440 Then we saw a pretty aggressive sell off towards the end of the session. 92 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:06,700 Then of course, yesterday, the bulls just got the bit in their teeth again and everything 93 00:06:06,700 --> 00:06:08,200 was up strong. 94 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:10,120 S&P north of 5,700. 95 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:13,880 New all-time highs close to across the board out there. 96 00:06:13,880 --> 00:06:19,120 Then coming into today, it seemed like maybe the bears were going to turn it down a notch. 97 00:06:19,120 --> 00:06:20,120 They came in hitting everything. 98 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:23,480 We got back below 5,700 again, which just saying that out loud sounds crazy. 99 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:24,720 It wasn't that long ago. 100 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:27,160 We were threatening 5,100 in the other direction. 101 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:29,080 So breaking through 5,700. 102 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:30,480 Oh my God. 103 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:31,480 Dogs and cats living together. 104 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:33,400 But we did that this morning. 105 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:38,040 Got down to around 5,680 or so before it looks like the bulls have the bit in their teeth 106 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:40,200 again turning the S&P back around. 107 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:43,240 S&P is still red right now, off about 0.15%. 108 00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:45,560 The Nasdaq still read off about a third of a percent. 109 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:47,280 But it was right across the board. 110 00:06:47,280 --> 00:06:50,460 The Dow has now ticked green up 0.15%. 111 00:06:50,460 --> 00:06:55,360 So we'll see if it's one of those days where the early sell off was a head fake or perhaps 112 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:58,040 say a portent of things to come. 113 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:01,040 Vicks at about a 1585 when we kicked off the show. 114 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:06,120 So back at a 15 handle, that puts it down about two thirds of a point from where we 115 00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:07,280 were this time a week ago. 116 00:07:07,280 --> 00:07:11,200 We seem like we did a lot of living over the span of that intervening week. 117 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:12,200 But back to 1585. 118 00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:14,400 Did you have a VIX of the 15 handle listeners? 119 00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:17,240 I guess we'll find out in the crystal ball in a little bit. 120 00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:18,880 Vvix 97. 121 00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:23,640 So back down from triple digits, but just ever so briefly down about three points from 122 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:25,480 where it was this time last week. 123 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:27,160 So a lot to unpack. 124 00:07:27,160 --> 00:07:28,720 Let's go around the horn. 125 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:31,800 Let's start with the once future and present Dr. Vicks. 126 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:39,200 First off, your thoughts on our Powell & Company exceeding expectations at least from a week 127 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:43,280 ago and going the full half point and the markets reaction from there. 128 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:45,880 And what else is catching your eye on the ball front this week, sir? 129 00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:49,760 The derivative markets were pricing in 50 basis points for some time. 130 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:54,960 And I know most people take a look at the CME Group one. 131 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:58,680 The one on Bloomberg, I feel like is a bit more accurate because it's taking in more 132 00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:01,320 than just the CME markets. 133 00:08:01,320 --> 00:08:05,980 And that one's been pointing to 50 basis points for a couple of weeks. 134 00:08:05,980 --> 00:08:11,080 And I feel like the true volatility event would have been which is real easy to say 135 00:08:11,080 --> 00:08:13,080 in hindsight. 136 00:08:13,080 --> 00:08:19,720 But I was quoted in the press saying that if they did face 50 basis points, it probably 137 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:25,040 wouldn't be a huge reaction and the market would consider it somewhat of a relief because 138 00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:27,640 that's what the market wants. 139 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:35,160 And I mean, Powell has snuck this in every once in a while, but he doesn't surprise us 140 00:08:35,160 --> 00:08:36,640 that much. 141 00:08:36,640 --> 00:08:44,760 You know, I think if you're betting on Powell surprising you, 19 times out of 20, you're 142 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:51,600 going to be disappointed because as much as the poor guy gets criticized, I mean, he is 143 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:56,680 very straightforward with pretty much here's what we're going to do. 144 00:08:56,680 --> 00:09:00,160 I think almost to the point where people start to have to make some stuff up just to make 145 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:03,400 him more interesting. 146 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:09,880 You know, like me versus Mark Sebastian, you got to make stuff up about me because I'm nowhere 147 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:12,400 near as interesting as Mark Sebastian. 148 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:13,720 Does he have raging head trauma? 149 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:14,720 I don't think so. 150 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:15,720 So there you go. 151 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:16,720 Bam. 152 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:17,720 No, he doesn't got your winning and you're winning right there, sir. 153 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:18,880 But I went on that one. 154 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:21,800 How do you imply that there are markets outside of CME Treasury? 155 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:22,800 Mark, what are you saying, sir? 156 00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:32,360 There's nothing I I am a I'm a free agent and I still get nasty notes from from exchanges 157 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:33,920 every once in a while. 158 00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:36,160 But I just call it as I see it. 159 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:37,360 And I'm not badmelling CME. 160 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:43,360 I'm just saying that and it's a great tool, especially because it's free. 161 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:49,400 But it gives you a little bit different forecast than some of the option adjusted spread stuff 162 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:50,960 that you can get off of Bloomberg. 163 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:51,960 Yeah, you're right. 164 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:55,000 It was because even as recently, I think as our volbues last week, it was still leaning 165 00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:58,200 almost really like yeah, yeah, 75 percent. 166 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:03,440 And the quarter basis point or 25 basis points, it wasn't until later that we saw that swing 167 00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:04,680 closer to 50. 168 00:10:04,680 --> 00:10:09,280 I was surprised at how how strong it was towards 25 basis points, quite frankly. 169 00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:13,680 So, yeah, interesting stuff out there this week from Powell and company. 170 00:10:13,680 --> 00:10:19,080 We go down now to the land of the Southern Volatility Mecca, which we have established 171 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:24,040 earlier in the show is just a short brisk walk from Utah so he could easily walk to 172 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:25,040 RMC. 173 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:26,040 Mr. 174 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:27,040 Mr. 175 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:28,040 Mr. 176 00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:33,780 But you estimate on the option block if you have any further thoughts on what power and company did surprise not a surprise and then 177 00:10:33,780 --> 00:10:35,780 Be what caught your eye in the? 178 00:10:35,780 --> 00:10:39,060 Volatility tumult that followed sir. Yeah, you know 179 00:10:39,060 --> 00:10:45,620 You know typically the first reaction is the wrong one and we were ended up kind of up and then down 180 00:10:45,620 --> 00:10:51,800 You know going in options expiration, I'm not surprised that we were a little bit bullish 181 00:10:51,800 --> 00:10:55,120 Going into quadruple witching especially coming out of this 182 00:10:55,680 --> 00:10:58,060 But you got to wonder you know 183 00:10:58,060 --> 00:11:01,340 I actually would have liked to seen a quarter basis point relative to a half 184 00:11:01,340 --> 00:11:06,900 I think the half tells me that they're a little more worried about the economy than maybe they're letting on 185 00:11:06,900 --> 00:11:14,900 And a quarter would have just said hey, you know, we're bottoming now. We're gonna slowly move things 186 00:11:14,900 --> 00:11:19,480 You know, I was looking back. I have not seen a lot of precedent for a 187 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:26,640 We are you know, we were we raised 14 months ago and now we're already going to a quarter basis point 188 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:31,760 Many times I don't know Russell if you've seen anything like that historically 189 00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:41,360 Other than you know when there's been some issues. So it just has me just has me thinking a little bit maybe 190 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:47,920 Maybe they're a little more nervous than they're letting on and I'm wondering if the market once we're free of expiration 191 00:11:47,920 --> 00:11:50,000 Is could start wondering the same thing 192 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:56,440 That was the concern right half basis point signals look out below because there's there's more lurking in there than perhaps we know 193 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:59,140 Speaking of looking at the past as prologue 194 00:11:59,140 --> 00:12:02,920 I saw an interesting write-up the other day and maybe kind of just just shake my head like what are we doing? 195 00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:03,960 It was an article entitled 196 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:05,960 I believe it was how Nvidia has 197 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:09,460 Performed during past rate cuts and I was like really are we doing this? 198 00:12:09,460 --> 00:12:10,320 When's a lot first off? 199 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:15,840 When's the last time we had a big rate cut like this and then see be it was a very different Nvidia back then 200 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:20,240 Talking about mobile chips and maybe a little bit of crypto versus now all AI yet 201 00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:25,760 They're somehow trying to tie the two together, but that's where we are right now listeners as we keep on rolling 202 00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:29,360 Let's see where we are in the volatility surface. Shall we listeners and 203 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:33,240 Spoiler alert, but we're down a little bit, but not a ton 204 00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:35,900 We had a step of course rolling off the board this week 205 00:12:35,900 --> 00:12:42,360 So October slotting into that pole position and coming it to show time it was down but down slightly 206 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:47,040 In fact, we're down about the same and the oc and the no cycle both of them down 207 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:49,800 Right around two tenths of a point 208 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:53,960 Scrolling on out here through the rest of the term structure all the way into 209 00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:59,040 Almost halfway through next year and we and once again, there's no no 20 handles to be found 210 00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:05,720 Looks like we top out at almost in 1918 80 back in or out in May of next year 211 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:10,280 But outside of that not a heck of a lot going on. Mr. Mr. Doctor Bixar 212 00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:14,360 What's catching your eye in a gentle drift lower on the term structure this week? 213 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:23,440 You know the one thing that I was kind of thought we would see I didn't want to make the bowl bowl prediction 214 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:27,840 But I thought we might get ack below November 215 00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:31,800 After the Fed was out of the way and then that that just didn't happen yet 216 00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:34,840 It'll get there, but that just didn't happen yet. So 217 00:13:35,360 --> 00:13:40,840 20-cent spread as I look at it right now and and I don't know what I'm gonna be fixated on 218 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:42,560 after 219 00:13:42,560 --> 00:13:46,960 October expiration, what will I look at? Yeah, I know what are we gonna do here? We've been 220 00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:49,680 talking about 221 00:13:49,680 --> 00:13:58,880 Expecting somebody in the chat to pop in there and go Russell, please freakin talk about something else. Um, 222 00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:04,200 I will tell I will tell you that the December discount to November 223 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:06,640 Is a little interesting 224 00:14:06,640 --> 00:14:09,120 It's all you know, it's about a dime right now and 225 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:13,720 Normally, you know normally we see a bigger divot than that 226 00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:19,180 But I I wonder if and and I was watching my buddy cat temp 227 00:14:19,180 --> 00:14:23,280 I'm on Joe Rogan and they were talking about potential post 228 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:25,560 election 229 00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:31,480 Physical volatility. Will there be pallets of bricks dropped off in the big cities again and all that kind of stuff 230 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:36,320 So, you know, maybe December is holding up a little bit more 231 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:39,480 again due to the election uncertainty and 232 00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:45,560 And what I do think it's gonna take to get that out of there is just a decisive outcome one way or another 233 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:49,880 I'm personally at the point where I just want to know that night 234 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:54,080 I don't care which two of these awful people ends up being the net being president 235 00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:58,000 Do I see you're with me and the none of the above camp? 236 00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:02,520 Hey, hey, somebody told me they were voting for me yesterday 237 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:11,120 Alright in there you go. I yeah, I might read like right us right and and and and Mark Sebastian you actually know this person 238 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:17,600 So oh really? Well, you just gave me idea now. I've got a candidate I can believe in that's it. There you go 239 00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:25,120 There we go. They've always tell me they send me a few write-ins every time but I have yet to count up my writing 240 00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:28,000 I might actually have a handful maybe a dozen votes were present. So there we go 241 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:31,880 That might count for something and maybe I can get a free coffee at Starbucks, but mr 242 00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:34,600 Yeah, you're right the pallets. I forgot about the pallets of bricks. Yes 243 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:39,040 That was that was all the talk in Chi town leading into DNC there come the pallets of bricks 244 00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:44,280 Hopefully we don't see but maybe you know what we had fun back in 2016. I don't know mr. Dr 245 00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:48,720 Bic should we do another live election night special? It was kind of fun last time even if I've 246 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:52,520 Did you 247 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:56,760 Okay, look at you you're planning my schedule for me. So there we go. Oh, yeah 248 00:15:57,240 --> 00:16:02,400 You know, I just kind of assumed you would want to so it is one of those years this year 249 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:07,000 Yeah, are we gonna see Matt? I mean listeners we want some fun go back and check out in the archive 250 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:14,060 Maybe we'll repost it make it easier to find the 2016 live special that that Russell and I did even that's why I Joe 251 00:16:14,060 --> 00:16:17,200 I talked about people say they know who's going to win right now 252 00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:21,160 We didn't even know even that night member Trump's don't seem like a distant long shot 253 00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:24,140 Hillary was still in the lead until you came on this 254 00:16:24,140 --> 00:16:28,200 I think it was you came on the show partway through and said I think he just won Ohio and that's when 255 00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:31,240 That's when it became real the first time. Oh wait 256 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:37,280 Yeah, we we got really lucky on that on the timing that evening and the fact that I'm sober 257 00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:42,280 Yes, that's true. That's true. The sobering has helped mr. Mr. Meatball, sir 258 00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:46,040 What are your thoughts on what we're seeing out here and the term structure and the fact that you're right 259 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:51,740 We've been fixating on October for so long. We need something else to look at. Well, hopefully we do we'll see what happens 260 00:16:51,740 --> 00:16:54,360 Yeah, I mean, I think October is 261 00:16:54,360 --> 00:17:03,800 Really lining up to start easing off here. I think you're gonna start seeing some pressure here. I really like I I think 262 00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:07,880 January is the contract. I like to own I like short I like 263 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:10,960 Short ock long either nove or Jan 264 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:15,360 I think no view actually the no future is actually the one that's gonna move with the election 265 00:17:15,360 --> 00:17:17,940 That's the one that I would actually want to want to own 266 00:17:17,940 --> 00:17:22,720 I understand the October will kind of reflect what November options are showing 267 00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:30,080 But by October expiration, you know, it's October 16th, I believe is that correct? 268 00:17:30,080 --> 00:17:38,640 Yeah, that's an early one. Yeah, we're still like three weeks out. I don't think it'll really have that really well priced in yet and 269 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:45,440 So I'd rather be trading in November and really I think if you want to kind of encapsulate everything 270 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:49,800 January is gonna give you that clean look at kind of the entire process 271 00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:51,680 so I 272 00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:58,200 Ross Russell you'll like this I put on a short October UV XY long 273 00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:04,960 Long January VIX VIX call spreads. That was kind of my my my 274 00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:07,280 my leveraged 275 00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:12,480 short term short vol long term own own January play I 276 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:21,720 Like that one an awful lot. I've been I've been looking at the the midterm ETFs a little bit as well 277 00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:29,040 Just you know because they they focus on that farther part of the curve and they're probably not going to have a whole lot of reaction 278 00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:33,160 In October November regardless of what's going on 279 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:41,080 But you know if you if you're maybe want to have short term long volatility and longer term short volatility 280 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:48,760 You can you can put that sucker on and that maybe offset some of your long short dated long volatility 281 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:52,760 With the drift lower by the longer dated stuff 282 00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:54,920 I 283 00:18:54,920 --> 00:19:01,120 Yeah, I got a nice list of things to do always and when I really want to dig on is 284 00:19:01,120 --> 00:19:06,360 You know where you know, where are we with respect to? 285 00:19:06,360 --> 00:19:10,240 November option expiration and the election and 286 00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:13,080 November option, I mean right now 287 00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:21,040 At the Friday weeklies are the ones that you probably would start to play and they're available 288 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:25,240 We've got November believe November 6th options are right after the election, right? 289 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:28,920 I'm trying to do a calendar thing in my head all at the same time 290 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:34,580 But if that's happening and those are the options that people start to take a look at 291 00:19:34,580 --> 00:19:38,720 Yeah, the actually they would be November 8th options 292 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:43,000 They haven't listed those yet, but they do have options already available 293 00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:49,940 expiring the night of November 6th on the SPX which is the day after the election 294 00:19:49,940 --> 00:19:52,400 so 295 00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:58,040 We might be able to start to get some insight from you know from just the option pricing on those 296 00:19:58,040 --> 00:20:04,800 Hmm and the other point behind that is I and is I you know 297 00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:09,560 Those are not those aren't the options that are gonna be feeding into the October expiration 298 00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:15,960 So that might you know if you're gonna play it and they're starting to make these expirations that are available 299 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:21,040 Right after the election, you know, hopefully we know the outcome 300 00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:26,380 That that might start to take some of the interest away from the October futures 301 00:20:26,380 --> 00:20:34,920 Well, there's always interest in what's popping off out here in Vix land listener, so let's get to that now 302 00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:40,240 Is it a banger day out there for VIX options so far? The answer is no 303 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:43,940 I mean when you compare it to the ADV, which is continuing to come back down from its 304 00:20:43,940 --> 00:20:48,720 Ridiculously lofty heights of August which again saying that out loud also sounds crazy 305 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:53,700 But the ADV is coming in another sixty eight thousand or so this week to nine thirty four still 306 00:20:53,700 --> 00:21:00,400 Robust still threatening a million contracts a day, but that puts what we're seeing today for 26 and a little bit better context 307 00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:06,260 We're almost halfway to the ADV. So if you see it from that perspective, it's it's about what you would expect out there 308 00:21:06,260 --> 00:21:13,120 But you know, what's never what we expect, which is why we do it listeners. It is time for Russell's weekly rundown 309 00:21:13,120 --> 00:21:17,480 Russell's weekly rundown 310 00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:23,360 Russell's weekly rundown 311 00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:32,640 All right, mr. Rhodes you have the floor 40 minutes of Russell's weekly rundown goodness go the floor 312 00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:35,360 Oh my god, you know what? We could actually do that 313 00:21:35,360 --> 00:21:41,140 Is that much I guess it was a Fed week. Oh, yeah. No, um, so I you know you 314 00:21:41,140 --> 00:21:45,400 the way that I judge the weekly activity is 315 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:49,440 I I download the week the weekly trades from 316 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:52,960 From Bloomberg and you can only download 20 at a time 317 00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:57,840 So I have to download 20 and then you know cut and paste and all that kind of crap 318 00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:04,420 This is the first time that I had to download five pages of weeklies and that was from Wednesday 319 00:22:04,420 --> 00:22:10,860 So there was a whole lot of trading. It was horrible trading on Wednesday though. So let me backtrack a little bit 320 00:22:10,860 --> 00:22:16,340 Nobody traded the weeklies fairly well around the announcement around the Fed announcement 321 00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:25,040 Mostly bullish VIX trades. In fact, I had a hell of a time. I was I was trying to offer some guidance to a reporter on Monday 322 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:32,000 And Tuesday around the Fed and I couldn't find a really big bearish trade in the VIX complex to save my life 323 00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:38,200 So on Monday trade, I really do not like and I'm explain why I don't like this one 324 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:41,200 somebody with VIX just under 17 325 00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:47,560 somebody came in about 5,000 of the September 25th 22 calls for 45 cents and sold 326 00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:53,640 5,000 of the September 25th 25 calls for 26 cents. They only paid 19 cents for that 327 00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:59,080 My issue with that and really my issue if you're trying to play a volatility spike 328 00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:04,600 With options you're better off just buying an option 329 00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:07,200 You're better off just buying a call 330 00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:13,400 Because let's just say you know VIX had spiked up to 23 or 24 331 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,080 right out on 332 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:20,480 Wednesday and they still had a week to go. I don't know they paid 19 cents for this thing 333 00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:24,440 I don't know how you know if they would have been able to get out get out of it too 334 00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:28,920 Well, you've got the skew where your short options are gonna have higher implied vol 335 00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:35,120 Than your you know, then the long options in this spread. So, you know if you're gonna play something like this 336 00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:42,360 That 19 cents or the 26 cents of income that you're taking in. I just don't think it's worth it. I 337 00:23:42,360 --> 00:23:47,480 Personally think you want to have something that's that's very directional around that 338 00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:51,780 It might hurt you a bit more in the long run, but that but it is what it is 339 00:23:51,780 --> 00:23:54,360 on Tuesday 340 00:23:54,360 --> 00:23:57,800 And this is kind of the kind of the kind of trade that I would like 341 00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,800 somebody with VIX at 342 00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:05,840 559 somebody came in bought 2,000 really late in the day of the October 343 00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:07,800 second 344 00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:10,400 17 calls for a buck 64 345 00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:14,720 That would it know if we got in a decent move to the upside on VIX those would have done 346 00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:20,760 All right, I would have preferred the September 25th calls, but maybe they were hoping for follow-through 347 00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:25,640 Maybe they've got their eye on something else toward the end of the quarter or something like that 348 00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:30,080 On Wednesday Wednesday was a huge huge huge day 349 00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:34,080 a lot of late-day selling of out-of-the-money calls 350 00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:37,480 basically because 351 00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:39,680 They they weren't paying off 352 00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:46,200 So a lot of bailing out on a lot of different out-of-the-money calls starting starting about 330 or so 353 00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:48,560 Which added to the volume there? 354 00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:57,520 Nothing really significant yesterday and then today I did I did find a trader that had 355 00:24:59,120 --> 00:25:01,120 That purchased 356 00:25:01,120 --> 00:25:06,120 1100 of the September 25th 18 calls on Tuesday 357 00:25:06,120 --> 00:25:12,160 They paid a buck seven for them and they got out today and they sold those at 54 cents 358 00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:15,080 and again 359 00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:21,680 You know that I mean that that those options held their value a little bit, you know, they go off the board next Wednesday and 360 00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:24,560 of course, you know 361 00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:29,720 Bix didn't spike but you know it but but and if it had 362 00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:33,240 You know if they had sold some options against those 18 calls 363 00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:38,240 I just worry about how you go about monetizing that if you're gonna do something like that 364 00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:41,480 You want to go old-school Jim bitman? 365 00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:44,560 bitman used to like to 366 00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:48,880 Buy a call spread and if we got a big move in one direction 367 00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:52,040 He would turn it into a bearish spread during the week 368 00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:54,920 Expecting that we talked out at some point 369 00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:57,720 so if you're gonna do something like 370 00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:01,420 Buying the 22 calls and selling the 25 calls 371 00:26:01,420 --> 00:26:06,720 25 is should be your price level where you think we're gonna top out and 372 00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:11,020 Maybe you sell that in the money call and buy a farther out of the money call 373 00:26:11,020 --> 00:26:16,200 And and try to play both legs of a VIX spike in a big VIX reversion 374 00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:22,520 Yes, I remember you like to over bees fly from a few weeks ago. I did and I straight vertical 375 00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:24,520 Not the straight vertical not a fan of the snow 376 00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:29,280 No, and again that that one left you some really nice upside 377 00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:34,420 He also that one was not if I remember correctly that one wasn't necessarily 378 00:26:34,420 --> 00:26:37,120 pinpointing an event 379 00:26:37,120 --> 00:26:43,280 Although his timing was absolutely impeccable. I almost feel like he needs to be dr. VIX now not me 380 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:45,280 but 381 00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:49,800 His timing was really good on it. We just got kind of an unexpected spike 382 00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:55,040 I think the trade was on with the anticipation that we would get a quick move up at some point 383 00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:58,000 Maybe even through the Fed net announcement 384 00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:04,080 I can't remember the expiration dates on those but it wasn't quite the same as targeting us 385 00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:09,880 You know extra volatility around the Fed and then we didn't get the extra volatility around the Fed. That is true 386 00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:15,480 It was more of a less situational I should say but intriguing stuff. Nonetheless. I liked it. It worked out pretty well 387 00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:18,120 So I think I've all yeah all of our listeners who put it on 388 00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:24,720 Did pretty well on that one. Let's see what's what's going up. What's doing well in VIX options this week 389 00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:33,120 Listener, shall we coming into Showtime? We are hanging out a seven to three calls over put so put still fairly well represented in our 390 00:27:33,120 --> 00:27:38,880 Top ten but not quite the four we had last week or 50/50 we had not too long ago 391 00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,760 But we are starting to come back down the other side of it listener 392 00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:47,240 So you'd expect some of those some of those puts to go off the board. Let's start number ten. It cost you 393 00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:52,080 91,000 contracts to break into the top ten in VIX land this week 394 00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:57,040 So starting to come back to earth a little bit that gets us to the oc 21 395 00:27:57,040 --> 00:28:00,940 So right back to a little bit of upside if you want more upside, how about number nine? 396 00:28:00,940 --> 00:28:03,320 200,000 exactly of the Jan 397 00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:08,600 42 halves the meatball was saying he likes Jan now maybe maybe he likes the Jan 42 half 398 00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:12,480 You know, he loves a good a good far out of the money strike number eight 399 00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:16,920 203,000 of our first of three puts on the list the oc 16 puts 400 00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:19,200 number seven 401 00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:23,800 225,000 of the oc 50 so right back to the upside goodness number six 402 00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:25,920 229,000 of the oc 403 00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:30,800 20s a number five two hundred thirty six thousand of the no doubles the no 55 404 00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:36,360 So we are all over the upside this week listeners number four two hundred thirty seven thousand of the October 405 00:28:36,360 --> 00:28:44,520 19th number three twenty fifty nine thousand of the oc 18 puts who would trade the oc 18 puts in October in VIX 406 00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:50,440 I mean what kind of a madman would have those in their back pocket number two two hundred seventy two thousand of the oc 407 00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:56,120 15 puts now we're talking 15 and then what the big dog out here this week 408 00:28:56,120 --> 00:29:00,000 Listeners a much smaller obviously with SEP rolling off the board 409 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:08,000 285,000 of the no 35 has been a while since we've been this light for the number one spot 285 410 00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:13,800 So intriguing stuff are quite the smattering. We're all over the place. We got a bunch of puts. We got 35 411 00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:19,920 We got doubles. We've got 42 half's 21s 20s even some 19 sprinkled in their listeners 412 00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:24,200 So you really have an embarrassment of riches on the top 10 this week 413 00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:30,320 Unfortunately, not really an embarrassment of riches on the volume front this week, which again 414 00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:37,880 That week you'd be forgiven for expecting it certainly in the latter half of the week some paper to kick in 415 00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:43,720 I know earlier in the week. We had some some lightness out there some of our guests 416 00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:45,840 in the studio this week were 417 00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:47,520 lamenting the 418 00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:51,360 Just sit on your hands attitude a lot of people were having this week going into the Fed 419 00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:54,500 We didn't see a lot of paper going up with the exception of Tuesday 420 00:29:54,500 --> 00:29:56,200 I think you can probably guess why in a second 421 00:29:56,200 --> 00:30:01,560 But it was a light week and even coming out of the Fed not exactly light in the world on fire like today 422 00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:06,580 426,000 contracts on the tape. We are still kind of whipsaw on a little bit out there 423 00:30:06,580 --> 00:30:10,380 So you think maybe a little bit more paper, but not today or the big dog today? 424 00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:18,320 25,000 of the oc 17 puts I hope those blow the doors off a number two forty three thousand of the nove 17 puts number three 425 00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:25,200 22,000 of the oc 18 puts again only a madman would trade that strike number four 14,000 of the oc 426 00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:31,280 22s and number five thirteen thousand of the oc 40s. I don't know maybe maybe mr. 427 00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:37,320 Rhodes likes that vertical the oc 22 40 he loves a good of the money vertical as we just heard Thursday 428 00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:40,440 679 thousand on the tapes again 429 00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:48,120 Right after the Fed we saw crazy whipsaw the day before yesterday of course was a full-on bullish mode day 430 00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:53,720 Vicks historically doesn't love that and that was the case again yesterday 679 431 00:30:53,720 --> 00:31:00,600 Thousand contracts on the tape of the big dog though. There was some there was a big print 107,000 of the oc 432 00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:04,320 21s that was nearly 1/7 of the paper going up yesterday 433 00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:10,520 Then next we have number two 61,000 so getting cut pretty much in half with the oc 18 puts number 350 434 00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:13,520 6,000 of the oc 18 calls number for 435 00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,760 38,000 of the October doubles so you know what? 436 00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:20,320 Knows too far for you you like a little bit of double strike though 437 00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:27,880 38,000 of the oc doubles are your huckleberry yesterday and the 24,000 for number five of the October 30 calls 438 00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:30,240 Wednesday Fed Day I 439 00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:34,800 Get it people sitting on their hands the first half of the session because they're waiting for the big announcement 440 00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:39,520 Second half of the session we're whipsawing all over the place balls moving things are rocking and rolling 441 00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:46,420 You would expect maybe a little bit more paper on the tape than six hundred and fifty four thousand contracts 442 00:31:46,420 --> 00:31:51,680 That's pretty much what we got listeners the big dog again, you know Fed Day. It's kind of it's kind of crazy 443 00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:55,480 We actually had to you know, double check these numbers just to make sure everything was working and it was 444 00:31:55,480 --> 00:32:05,060 44,000 of the oc 19 calls that is your big dog on a hotly anticipated Fed Day where they surprised a lot of people 445 00:32:05,060 --> 00:32:07,340 I won't say everyone obviously but a lot of people and 446 00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:09,960 Going half point as opposed to quarter point 447 00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:17,360 44,000 of the oc 19 that's the best we could muster number two thirty nine thousand of the oc 19 put so 19 strike 448 00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:22,800 Where the action was on Wednesday number three thirty six thousand of the nove. Oh, here we go. No of 85s 449 00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:31,560 That's what I'm looking for on a Fed Day and those were all opening in case you needed confirmation of that because of course they 450 00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:33,960 were but 451 00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:37,360 36,000 of the nov 85 calls 452 00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:42,640 If I had to guess that's probably the other half of something that didn't make it into our top five in the past 453 00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:45,000 These have been ratios. So let's hope it's some 454 00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:50,880 Really funky ratio. Maybe they're going back to that stupid. We were talking about before the spying all the other money strikes 455 00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:56,360 number four we got 35,000 of the oc 17 puts and number 5 456 00:32:56,360 --> 00:33:03,340 34,000 of the oc 25s Tuesday was the big dog. We actually got an M handle for the week 1.01 million 457 00:33:03,340 --> 00:33:09,360 so just barely making it of course Tuesday heading into Sep roll and off the board there and 458 00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:12,840 98,000 was the big dog on 459 00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:18,340 Tuesday of the sept 20s a number two seventy eight thousand of the sep 17 puts number three 460 00:33:18,340 --> 00:33:23,160 46,000 of the oc doubles once again, what's with the 55 strike this week listeners? 461 00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:31,040 Are we in that are we in that range again? Are the 55 starting to look attractive number four forty two thousand of the sep 462 00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:37,480 18s and rounding out the top five on pretty much the most active day of the week forty thousand exactly of the no 463 00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:44,940 37 calls so once again, we are all over the place Monday kicking off Fed week with not really a bang 464 00:33:44,940 --> 00:33:49,820 Not really a whimper kind of a shrug your shoulders not even hitting the adv that day though 465 00:33:49,820 --> 00:33:52,680 701,000 contracts on the tape on 466 00:33:52,680 --> 00:34:00,900 Monday the big dog 54 almost 55,000 of the sep 17 puts followed by number 240 almost 41,000 of the d20s 467 00:34:01,220 --> 00:34:03,860 number three 37,000 of the oc 50s 468 00:34:03,860 --> 00:34:10,660 So right back to the upside list and number four thirty seven thousand of the oc 19s and number five thirty two almost thirty three 469 00:34:10,660 --> 00:34:13,220 thousand of the sep 18 so 470 00:34:13,220 --> 00:34:16,740 And we were all over the place on that 471 00:34:16,740 --> 00:34:25,100 That paper this week listeners pick a strike and it probably lit up our top five somewhere this week. Mr. Meatball kind of a strange 472 00:34:25,100 --> 00:34:27,820 smattering of paper this week including 473 00:34:28,140 --> 00:34:33,820 I'd hate to say the return the revenge of but a lot of funky upside doubles 50s 474 00:34:33,820 --> 00:34:38,900 Are we in that time of year again, sir? No 85s. Is that what we're looking at now, sir? 475 00:34:38,900 --> 00:34:41,460 You know 476 00:34:41,460 --> 00:34:48,060 It was an interesting week, I mean it's ahead of the Fed you expect to see kind of some funky paper 477 00:34:48,060 --> 00:34:52,260 interesting today the biggest trade was a 478 00:34:52,260 --> 00:34:55,900 buyer of the October 17 puts 479 00:34:56,820 --> 00:34:58,820 outright by of 480 00:34:58,820 --> 00:35:00,820 about 80,000 of them 481 00:35:00,820 --> 00:35:03,660 so to Russell's point they 482 00:35:03,660 --> 00:35:08,780 It looks like they bought those and sold so Russell you actually you'll like this 483 00:35:08,780 --> 00:35:13,020 There this is the biggest trade of the day. They did this kind of near the open. They sold 484 00:35:13,020 --> 00:35:16,020 39,000 of the no 17 puts at 485 00:35:16,020 --> 00:35:19,140 196 to buy 486 00:35:19,140 --> 00:35:22,940 78,000 of the ox 17 puts at 86 cents 487 00:35:22,940 --> 00:35:29,740 I like that as a kind of curve flattener trade makes a ton of sense to me 488 00:35:29,740 --> 00:35:35,940 That one that might be my favorite trade of the week and it just went up today 489 00:35:35,940 --> 00:35:38,260 Yeah 490 00:35:38,260 --> 00:35:42,140 We had on third on third on Thursday 491 00:35:42,140 --> 00:35:49,420 Seller of the oc 18 puts to buy the oc 21 puts on a ratio. Not sure. I love that one 492 00:35:49,420 --> 00:35:52,380 lots of oc 55s 493 00:35:53,260 --> 00:35:56,780 October 30 is going up. Definitely another busy one 494 00:35:56,780 --> 00:36:06,020 On the 18th ahead of the Fed yeah a lot of out-of-the-money stuff you kind of expect that because 495 00:36:06,020 --> 00:36:10,300 Nobody knows exactly what's gonna gonna happen. So they're thinking. Oh, that's the Fed 496 00:36:10,300 --> 00:36:15,460 I don't know what to do and then yeah more of that as we head in mark 497 00:36:15,460 --> 00:36:18,420 This isn't VIX, but I thought it was kind of interesting 498 00:36:18,420 --> 00:36:20,700 prior to the 499 00:36:20,700 --> 00:36:22,700 prior to the Fed 500 00:36:22,700 --> 00:36:23,820 and 501 00:36:23,820 --> 00:36:28,020 This is kind of along those lines. It's definitely a ball play we saw 502 00:36:28,020 --> 00:36:31,280 In an ETF that doesn't trade a lot of options 503 00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:33,700 MTU M 504 00:36:33,700 --> 00:36:35,700 momentum 505 00:36:35,700 --> 00:36:37,860 I want to say it was 506 00:36:37,860 --> 00:36:44,700 Wednesday they did the trade. Yeah Wednesday. They did this kind of 507 00:36:44,700 --> 00:36:49,700 weird ratio bearish condor II thing 508 00:36:50,700 --> 00:36:54,180 that points toward and momentum basically is 509 00:36:54,180 --> 00:37:02,260 You know, it's a high beta stock stocks that are gonna be moving higher and they were setting up in this near retreated ETF 510 00:37:02,260 --> 00:37:04,940 a bunch of 511 00:37:04,940 --> 00:37:12,620 bearish put like a bearish complex put trade makes me wonder whether you know people are getting a little nervous for October 512 00:37:13,900 --> 00:37:20,620 Yeah, we don't talk about the the iShares MSCI USA momentum factor ETF 513 00:37:20,620 --> 00:37:27,020 That often say that one five times fast listeners. I'm guessing not a ton of paper going up there on a regular basis 514 00:37:27,020 --> 00:37:30,100 Let's see. What is the what is the ADV and everyone's favorite? Oh 515 00:37:30,100 --> 00:37:33,620 2,300 is more than I thought 516 00:37:33,620 --> 00:37:35,700 27 contracts today though. So looking 517 00:37:35,700 --> 00:37:42,700 Looking kind of light out there today, but you're right. That is kind of funky also that that put spread you talked about was funky 518 00:37:42,700 --> 00:37:46,980 I know for a lot of our listeners that kind of reverse calendar gives them the heebie-jeebies 519 00:37:46,980 --> 00:37:52,260 They can't wrap their head around being long the near dated contract and then short the longer dated one 520 00:37:52,260 --> 00:37:54,140 It's kind of backwards to them 521 00:37:54,140 --> 00:37:58,180 But in the case of VIX where we're seeing the term structure looking the way it is 522 00:37:58,180 --> 00:38:02,540 That makes a certain amount of sense. So would you say that's your VIX trade of the week, sir that reverse calendar? 523 00:38:02,540 --> 00:38:08,640 Yeah, I really I think that's that might be my favorite area of the week. I'd love Russell's opinion on that one 524 00:38:10,060 --> 00:38:14,820 Mr. Rhodes, are you down with that? And then also you mentioned here our chat some data you've crunched about 525 00:38:14,820 --> 00:38:20,020 Historic vol sellers drying up after vol events. You want to share that with our folks? 526 00:38:20,020 --> 00:38:25,260 Stick with what Mark Sebastian was talking about there for a second 527 00:38:25,260 --> 00:38:31,380 So I was looking at the momentum ETF just to get a quick handle on it. What trade did you say you saw? 528 00:38:31,380 --> 00:38:35,000 One night they bought the 190 puts 529 00:38:35,620 --> 00:38:41,180 So the 188 puts the the one has bought 5500 the 190 is an arc 530 00:38:41,180 --> 00:38:45,180 So the 188 sold the 184 is bought the 180 twos 531 00:38:45,180 --> 00:38:49,720 5500 by 3850 by 3850 by 1650 532 00:38:49,720 --> 00:38:54,200 And that's and that's gonna help them on the downside. Correct? Yep 533 00:38:54,200 --> 00:39:00,700 Yeah, that's and that's exactly what you would want to do from a from a fundamental standpoint and 534 00:39:00,700 --> 00:39:05,260 I'm shifting my I'm putting on my academic hat here 535 00:39:05,420 --> 00:39:06,660 but 536 00:39:06,660 --> 00:39:11,340 you know you probably if if if if that's right and 537 00:39:11,340 --> 00:39:15,440 we're gonna see the kind of slowing that they indicated by 538 00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:20,740 Admitting that they think they're gonna have to cut more than then they had been saying they were gonna have to 539 00:39:20,740 --> 00:39:24,660 you're gonna be more interested in value stocks than momentum stocks and 540 00:39:24,660 --> 00:39:28,620 I think you know a bearish position in momentum 541 00:39:28,620 --> 00:39:32,840 It might even be a good hedge if you've got a well-diversified portfolio 542 00:39:33,140 --> 00:39:39,300 Where you you know, that's where you're identifying an underperforming factor over time 543 00:39:39,300 --> 00:39:46,780 You know in the academic space everybody loves talked about academic about factor investing. I honestly had not looked at factor ETFs 544 00:39:46,780 --> 00:39:50,740 Thank you for creating more work for me this weekend and then 545 00:39:50,740 --> 00:39:56,700 just you guys were talking about how the volume in the VIX complex has been a little anemic and 546 00:39:56,700 --> 00:40:00,460 you know, I did work for SIBO for a little while and 547 00:40:01,020 --> 00:40:08,360 Goodness knows that when you know, whenever VIX volumes were not going particularly well, there was always the what the heck's going on here 548 00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:09,580 I 549 00:40:09,580 --> 00:40:13,380 did a little I did a little volume study a while back and 550 00:40:13,380 --> 00:40:21,620 looked at after we get what I refer to as a volatility event and we did have a volatility event in early August it does 551 00:40:21,620 --> 00:40:23,780 frighten out some of the 552 00:40:23,780 --> 00:40:27,340 Volatility the short volatility guys 553 00:40:27,340 --> 00:40:33,420 In fact, you saw the number of shares outstanding on SVI X go up and then come right back down 554 00:40:33,420 --> 00:40:35,900 just a couple of weeks after 555 00:40:35,900 --> 00:40:42,340 That volatility spike where where some people try to take advantage of it and then some other people just bailed out the best they could 556 00:40:42,340 --> 00:40:46,020 and I think that my theory has always been a 557 00:40:46,020 --> 00:40:51,140 Fewer fewer people that are willing to get short volatility 558 00:40:53,060 --> 00:40:57,940 Results in VIX or the VIX derivatives being a bit elevated price wise for some time 559 00:40:57,940 --> 00:41:00,620 So the law anybody's thinking about doing something longs 560 00:41:00,620 --> 00:41:05,820 maybe not particularly interested and it just takes a while for all the participants to 561 00:41:05,820 --> 00:41:10,700 Reenter the market and the average I came up with back in the day was five months 562 00:41:10,700 --> 00:41:15,020 I always seem like it took about five months before we got back to 563 00:41:15,020 --> 00:41:17,620 record volume or close to record volume 564 00:41:18,700 --> 00:41:23,980 After 2020, I think it took a longer time than that. So I don't know if that pattern holds up anymore 565 00:41:23,980 --> 00:41:29,380 But I do think that's why every week that I've been on now that I'm on it seems like I went every week 566 00:41:29,380 --> 00:41:33,680 Which is great. Don't take that as a complaint. It seems like when you start to go through the volume 567 00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:38,120 We're talking about how it's a bit anemic. I think we had one really busy week 568 00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:42,260 since early August and I 569 00:41:42,260 --> 00:41:47,820 I'm going with what we figured out back when I was at SIBO and then of course the next step 570 00:41:47,820 --> 00:41:49,820 We were trying to figure out from firm risk management 571 00:41:49,820 --> 00:41:57,420 If if SIBO as an entity should be doing any sort of corporate finance hedging trades 572 00:41:57,420 --> 00:42:03,500 To offset lower volumes after the volatility spikes. We never really came up with anything cool with that or 573 00:42:03,500 --> 00:42:06,940 If they're doing something around that I'm not there to do it anymore 574 00:42:06,940 --> 00:42:09,700 interesting 575 00:42:09,700 --> 00:42:16,300 That's that's the long shot. It was typically about five months and and then also that was going through 576 00:42:16,300 --> 00:42:18,980 You know when I was at SIBO helping promote VIX 577 00:42:18,980 --> 00:42:23,680 You know volumes just grew and grew and grew and it was all cuz of me 578 00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:26,940 Everybody knows I'm being sarcastic, right? 579 00:42:26,940 --> 00:42:32,860 But um, but we were on a really nice upward trajectory that trajectory is not the same anymore 580 00:42:32,860 --> 00:42:36,260 So that five month again might not hold up 581 00:42:36,260 --> 00:42:42,500 But we would always see a drop-off in volume after a volatility event just took a little while for the sake of the show 582 00:42:42,500 --> 00:42:46,360 Let's hope that data is no longer accurate sir five months gone. We 583 00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:51,780 Mr. Trump and mrs. Herra or miss Harris, they'll make sure 584 00:42:51,780 --> 00:42:55,100 We said that last time you said that in 2016 585 00:42:55,100 --> 00:43:00,780 We said the one thing Trump is not is not a single-digit VIX president and he turned out to be 586 00:43:00,780 --> 00:43:05,260 Exactly that so it's amazing how he may not have been all that bad, huh? 587 00:43:05,260 --> 00:43:09,700 It's crazy. I'm staying out of politics, but you know 588 00:43:10,340 --> 00:43:15,360 If you like a vix going to like terrible VIX going to nine and sitting there forever, I guess yeah 589 00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:22,440 He was awesome. But yeah, talk about a surprise development. You mentioned as VIX. Let's get on to your beloved as VIX 590 00:43:22,440 --> 00:43:24,980 2860 right now. So 591 00:43:24,980 --> 00:43:29,920 Climbing that wall back up. I think I have a few vestigial calls in my back pocket 592 00:43:29,920 --> 00:43:32,820 I have to babysit those today see where I can get those off 593 00:43:32,820 --> 00:43:36,500 But up six-tenths of a point was literally hunched right as we kicked off the show 594 00:43:36,820 --> 00:43:44,220 As as Russell alluded to volume kind of coming back down the 80s 11,000 contracts right now down 595 00:43:44,220 --> 00:43:47,260 5,000 from where it was this time of week ago 596 00:43:47,260 --> 00:43:51,580 That's a huge chunk coming off the top in that's VIX. They cannot afford to shed 597 00:43:51,580 --> 00:43:58,360 5,000 contracts a day in this product. They need to go the other way today also only 5,000 contracts on the tape 598 00:43:58,360 --> 00:44:02,260 So yeah, if you're looking for s VIX liquidity to improve 599 00:44:02,260 --> 00:44:07,380 This is not the trend you want the big dog out there right now. Sep 40s 600 00:44:07,380 --> 00:44:14,380 3,300 of those bad boys looks like they're going the way of the dodo unless we have if we hit 40 by the end of the 601 00:44:14,380 --> 00:44:19,480 Day today, then something is really going going wonky out there. Mr. Meatball 602 00:44:19,480 --> 00:44:24,660 You've been all over s VIX these days with your latest addition to the pit offerings 603 00:44:24,660 --> 00:44:26,700 What's catching your eye out there in s fix land? 604 00:44:26,700 --> 00:44:31,140 Well, you know when you look at the numbers you're saying s VIX should be screaming higher 605 00:44:31,140 --> 00:44:33,140 But then you realize that there's this weird 606 00:44:33,140 --> 00:44:35,940 kink from the election 607 00:44:35,940 --> 00:44:42,380 That is keeping s fix from doing that but you know if you look 608 00:44:42,380 --> 00:44:46,940 it since kind of bottoming on on 609 00:44:46,940 --> 00:44:50,620 99 it's it's up 610 00:44:50,620 --> 00:44:58,280 What call it $3 and making that nice slow progressive progression higher? 611 00:44:59,340 --> 00:45:04,940 you know and on a daily basis it is going it is moving higher and 612 00:45:04,940 --> 00:45:08,060 I expect that to continue to 613 00:45:08,060 --> 00:45:11,740 to to gain higher we use a 614 00:45:11,740 --> 00:45:17,780 Calculation we called our yield zone right now that is in our in kind of the sweet spot 615 00:45:17,780 --> 00:45:22,100 So if there we are currently just long the shares 616 00:45:23,860 --> 00:45:30,940 Yield zone. I like that. It sounds like like something at a theme park the hit the yield zone dunk the person in the booth 617 00:45:30,940 --> 00:45:37,780 Mister mister Rhodes, sir. What's what's catching your eye? You still long s vixen writing calls you up to something else? 618 00:45:37,780 --> 00:45:44,260 Yeah, I got some 28 calls. So I will and when I say got that means I'm short 619 00:45:44,260 --> 00:45:48,180 So I'll I'll be down to about a half position 620 00:45:48,180 --> 00:45:53,540 Honestly, I have been pretty much working down all of my positions 621 00:45:53,660 --> 00:46:00,140 I I just sometimes I feel like it's time to start things over and I've 622 00:46:00,140 --> 00:46:08,540 As soon as I get out of everything the SMP 500 will go down 30% because I've been fighting short with the SMP versus 623 00:46:08,540 --> 00:46:14,100 short volatility at the same time and it's it's wearing me out so I'm uh 624 00:46:14,100 --> 00:46:18,260 I've been thinking about doing a reset for the last quarter of the year and 625 00:46:18,980 --> 00:46:25,300 And so I probably will not replace that s vix. I'll just like I'll still well 626 00:46:25,300 --> 00:46:30,340 I know I'll still have like half a position in it, but I've been taken I 627 00:46:30,340 --> 00:46:33,940 I'm usually 628 00:46:33,940 --> 00:46:38,700 Very well invested like have a bunch of different things going on and right now 629 00:46:38,700 --> 00:46:45,460 I've got I've got the short volatility ETF. I'm short the SMP 500 futures and I'm short China and that's it 630 00:46:47,140 --> 00:46:52,580 Shorted it all normally. Normally. I have five to ten different kind of macro type positions on but I've 631 00:46:52,580 --> 00:46:58,700 I've been scaling back a bit part of it. So I'm doing a lot of conference traveling. I am going to RMC. Oh 632 00:46:58,700 --> 00:47:06,660 I don't think I am but I'll have to out to confirm with the with the super producer what the travel schedule is 633 00:47:06,660 --> 00:47:09,260 But why would travel why would travel curtail your trade? 634 00:47:09,260 --> 00:47:15,060 I don't understand to a conference like why I'm why would be doing it cuz cuz cuz a lot of things 635 00:47:15,060 --> 00:47:17,280 I'm joking. Okay, obviously get it 636 00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:23,400 Yeah, I thought you were asking for the audience I 637 00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:29,800 Knew you knew it but I just I think I was going I was going to teacher mode 638 00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:32,700 Which is what I did. My guest was a little late on 639 00:47:32,700 --> 00:47:35,420 Right as the Fed announcement was coming out 640 00:47:35,420 --> 00:47:39,660 So I was able to get a couple of VIX trades off in the five minutes that I had to spare 641 00:47:39,940 --> 00:47:46,680 But yeah, it's look at I was out of your UVIX trade the best weekend ever because I was traveling that weekend as well 642 00:47:46,680 --> 00:47:53,900 So sometimes the travel comes home to roost speaking of UVIX 430 down two tenths of a point from where it was this time 643 00:47:53,900 --> 00:47:59,460 Last week 16,000 on the tape today. The adb is 35,000 doesn't seem like we're getting there today 644 00:47:59,460 --> 00:48:03,660 But you never know the end of the day could be crazy. Mr. Mr. Rose. You mentioned your spooked 645 00:48:03,660 --> 00:48:07,260 You mentioned you're kind of unwinding some stuff. There is some 646 00:48:08,380 --> 00:48:14,580 Potential for some action over this weekend things starting to light up again the Middle East a few other hot spots 647 00:48:14,580 --> 00:48:18,860 Maybe flaring up. Are you are you rocking the old UVIX weekend trade again this weekend? 648 00:48:18,860 --> 00:48:21,820 Absolutely 649 00:48:21,820 --> 00:48:24,020 Absolutely 650 00:48:24,020 --> 00:48:28,980 It's always kind of an interesting weekend that I I 651 00:48:28,980 --> 00:48:32,700 Every Friday I could probably come up with some sort of 652 00:48:32,700 --> 00:48:36,140 You know hypothetical that that's gonna help us out 653 00:48:36,780 --> 00:48:43,700 They they're not friendly hypotheticals and people might start to investigate me or have me locked up or something. But 654 00:48:43,700 --> 00:48:45,980 You know 655 00:48:45,980 --> 00:48:51,660 When the Middle East is by far always one of them those guys are gonna keep going tit for tat 656 00:48:51,660 --> 00:48:57,700 I'm just glad that I had just given up my beeper like three weeks ago. I was gonna say pager bombers 657 00:48:57,700 --> 00:49:00,220 What are we doing? Are we striking back at 1980? 658 00:49:00,220 --> 00:49:04,940 But yeah pager bomb who had that on their bingo card for this week 659 00:49:04,940 --> 00:49:08,680 I certainly did not you would think that that is in front of something big 660 00:49:08,680 --> 00:49:14,540 That's the kind of thing that you would do if you were getting ready to make a big move. So in that is possible 661 00:49:14,540 --> 00:49:20,460 Munching advance they had to bomb them at the factory before they got shipped over. That was a long time in the works 662 00:49:20,460 --> 00:49:23,100 You're right. There perhaps our other shoes yet to drop 663 00:49:23,100 --> 00:49:28,100 All right. My dad said years ago once he said you just don't mess with Israel 664 00:49:29,900 --> 00:49:36,820 Well, we'll see. Yeah pager bombers that shows a wee bit of patience. Is this your weekend to put on the UVIX trade listeners? 665 00:49:36,820 --> 00:49:44,240 I don't know. Have you have you flirted at all with this Russell's weekly or we should say weekend UVIX trade, sir 666 00:49:44,240 --> 00:49:50,100 What do you know it's not it it fits with my strategy. I'm thinking about playing with it 667 00:49:50,100 --> 00:49:56,740 You know now that UVIX is down to four dollars and thirty cents, you know 668 00:49:56,740 --> 00:50:01,520 Maybe I will buy a hundred shares over the weekend just for giggles 100 lot. Look at you. We were slinging 669 00:50:01,520 --> 00:50:06,380 I know I'm gonna go crazy guys and we got we got run over. So maybe a hundred lots of the way to go 670 00:50:06,380 --> 00:50:11,120 I'm looking right now at UVIX at the top-sized positions and UVIX right now 671 00:50:11,120 --> 00:50:15,660 Listen is the big dog almost eleven thousand of the oc5 calls 672 00:50:15,660 --> 00:50:21,360 so I had to go dig at this because those those kind of leaped off the page and I don't remember seeing that many before and 673 00:50:21,360 --> 00:50:25,780 Yeah, they started loading up on these back on August 13th 674 00:50:25,780 --> 00:50:30,700 So they paid a pretty penny for these when the UVIX was around 588 675 00:50:30,700 --> 00:50:34,540 They paid two dollars and nineteen cents for these five calls in 676 00:50:34,540 --> 00:50:37,340 UVIX Wow 677 00:50:37,340 --> 00:50:39,540 Wow, that's a lot to pay for calls 678 00:50:39,540 --> 00:50:45,100 And they're still open listeners and you fix is that a 430 so go go mixes 679 00:50:45,100 --> 00:50:52,660 You vix mark you vix is losing about three cents a day. So if I think vol's gonna hold up you could sell the 680 00:50:53,300 --> 00:51:01,240 the UVIX four dollar put for next Friday at ten cents and by the five dollar put call for 15 and 681 00:51:01,240 --> 00:51:05,580 that would be kind of an alternative way of buying your 682 00:51:05,580 --> 00:51:11,980 Your your play if we get like a real pop doing Russell's way just spitballing here 683 00:51:11,980 --> 00:51:14,580 Yeah, I have been I have been toying around with 684 00:51:14,580 --> 00:51:18,980 Alternative ways to do it using the options. You're right. It is a little challenging 685 00:51:19,700 --> 00:51:23,800 Just ask this person who spent to 25 calls on that one's working out 686 00:51:23,800 --> 00:51:26,220 But yeah, I don't hate that nickel outlay and you're right 687 00:51:26,220 --> 00:51:31,900 Then you're in you're definitely defended against the last minute one thing I won't be doing is if I do play with it again 688 00:51:31,900 --> 00:51:38,060 I know Russell you like buying it a couple of hours before the close. That's too much UVIX Delta risk for me 689 00:51:38,060 --> 00:51:39,460 I've seen it whipsaw too many times 690 00:51:39,460 --> 00:51:42,700 I have a point and that even when it's down around the four dollar range 691 00:51:42,700 --> 00:51:48,220 So I like you know buy it on clothes sell on the open just literally just only going for the weekend risk 692 00:51:48,500 --> 00:51:52,460 But you like playing a little closer to the fire. You like buying it a couple hours at a time, right, sir 693 00:51:52,460 --> 00:51:56,100 Honestly, it depends on what I'm doing this afternoon 694 00:51:56,100 --> 00:52:02,340 So sometimes sometimes I'll buy it shortly after the program 695 00:52:02,340 --> 00:52:08,980 Just to make sure I don't miss it heaven forbid if I had missed it that weekend that that it almost doubled 696 00:52:08,980 --> 00:52:13,540 I would have been you know what if I had done that I probably wouldn't have admitted it to you guys 697 00:52:13,540 --> 00:52:17,660 Hey, I admitted it I was traveling 698 00:52:17,700 --> 00:52:21,540 You could have it's a fun eye. Yeah, I I 699 00:52:21,540 --> 00:52:25,500 Wanted I did forget it one time 700 00:52:25,500 --> 00:52:28,060 Thank goodness not that weekend 701 00:52:28,060 --> 00:52:31,660 So if I feel like I'm gonna get distracted in the afternoon 702 00:52:31,660 --> 00:52:37,740 I'll usually buy it shortly after you and I are done chatting that that's good. That's kind of been my theme 703 00:52:37,740 --> 00:52:42,720 So they go. Yeah, there you go listeners. Let us know if you're playing around this one 704 00:52:42,720 --> 00:52:47,660 Have you found a way to go about it that that you're comfortable with a UV XY? 705 00:52:47,660 --> 00:52:53,980 2384 when we kicked off the show 31,000 contracts on the tape 706 00:52:53,980 --> 00:52:57,140 That doesn't seem like much for you BX why let me rerack it right now 707 00:52:57,140 --> 00:53:04,280 See if they put up a little bit more paper since we've been talking and yeah, they're hotter now. I actually had about a 708 00:53:04,280 --> 00:53:09,860 80,000 contracts now looks like that was some old thought that sounded wrong old data there 709 00:53:10,260 --> 00:53:15,220 80,000 contract which is only a thousand off of their 80,000, excuse me, which is down about 2,000 710 00:53:15,220 --> 00:53:18,020 So UV XY amongst all the vol products we're talking about 711 00:53:18,020 --> 00:53:24,000 Managing to maintain its ad be pretty much so the UV XY Defense Force can be 712 00:53:24,000 --> 00:53:27,660 Excited on that one the big dog positions look like they're all well 713 00:53:27,660 --> 00:53:31,180 There's one pre-split adjusted 10,000 almost 11,000 of these sep 714 00:53:31,180 --> 00:53:33,860 25's so I 715 00:53:33,860 --> 00:53:38,780 Wonder if it's the same guy is about the same paper as UVic same size almost exactly 716 00:53:38,780 --> 00:53:42,820 That would be strange if he bought that set 25 and and the UVic's 717 00:53:42,820 --> 00:53:49,420 That's the case. He probably sold the set so and you mix or you guys why so that could be a decent trade out there 718 00:53:49,420 --> 00:53:54,580 And then VXX just to round us out of the vol ETPs this week VXX 719 00:53:54,580 --> 00:53:58,940 was hanging out at about a 48 right before Showtime a 720 00:53:58,940 --> 00:54:07,260 4730 right now which puts it down about 7/10 of a point out there on the week in terms of 721 00:54:07,460 --> 00:54:10,340 Paper it wasn't lighting the world on fire looking a little bit better now 722 00:54:10,340 --> 00:54:15,820 31,000 contracts on the tape that compares to an ad v of 33,000 which is down about 723 00:54:15,820 --> 00:54:19,640 2,000 as well looking for a size paper out here 724 00:54:19,640 --> 00:54:23,740 We got the same deal a lot of pre-split adjusted nonsense out here. Mr. Meatball 725 00:54:23,740 --> 00:54:26,060 I know you said you've been a little bit more intrigued by VXX 726 00:54:26,060 --> 00:54:33,060 Certainly would have had its dance back up to nearly 60 recently anything catching your eye in VXX or UV XY this week sir 727 00:54:33,060 --> 00:54:34,740 Yeah, you know 728 00:54:34,740 --> 00:54:41,100 Well, I told you my UV XY trade from earlier. Yes. Yes. Yeah, I'm I'm dabbling in some VXX here 729 00:54:41,100 --> 00:54:44,580 I think it's worth a look at a potential short here 730 00:54:44,580 --> 00:54:50,740 Oh, you're back to which puts are you eyeballing here and VXX Lynn? I'm you know, I'm looking in November 731 00:54:50,740 --> 00:54:54,520 I think post election if you look at what vol does after 732 00:54:54,520 --> 00:54:57,420 elections happen even in 2020 733 00:54:57,420 --> 00:55:00,660 the VIX absolutely dove so 734 00:55:00,660 --> 00:55:04,300 November looks kind of tasty to me 735 00:55:05,020 --> 00:55:09,220 So somebody playing in Dease a few weeks ago and they dramatically overpaid for those puts 736 00:55:09,220 --> 00:55:14,620 So sometimes if you go too far out listeners and you pay I have to evolve premium of those puts 737 00:55:14,620 --> 00:55:19,700 I think they're still wearing it on those puts but intriguing stuff. Mr. Mr. Mr 738 00:55:19,700 --> 00:55:24,420 Rhodes anything catching your eye in UV XY or VXX. I know your favorite VXX 739 00:55:24,420 --> 00:55:28,620 early, you know, like like said I'm doing you VI X I 740 00:55:28,620 --> 00:55:32,820 You know continuing to do the trade that I talk about doing 741 00:55:33,340 --> 00:55:40,000 I look at I just I really wish I could get a bit more juice for out of the money calls when I do this 742 00:55:40,000 --> 00:55:43,560 and I even experimented around with 743 00:55:43,560 --> 00:55:47,700 Selling a slightly in the money call that had some time value to it 744 00:55:47,700 --> 00:55:52,420 to see if I could trade out of it better than the the Monday open and 745 00:55:52,420 --> 00:55:55,780 That didn't work worth a damn. I tried that a couple of weeks ago 746 00:55:55,780 --> 00:56:00,820 That became almost like a stuck trade. Like what the hell do I do with it now? 747 00:56:00,820 --> 00:56:06,980 And I ended up just holding it through the whole week and then exiting at the following Monday 748 00:56:06,980 --> 00:56:11,020 So I have been I continue to try to figure out 749 00:56:11,020 --> 00:56:15,660 If I can improve on this thing and I can't I haven't figured it out yet 750 00:56:15,660 --> 00:56:22,480 But nothing can improve upon the crystal ball listeners. So let's head into that we not right now 751 00:56:22,480 --> 00:56:30,500 It's time to peer into the future 752 00:56:30,500 --> 00:56:36,140 And reveal what the volatility gods hold in store. It's time to look into 753 00:56:36,140 --> 00:56:38,780 the crystal ball 754 00:56:38,780 --> 00:56:45,680 All right listeners I was joking at the top of the show it's asking if anybody out there had 755 00:56:45,680 --> 00:56:48,940 15 handled because I know I did I was at a 756 00:56:48,940 --> 00:56:53,300 1576 and right as we kicked it right as the music hit right before the segment started 757 00:56:53,300 --> 00:57:00,100 1586 in Bixlan, which puts us exactly within a tenth of a point exactly within the margin of victory. That's good 758 00:57:00,100 --> 00:57:02,340 I need a little bit of a bullseye. I'm sure if I reracked it right now 759 00:57:02,340 --> 00:57:07,700 We'd we'd be moving again. So sometimes you gotta you gotta catch the bullets right at the right time 760 00:57:07,700 --> 00:57:13,580 Andrew I was on the show last week. He was out of 1499 didn't quite get to a 14 handle 761 00:57:13,580 --> 00:57:17,500 But you know what the day is still young it could still happen and mr 762 00:57:17,500 --> 00:57:21,700 Rhodes was feeling his oats to the upside at 1666 763 00:57:21,700 --> 00:57:28,060 So I get a winner winner chicken dinner, which which feels good being on the road getting a little bit of bullseye action 764 00:57:28,060 --> 00:57:34,100 So tell you what I'll let you let you chew both a mole and I shall go first this week listeners 765 00:57:34,100 --> 00:57:38,580 1576 is where it was this week and you know what? 766 00:57:38,580 --> 00:57:42,700 We had the big catalyst obvious. That's what made this week. So challenging 767 00:57:42,700 --> 00:57:47,900 Well next week not obviously not as big of a catalyst on the board 768 00:57:47,900 --> 00:57:53,520 So I think we could maybe look for maybe a little more unless of course we get this weekend fun popping off 769 00:57:53,520 --> 00:57:57,340 Like we were talking about earlier. I'm gonna hmm. I might say it. I might say 770 00:57:58,180 --> 00:58:00,680 14 I'm gonna say 771 00:58:00,680 --> 00:58:08,860 1485 for this time next week. So yes a 14 handle I have breathed it into 772 00:58:08,860 --> 00:58:13,640 Fertion listeners. Let's see what everybody else has in store. The next closest was 773 00:58:13,640 --> 00:58:19,880 Andrew so actually yeah, actually, you know actually would have been Russell a little bit to the upside. Let's go to Russell then mr 774 00:58:19,880 --> 00:58:22,140 Rhodes, what do you have in store for us next week, sir? 775 00:58:24,380 --> 00:58:30,040 Sweet, huh? I'm sorry. You got cut off at the end. What would you say? I said not a whole lot going on next week 776 00:58:30,040 --> 00:58:32,260 potential news wise 777 00:58:32,260 --> 00:58:35,660 Yeah 778 00:58:35,660 --> 00:58:37,700 1499 oh 779 00:58:37,700 --> 00:58:41,920 Look at you coming right in coming right in I had above me giving me a little bit of breathing room 780 00:58:41,920 --> 00:58:48,420 But no where I'm sorry. Where are we? I thought I thought you'd said 15 something. I said 1485 you can have your 1499 781 00:58:48,420 --> 00:58:54,060 No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I'll do 1515 just to screw with Mark Sebastian because I'll bet that's what he was thinking 782 00:58:54,060 --> 00:59:00,320 I might do that or he might do for 1441 in which case I got 1515 is not palindromic 783 00:59:00,320 --> 00:59:09,100 I'm giving you 1551 is what I'm doing. I well, yeah, no, I'm just debating well at this point 784 00:59:09,100 --> 00:59:11,860 I'm gonna go with 1661 so that I've got some room 785 00:59:11,860 --> 00:59:18,320 Oh, let's you go into the upside getting all that upside all that prices white right upside action to yourself 786 00:59:18,320 --> 00:59:23,260 All right listeners. You got quite the range. You got Russell giving me the smooches down there at 1495 787 00:59:23,260 --> 00:59:30,240 I'm at 1485 and then mr. Mr. Meatball at a palindromically appropriate 788 00:59:30,240 --> 00:59:36,300 1661 all right, that is gonna do it for us on valve use this week 789 00:59:36,300 --> 00:59:42,040 I hope you enjoyed the slew of content coming to you from the Southern studio here at STA more to come 790 00:59:42,040 --> 00:59:48,780 Hitting the pro side first options oddities already up there as we speak right now an early episode of optimal oddities this week 791 00:59:48,780 --> 00:59:53,040 You know this travel the conference is always wreak havoc with the production schedule 792 00:59:53,040 --> 00:59:55,580 But we know what we do it for you folks out there listeners 793 00:59:55,580 --> 00:59:59,020 So stay tuned to the pro you'll be hearing a lot of my chats first up there 794 00:59:59,020 --> 01:00:03,380 They'll be hitting the rest of the network another good reason to be subscribed to the full network 795 01:00:03,380 --> 01:00:05,340 We love everybody listens to ball views we get it 796 01:00:05,340 --> 01:00:11,880 But you got to listen to the full network especially with the new shows hitting futures rundown coming on already at episode three 797 01:00:11,880 --> 01:00:14,420 three years old already 798 01:00:14,420 --> 01:00:19,400 Big number three so make sure you listen into the full network wherever you get this and of course head on over to the pro 799 01:00:19,400 --> 01:00:25,460 If you want access to all that other good stuff the options insider comm slash pro and mr. Meatball 800 01:00:25,460 --> 01:00:29,540 Where should they go if they want to talk s Vicks or Vicks or any of the other fun stuff? 801 01:00:29,540 --> 01:00:32,340 Yeah, just follow me on Twitter at option 802 01:00:32,340 --> 01:00:34,980 We'll get it out there for you folks 803 01:00:34,980 --> 01:00:41,540 There you go at option pit check out some of his archive webinars if you miss miss the live stuff and 804 01:00:41,540 --> 01:00:45,940 Yeah, maybe they want to hit you up about that funky reverse calendar and Vicks 805 01:00:45,940 --> 01:00:49,780 That's certainly an intriguing one not for the timid certainly not for the faint of heart 806 01:00:49,780 --> 01:00:53,200 But if you can handle being a long in the front and short in the back 807 01:00:53,200 --> 01:00:56,660 Then maybe maybe that's the trade for you 808 01:00:56,660 --> 01:01:02,780 Option pit comm the place to go to learn more at option pit on Twitter and mr 809 01:01:02,780 --> 01:01:09,280 Road sir as you're busy recovering from head trauma sir. Where should folks go if they want to they want to check out your goodness 810 01:01:09,280 --> 01:01:14,980 Find me on the Twitter and my full name Russell at Russell Rhodes 811 01:01:14,980 --> 01:01:19,860 Not really anything dramatic coming up 812 01:01:19,860 --> 01:01:23,940 I think I got a webcast in early October 813 01:01:23,940 --> 01:01:27,060 Where I'm gonna take a look where I'm gonna talk about 814 01:01:27,060 --> 01:01:29,620 how the 815 01:01:29,620 --> 01:01:35,280 How the short dated index options have been acting in both in the europe in Europe in the US they have 816 01:01:35,280 --> 01:01:38,980 They have been under pricing for months now 817 01:01:38,980 --> 01:01:45,460 So option sellers have been getting absolutely creamed not just in Vicks but also in the in 818 01:01:45,460 --> 01:01:50,060 The euro stocks 50 and the DACs and the S&P 500 the NASDAQ and the Russell 819 01:01:50,060 --> 01:01:55,860 So I think the big next big thing I'm gonna be doing out there is talking about results in those markets 820 01:01:55,860 --> 01:02:03,860 There you go at Russell Rhodes 2 s's 2 l's are H. O a DS on the Twitter to find him listeners 821 01:02:03,860 --> 01:02:06,300 That's gonna do it for us out of these already up 822 01:02:06,300 --> 01:02:11,380 So if you want to check that out go hit the pro feed take the rest of the weekend off go relax unless you're rocking 823 01:02:11,380 --> 01:02:16,140 Russell's you big straight in which you got a swept by your keyboard a little bit then we'll see you back here on Monday for 824 01:02:16,140 --> 01:02:22,420 The option block I'll be back in the shy town studio by then all the way through to next Friday another episode 825 01:02:22,420 --> 01:02:25,020 volatility views 826 01:02:25,020 --> 01:02:27,020 Stay safe out there everybody 827 01:02:27,020 --> 01:02:35,060 You're listening to the options insider radio network the home of the options podcast for more quality options programs 828 01:02:35,180 --> 01:02:43,460 Visit the options insider dot-com or search for options insider radio network in your podcast provider of choice 829 01:02:43,460 --> 01:02:50,220 Listeners can also access all of our programming through our mobile app available on the iTunes and Google Play stores 830 01:02:50,220 --> 01:02:57,740 Select programs are also available via live stream at mixler.com slash options - insider 831 01:02:57,740 --> 01:03:03,540 That's mi XLR dot-com slash options - insider 832 01:03:03,660 --> 01:03:11,080 Don't forget to follow along with your favorite programs and submit your own questions for the host set twitter.com slash options 833 01:03:11,080 --> 01:03:14,120 stock twits.com slash options 834 01:03:14,120 --> 01:03:21,680 Facebook.com slash the options insider or via questions at the options insider dot-com